Empirical research on drive mechanism of firms＇ environmental management

Firms＇transformation from passive envrionmental management to active environmental management is thekey to solving environmental problems. This paper empirically studies the impact of environmental management incen-tives on environmental management through model construction. Based on the data and reality of China, we can build aconcept model of environmental management driving mechanism, and put forward theoretical hypothesis that can betested： take the 13 environmental management behaviors （EMBs） as substitute of the comprehensiveness, introducecounting variables, and use NB model, Possion Model and Ordered Probit model the regression analysis. The theory andmethods brought forward in this paper will provide references for firms in China to further implement voluntaryenvironmental management, and offer advises and countermeasures for leaders to implement environmental manage-ment effectively.     

金融科技对制造业企业嵌入全球价值链的影响研究——基于世界银行调查数据的实证分析

利用世界银行对中国制造业企业进行的调查数据和北京大学数字金融研究中心编制的北京大学数字普惠金融指数,采用线性概率模型考察了金融科技对我国制造业企业嵌入全球价值链的影响.研究发现:金融科技的发展显著提升了制造业企业嵌入全球价值链的概率.机制检验表明,金融科技发展水平的提高减缓了企业所面临的融资约束,进而促使制造业企业嵌入...     

影响农户水稻品种认知的因素分析——基于江苏省水稻种植农户的调查数据

农户对农作物品种的认知直接影响其农业生产活动的效率,对于农户重复购买优良品种、扩大优良品种的种植面积非常有利。本文利用实证研究方法,以江苏省22县（市）367个农户的调查数据为依据,对农户水稻品种认知的影响因素进行了计量经济分析。研究表明,农户水稻品种认知的影响因素主要有：农业生产决策者是否户主、性别、是否兼业,农户水稻种植面积,农户购种对象,农户所处经济区域,农户换种是否因为种子广告、是否因为农技人员推荐以及是否因为政府良种补贴政策等,农户水稻品种认知随着这些因素的变化而变化。     

车辆装备维修器材战备储备量的优化

分析了影响车辆装备维修器材消耗的因素,提出了战时车辆装备维修器材战斗损伤消耗量和磨损消耗量的计算方法,构建了车辆装备维修器材的储备概率模型,对准确、客观地确定新型车辆装备维修器材战备储备量有着重要的理论意义和应用价值。     

金融危机下的保险监管分析

相对于别的产业偿付能力所带来的影响,保险公司的偿付能力对于消费者来说,即使是对于整个社会来说,都是至关重要的。因此,建立一个高效合理的保险监督体系对于保险产业乃至于金融市场都有着至关重要的作用。全球金融危机后,保险监管当局开始反思现有的保险监管模式,并开始将眼光投向概率模型和压力测试。本文试图了解在全球金融危机下,来考察这两种模型对保险监督的适用性。     

基于组合模型对高速公路路面使用性能的预测研究

本文系统地总结了国内外高速公路路面使用性能预测模型的研究现状,本着利用组合预测方法提高预测精度和降低预测风险的思想,提出了衰变模型和马尔可夫概率模型的组合模型,以广东省北环高速公路为实例证明该组合模型的可应用性。     

未来十年全球风险地图

近期,劳合社发布的《劳合社城市风险指数2015-2025》（lloyds.com/cityriskindex）首次对全球301座主要城市在十年中因受到18种人为和自然威胁而导致的经济产出风险（GDP@Risk）进行了分析。基于剑桥大学佳奇商学院剑桥风险研究中心的原创性研究,该指数发现,301座城市的预计GDP中共有4.6万亿美元受到各种风险的威胁——而2015年至2025年的预计GDP总和为373万亿美元。     

Assessing probabilities of unique events： Calibrating qualitative likelihood judgments into a probability distribution

Multifaceted events in an organizational environment usually need to be assigned probabilities as a prerequisite to analytical decision-making. If the decision situation is unique, a lack of relevant historical frequency data may preclude use of traditional probability models such as the normal, binomial etc. In this case, an individual decision maker （DM） or an informed group of persons can input into a procedure as outlined here to determine a probability distribution that leads to the expected values of alternative actions or fair values of securities. The individual or group member must decide qualitatively on the extent to which one event is ＂more likely＂ than another where both events are ranked adjacent （i.e., closest to each other） in terms of likelihood. Even though the individual or group members may lack experience in orthodox probability assessment, these pairwise ＂more likely＂ judgments on the relative likelihood of events are not overly demanding for persons familiar with the possible outcomes in the situation under analysis.     

构建概率模型解题例析

建立一些概率模型，推出了一个重要的无穷数列并对求这类无穷数列的和、递推数列的极限及某些具有特殊意义的组合恒等式的证明提供了一些简便易行，行之有效方法。