Value of land as a pollutant sink for international waters

The purpose of this paper is to analyse and compare the values of a marginal change in the area of land as a pollutant sink under different decision-making contexts and objectives: international coordination versus national policies for pollutant reduction, and maximization of net benefits versus minimization of costs for pollutant reductions. The analytical results show that a coordinated policy between countries generates a higher value of a marginal change in the supply of land as a pollutant sink than an uncoordinated policy. It is also shown that the value is lower (higher) under the decision objective of maximizing net benefits when the efficient pollutant load is higher (lower) than the load target under the cost effectiveness approach. An application to the Baltic Sea drainage basin land as a nitrogen sink for the management of eutrophication reveals that the differences between values under different policy contexts and objectives can be quite large in magnitude.     

Asset pricing with investor sentiment: On the use of investor group behavior to forecast ASEAN markets

A study of investor behavior, using four investor groups (local, foreign, institutional, and dealer's accounts) on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET). The daily net purchases of each group are used as leading indicators for sentiment. The sentiments are examined with relation to each other and market returns. Eight proven macroeconomic factors with known cross-sectional relationships and known to forecast with returns are examined as a benchmark for the newly proposed sentiment factor model. Retesting the factors allows for an apples to apples comparison with the proposed sentiment factors. Using a VAR framework this research finds that dealers predominantly sell to institutional accounts, creating a negative correlation between the two groups, in addition to strong institutional herding which is all indicative of potential agency problems on the exchange. Also find that local individual accounts practice negative feedback trading and the other groups practice positive feedback trading. Of the four groups, the only group that influences the SET is the local individual group of investors. The foreign investor is found to be the least significant group on market returns, provide market liquidity to locals, and be the least responsive to daily market changes-following the prudent man rule. Lastly, propose a simple model, using investor behavior to accurately predict the market's direction for the following day 76 percent of the time with market timing ability (66 percent in Malaysia). This can be useful for buying and shorting the market.     

A Bayesian Net Benefit Approach to Cost‐effectiveness Analysis in Health Technology Assessment

The economic literature on cost‐effectiveness analysis in the context of decisions by health technology assessment agencies assumes as the quantity of interest a linear combination of the mean of the sampling distribution of the effectiveness and the cost. We argue that this is not always reasonable. Our reasons for this assertion are that (i) treatments are compared on the basis of mean values, and for some useful models the mean of the distribution of the cost, which is conditional on the available data, does not exist, and (ii) even for models for which the mean does exist, it might not constitute an accurate reflection of the distribution. This paper presents a general Bayesian cost‐effectiveness analysis of a single treatment, where the quantity of interest is the distribution, conditional on the data, of the net benefit. This approach permits a natural extension to several treatments, which enables us to make a statistical comparison. Illustrations with treatment comparisons for real and simulated data are given.     

上市公司过度投资问题初探

与投资不足等其他非效率投资行为相比,投资过度产生的不利后果更为严重,本文在界定过度投资的基础上,分析了上市公司过度投资产生的原因,并从防范经理人获取私利、克服个人有限理性、合理引导投资者形成理性投资预期等三个方面提出了抑制过度投资的相应对策。     

建立西南石油资源国际运输通道的可行性分析——基于国家经济安全的视角

国际石油史上的第四次“危机”正在逼近，由于国内的能源价格正逐步和国际接轨，国际油价的高企。直接对中国经济安全形成巨大压力。充分利用“两个市场”、“两种资源”，打通并建立大西南石油资源国际运输通道是维护中国国家经济安全的必要举措。     

大学生思想教育网络化初探

随着信息技术的迅速发展,互联网作为一种新的信息传媒工具,越来越成为当代大学生获取知识和各种信息的重要渠道,同时高等学校学生思想政治工作也面临着严峻的挑战。思想政治工作者可通过网络对大学生进行思想政治教育,并从中探索出一条切实可行的大学生思想教育网络化之路。     

德国高速铁路安全立法的经验及启示

德国高速铁路安全立法较早,成为保障德国高速铁路安全的重要支柱。从救援防范、安全管理分工合作、安全管理标准规范等角度出发,阐述德国高速铁路安全立法;从建立严格规范的救援和事故调查机制、加强多主体共同合作以及建立安全管理标准体系等方面,分析德国高速铁路安全立法的主要特色。在此基础上,提出德国高速铁路安全立法启示,即:构建安全救援和事故处理法律制度,构建多方合作法律制度机制及构建高速铁路安全管理标准规范制度,为我国高速铁路安全管理法治化提供经验借鉴。     

基于AHP-TOPSIS的城市轨道交通应急演练评估研究

为提升演练质量与效果,阐述城市轨道交通应急演练现状,在构建大客流综合处置演练评估指标体系的基础上,将层次分析法AHP与TOPSIS法两者有机结合,建立城市轨道交通应急演练评估模型,以城市轨道交通大客流综合处置演练为例,从协调指挥、信息传递、关键流程控制、运营恢复4个方面综合考虑影响演练效果的评估因素。通过层次分析法得出各指标权重值,采用TOPSIS法进行计算排序,针对参演各班组的演练情况进行排序,实现对城市轨道交通大客流演练的评估。经过实例验证表明,AHP-TOPSIS模型具有良好的适应性与合理性,对各种类型的应急演练评估有很好的应用价值。     

差异化变革型领导对员工创新绩效的跨层次影响

基于社会信息加工理论,探讨差异化变革型领导对员工创新绩效的跨层次影响,尤其是员工心理安全感的中介作用及团队差错管理氛围的调节作用。采用配对式调查问卷,以74名领导和264名下属为样本,建立层级线性模型。结果发现:①团队一致性变革型领导对员工创新绩效具有显著正向影响,个体差异性变革型领导对员工创新绩效具有显著负向影响;②心理安全感分别在团队一致性变革型领导、个体差异性变革型领导与创新绩效间起部分中介作用;③团队差错管理氛围不仅正向调节团队一致性变革型领导与心理安全感间的正向关系,还正向调节个体差异性变革型领导与心理安全感间的负向关系。     

关于加强我国自助旅游安全管理的思考

自助旅游是现代旅游业的一种新趋势,受到广大旅游爱好者的喜爱,但是也存在着一些安全隐患。笔者列举了其中的一些问题,分析了它们的原因,并提出了解决办法。