Does the Welfare State Destroy the Family? Evidence from OECD Member Countries

We study the effect of the size of the welfare state on demographic trends in OECD member countries. Exploiting exogenous variation in public social spending, due to varying degrees of political fractionalization (i.e., the number of relevant parties involved in the legislative process), we show that an expansion in the welfare state increases fertility, marriage, and divorce rates with a quantitatively stronger effect on the marriage rate. We conclude that the welfare state supports family formation in the aggregate. Further, we find that the welfare state decouples marriage and fertility, and therefore alters the organization of the average family.     

Comparative persistence and adherence with newer anti-hyperglycemic agents to treat patients with type 2 diabetes in the United States

Objectives: Non-adherence and non-persistence to anti-hyperglycemic agents are associated with worse clinical and economic outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes. This study evaluated treatment persistence and adherence across newer anti-hyperglycemic agents (canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, sitagliptin, saxagliptin, linagliptin, liraglutide, or exenatide).

Methods: This retrospective cohort study of Truven Health Analytics Marketscan databases included adult patients with type 2 diabetes whose first pharmacy claim for a newer anti-hyperglycemic agent was between February 1, 2014 and July 31, 2014. Treatment persistence and adherence were assessed for 12 months after the first claim (post-index). Persistence was defined as no gap ≥90 days between the end of one pharmacy claim and the start of the next pharmacy claim post-index. Adherence used two definitions: proportion of days covered (PDC) and medication possession ratio (MPR). Multivariable analyses of non-persistence (hazard ratios) and adherence (odds ratios) were adjusted for baseline demographics, drug cost, clinical characteristics, and other anti-hyperglycemic agents.

Results: A total of 11,961 patients met all study selection criteria. Persistence rates at 12 months were significantly greater (p?p?=?0.83; PDC?=?0.79) and canagliflozin 300?mg (MPR?=?0.92; PDC?=?0.81) were greater than for the other index anti-hyperglycemic agents (MPR?=?0.33–0.75; PDC?=?0.33–0.72). Consistent results for treatment persistence and adherence were observed in multivariable analyses that were adjusted baseline characteristics.

Conclusions: Canagliflozin was associated with better treatment persistence and treatment adherence compared with other anti-hyperglycemic agents in real-world settings.     

Material Offshoring: Alternate Measures

Industry measures of offshoring of material inputs are often generated using the proportionality assumption applied to aggregate import data—that the import share of each commodity used in the production process for a particular industry is similar to the import share of a commodity for the total economy. This note compares estimates of offshoring for the Canadian manufacturing sector derived using this assumption to four alternatives: two measures that use direct measures of firm‐based imports, and two hybrid measures that use both input and import information. These indirect measures are compared to survey estimates that directly assess import intensity in the production process in an effort to evaluate which indirect method yields more reasonable offshoring measures.     

Exporting, linkages and productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment

Abstract.  In this paper we analyse productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment using firm-level panel data for U.K. manufacturing industries from 1992 to 1999. We investigate spillovers through horizontal, backward, and forward linkages; distinguish spillovers from export-oriented vs domestic-market-oriented FDI; and allow for differing effects, depending on domestic firms' export activities. The results suggest that the mechanisms through which spillovers affect domestic firms are very complex and that there are substantial differences in spillover benefits for domestic exporters and non-exporters, and from different types of inward investment.     

Oil price and Gulf Corporation Council stock indices: New evidence from time-varying copula models

Using a time-varying GJR copula approach, we determine the conditional dependence of the GCC stock indices on oil price between 2007 and 2016. We show how to improve the forecasting accuracy of the co-movement of energy and stock prices in an equally weighted portfolio. Contrary to prior findings, we demonstrate that due to the different co-movements across the GCC stock indices, portfolios of oil assets and several GCC stocks are less likely to be affected by systemic risk. The different co-movements across several stock indices over time provide different entry and exit points for stock investors. This approach is in line with the ‘buy low/sell high’ adage.     

基于深度学习模型的种植结构复杂区农作物精细分类研究

目的 卫星遥感技术具有覆盖范围广、探测周期短、调查成本低等优势而广泛应用于大区域农作物分类。然而在种植结构复杂区（如城乡结合部）,因其地块破碎、同期生长的作物种类多且分布分散,利用传统的统计分类或机器学习方法进行农作物分类时仍存在精度不高的问题。为提高种植结构复杂区农作物分类精度。方法 文章选取河北省廊坊市广阳区为研究区,以GF-1 PMS全色多光谱融合影像为数据源,采用U-Net、PSPNet及DeepLabv3+,3种深度学习模型进行农作物分类研究。分析模型参数对农作物分类精度的影响,评价3种深度学习模型的农作物分类精度,优选农作物精细分类方法。结果 （1）学习率与3种深度学习模型的分类精度呈正相关关系,较大的学习率（0.01,0.001）下,3种模型收敛速度快,分类精度高。批样本量与模型分类稳定性相关,批样本量设为100时,3种模型的分类稳定性最好。（2）相比PSPNet、DeepLabv3+模型,U-Net模型分类效果最好,总体分类精度为89.32%。（3）GF-1 PMS影像结合U-Net模型可有效提升种植结构复杂区农作物分类精度,大宗作物春玉米、夏玉米的分类精度在80%以上,花生、红薯、蔬菜小宗作物分类精度在60%以上。结论 该研究可为准确获取种植结构复杂区的农作物类型、面积及空间分布信息提供参考依据。     

News shocks or parametric indeterminacy? An observational equivalence result in linear rational expectations models

This paper studies identification in linear rational expectations models with news shocks. We show that news-driven models and indeterminate equilibrium economies with i.i.d. fundamentals are observationally equivalent. This finding calls for carefully designing empirical investigations of news shocks in estimated DSGE models.     

International transmission of business cycles: Evidence from dynamic correlations

We exploit dynamic correlations to estimate determinants of output comovement between OECD countries. Trade intensity, financial integration, and specialization patterns have significantly different effects on comovements at different frequencies. This sheds more light on previous results based on statistical filters.     

On some criteria for the formulation and testing of economic growth models

This paper presents a methodology for the formulation and testing of economic growth models. The model selected includes two production sectors with physical and human capital accumulation. These capital stocks are associated with spillover effects in the production of the physical good and in the accumulation of both factors.     

Tax competition and tax structure in open federal economies: Evidence from OECD countries with implications for the European Union

Tax competition arguments suggest that governments that operate in an open economy (such as local governments) should not and will not rely on non-benefit taxes, such as the income tax. Yet we observe reliance on income taxes by local governments in many countries, and such reliance changes over time. Evidence from a panel data set of 13 OECD countries over the period 1975-1984 suggests that competition between levels of government (resulting in a vertical fiscal externality) and between governments at the same level (resulting in a horizontal fiscal externality) provide some economic rationale for these changes. Moreover, the evidence indicates that the vertical and horizontal fiscal externalities interact. These results have some interesting implications for fiscal policy in the European Union, particularly as the EU continues to evolve. One implication for the EU is that enlargement that increases tax base disparities within the EU (and is not accompanied by an EU-level income tax) will tend to lower national income tax rates, although this must be qualified because it also depends on the mobility of the population. A second implication is that fiscal expansion of the EU to include an EU-level income tax may tend to lower the reliance of national governments on income taxes through the vertical externality, but may also tend to equalize tax bases across countries, and so increase reliance on national income taxes through the horizontal externality.