What is an Investment Project's Implied Rate of Return?

How to measure a project's implied rate of return has long been an unresolved problem, except for some special cases. This paper derives return on present cost (ROPC) as the correct measure of an investment project's implied rate of return. The IRR is a biased measure except for projects classified as simple projects, and this bias is likely to be substantial in many real‐world applications. Thus while net present values should be used to determine whether to accept/reject projects, I recommend that analysts use ROPC in place of the IRR as a measure of a project's true rate of return.     

Cost-effectiveness of DTG + ABC/3TC versus EFV/TDF/FTC for first-line treatment of HIV-1 in the United States

Abstract

Objective:

Data from the SINGLE trial demonstrated that 88% of treatment-naïve HIV-1 patients treated with dolutegravir and abacavir/lamivudine (DTG?+?ABC/3TC) achieved viral suppression at 48 weeks compared with 81% of patients treated with efavirenz/tenofovir disoproxil fumarate/emtricitabine (EFV/TDF/FTC). It is unclear how this difference in short-term efficacy impacts long-term cost-effectiveness of these regimens. This study sought to evaluate long-term cost-effectiveness of DTG?+?ABC/3TC vs EFV/TDF/FTC from a US payer perspective.     

Shortfall minimization and the Naive (1/N) portfolio: an out-of-sample comparison

Naive portfolio selection, wherein an investor allocates an equal portion of their wealth to the field of candidate assets, is a simple ad-hoc way to create a portfolio. Naive portfolio selection contrasts to the many sophisticated portfolio selection rules that are optimal with respect to a specific portfolio allocation objective and which often perform well in sample. However, some recent research finds that many of these ‘optimal’ portfolio allocation mechanisms perform no better than naive diversification in out-of-sample data. This paper extends this line of inquiry by comparing the out-of-sample performance of naive portfolio selection to several recently developed shortfall-minimizing portfolio selection methods. The results corroborate the prior findings that optimal portfolio methods struggle to beat the naive portfolio in out-of-sample environments.     

公铁平交道口技术装备安全评价模型研究

针对我国公铁平交道口安全现状,研究开发了一种基于故障树和事件树分析技术,结合Bow-Tie模型的平交道口技术评价及管理模型。根据模型特点及应用要求,提出采用Bow-Tie拓展模型对平交道口技术装备进行安全评价的方法,并收集某公铁平交道口一定时间段的事故数据,针对该类平交道口的技术装备进行模拟评估,提出相应的预防及减缓措施,取得了较好效果。     

P2P网络借贷研究综述

近年来由于民间融资的自身优势,各类小额贷款异军突起,而依托于互联网的P2P借贷一经开发,迅速传到各国。文章基于国内外关于P2P网络借贷的理论与实证研究,对国内外的研究发展情况进行分析和梳理,报告了P2P网络借贷行业的生存现状和发展情况以及各方对此的研究成果。文章通过对P2P网络借贷各方面研究文献的研读,将国内外文献的研究方法、研究内容和结论进行归纳总结。反映出国外的研究较为成熟、体系较为完整全面,而我国的P2P网络借贷起步较晚,所以在这方面的研究仍停滞在比较基础的阶段,多集中于对P2P网贷平台的运营比较、制度建设、风险研究等等方面的研究。但是实证方面的文献研究,仅寥寥几篇。但是随着P2P网络借贷的日益发展壮大,相关的研究也应该跟上发展的脚步。我们不仅应该在已有研究的基础上进行必要的扩展和深入,更应该在研究方法和研究视角上有进一步的提高和扩大。文章对P2P平台和信用体系的完善起到积极有效的作用。     

矿用钻孔施工防着火及瓦斯超限安全保护装置设计与应用

在施工瓦斯抽采钻孔时,为防止因钻孔施工着火引起一氧化碳浓度过高和瓦斯超限,设计并实践应用了矿用钻孔施工防着火及瓦斯超限安全保护装置,该装置通过传感器监测一氧化碳和瓦斯数据,当出现一氧化碳超限信号时,通过电子阀实现高压风和高压水的自动转换控制。     

食品质量安全的现状及对策

本文对现阶段国内食品安全形势以及相关的影响因素进行了分析和研究,并提出了在构建食品安全管理体系方面的想法与建议,以供借鉴。     

定量结构活性预测技术在化学品安全管理中的应用

本文概述了定量结构活性预测（QSAR）技术的原理、法规要求、常用预测方法、发展现状、验证原则,对QSAR在化学品安全管理中的应用进行了展望。     

Modeling economic and agro-environmental dynamics of potato production systems

Crop rotation and other input management practices are of particular interest for their potential impacts on economic and agro-environmental components of potato production. Although crop yield and experimental impacts of rotations of grains, oilseed and legume crops have been published for several experimental studies in Canada there are few models related to the economic and environmental dynamics of potato production. We describe a dynamic model which integrates environmental and economic processes in potato production. The potato rotation model consists of interconnected modules of irrigation and precipitation, soil characteristics, soil erosion, soil water, phosphorus, nitrogen, soil organic matter, farming operations, crop yield and the related calculation of economic return. While not all aspects of crop production have been interlinked, including nitrogen carry-over, this model is the first step in the analysis of experimental data for irrigated potato rotations conducted in southern Manitoba.