信息问题、银行结构与信贷市场"沉默螺旋"配置效应

从市场交易型贷款和关系型贷款两种贷款技术出发,结合中国寡头银行结构,分析了中国信贷市场的“沉默螺旋”配置效应,并阐明了其动力机制。基于“沉默螺旋”这一全新视角,进一步探讨了货币政策传导机制和银行效率评判问题,并得出相关结论。     

商业银行偿付能力风险、流动性风险与银行体系风险

宏观审慎监管需要微观基础.研究商业银行偿付能力风险与流动性风险和银行体系风险的关系,有助于监管当局制定合适的监管工具,有效管理银行业的系统性风险.中国未曾爆发过真正意义的银行业危机,因而研究影响银行业系统性风险的因素成为难题.在借鉴风险二维定义属性基础上,本文对商业银行偿付能力风险和流动性风险如何影响银行业稳定进行了实证分析.分析结果表明,当商业银行偿付能力上升时,银行风险承担会上升,进而增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行流动性风险的上升也会增加银行倒闭的预期损失;商业银行偿付能力提高时,流动性风险会降低;商业银行流动性风险上升时,偿付能力风险也上升.     

风险厌恶测定与我国银行治理效率的实证研究

基于FDIC对商业银行贷款损失所设定的概率分布,本文利用VaR方法对商业银行风险厌恶程度进行了测定,并利用我国上市银行2004～2008年间的财务数据对商业银行的风险厌恶程度进行了实证分析,结果表明商业银行的风险控制可以反映其风险厌恶程度,风险厌恶程度在风险控制中得到充分体现.银行的风险厌恶程度越高,净资产回报率越高.     

The Prospects for European Bank Concentration in Light of Recent US Experience

ABSTRACT

Recent United States experience is used to draw implications for European bank concentration. The basic hypothesis is that US concentration is driven by the need to internalise risk reduction activities and that this is done by creating an internal market comprising multiple financial activities. A similar process seems to be at work in Europe after the Single Market Act and the various European commission directives have made it possible for banks to operate across national boundaries. That there has been little EU cross-border merger activity suggests additional impediments. One is the absence of a single EU regulatory agency that limits the benefits of expanding activity across borders.

RESUMEN. La reciente experiencia estadounidense se está utilizando para determinar implicancias para la concentración de los bancos europeos. La hipótesis básica es que la concentración de los EE.UU. está siendo impulsada por la necesidad de internalizar las actividades de riesgo y que esto se logra creando un mercado interno compuesto por múltiples actividades financieras. Un proceso similar parece haberse puesto en marcha en Europa después de la Ley del Mercado Único y las diversas disposiciones emitidas por las comisiones europeas han permitido a la banca operar en transacciones transfronterizas. El hecho que hasta el momento haya habido pocas operaciones de fusión a través de las fronteras de la Unión Europea sugiere la existencia de impedimentos adicionales. Uno es la ausencia de una agencia única de la Unión Europea que limite los beneficios de expandir estas actividades a través de las fronteras.

RESUMO. A recente experiência americana é usada para verificar as implicaç[otilde]es da concentração bancária européia. A hipótese fundamental é de que a concentração americana tem sido conduzida pela necessidade de internalizar as atividades de redução de risco e que isto é feito através da criação de um mercado interno que envolve múltiplas atividades financeiras. Um processo semelhante parece estar acontecendo na Europa, a partir da Lei do Mercado Único, e as diversas comiss[otilde]es diretivas européias, que possibilitaram aos bancos operar através das fronteiras nacionais. O fato de ter havido poucas fus[otilde]es internacionais sugere a existência de outros impedimentos. Um deles é a ausência de uma única agência reguladora da União Européia, que tem limitado os benefícios da atividade de expansão entre as fronteiras dos países.     

如何看待银行业利润大幅增长问题

今年以来,银行业利润大幅增长问题引起了社会各界高度关注。本文的分析表明,银行业利润的大幅增长主要归因于实体经济平稳较快增长、现行金融保护制度、银行中间业务快速发展、银行业改革红利和市场环境变迁等,是各种内外部、主客观因素共同作用的结果。银行业良好的经营绩效对于银行、金融体系乃至国民经济的健康平稳发展具有重要意义。受制于多方面因素,当前银行业的高盈利不具备可持续性,可采取有关改革措施保持银行业利润合理、平稳增长。     

The Provision of Liquidity in the Swedish Note Banking System, 1878–1901

Abstract

The working of the “asset currency” provided by the Swedish note banking system in 1878–1901 is described. Natural and institutional conditions caused the demand for currency to peak in March and September, with troughs in July and January. The paper investigates how the Enskilda banks provided liquidity to solve the problem. This is done by describing how the volume of notes varied over the year, and how other balance sheet items co-moved with them. Strong seasonal co-variation is found particularly between lending and foreign payments media, varying like communicating vessels over the sailing season in May–October (when the sea was ice free and shipments were made).     

A positive analysis of deposit insurance provision: Regulatory competition among European Union countries

We consider the provision of deposit insurance as the outcome of a non-cooperative policy game between nations. Nations compete for deposits in order to protect their banking systems from the destabilizing impact of potential capital flight. Policies are chosen to attract depositors who optimally respond to the expected return to deposits, which depends on deposit insurance levels, systemic risk and transaction costs. We identify both defensive and beggar-thy-neighbour policies. The model sheds light on the European banking crisis of 2008 in which individual nations ratcheted up their deposit insurance levels.     

中国银行业多元化业务收入对其利润影响的实证分析

已有的实证研究表明,我国商业银行业务多元化在一定程度上能提高其盈利能力。本文在已有研究的基础上,实证研究了我国商业银行各项业务收入对其利润的影响。研究结果表明,虽然各项业务收入有助于提高银行总利润,但是利息收入、其它营业收入和投资收益却对银行净利润存在明显的负向影响,但当考虑其与是否股份制银行的虚拟变量的交互影响后,发现业务收入对股份制银行的净利润有显著的正向影响。同时,金融企业往来收入、汇兑收益、营业外收入对银行净利润都具有正向影响,其中又以营业收入的边际影响最显著。     

现代银行监管理论的发展及对我国银行监管的启示

放松监管、银行危机与再监管是近30年来世界银行业的主旋律。随着经济和金融的深入发展,银行监管理论和银行监管实践都产生深刻的变化。本文从银行监管的经济学思想回溯入手,按照理论发展的时间顺序对银行监管的经济学思想进行梳理,并在信息不对称和博弈论框架下分析现代银行监管理论的发展,阐述现代银行监管理论的微观基础。最后,文章就现代银行监管理论对我国银行监管的启示提出几点看法。     

Deposit interest rates, asset risk and bank failure in Croatia

Financial deregulation, while beneficial in the long-term, seems to be linked to instability. Intense competition for deposits appears to be an ingredient in instability. We examine the aftermath of deregulation in Croatia, which included rapid growth of both deposits and deposit interest rates, followed by numerous bank failures.

Using panel regression techniques, we find evidence of “market-stealing” via high deposit interest rates. We connect high deposit interest rates to bank failure using logit models. High deposit interest rates were a reliable signal of risk-taking. When supervisory capabilities and powers are weak, deposit interest rate regulation may be worth considering.