中国贸易条件变动趋势分析——基于1993-2017年月度数据的研究

基于1993-2017年月度数据研究发现:中国三大贸易条件指数(2010=100)中价格贸易条件上下波动明显,标准差为6.0;收入贸易条件长期稳步上升,近三年相对于最高点下降了15%~20%;要素贸易条件一直呈上升趋势,标准差为66.2.人民币汇率一次性大幅度变动时,中国价格贸易条件有显著变动.人民币显著升值时,价格贸易条件马上明显改善,但维持时间不长,随后又发生逆转.人民币一次性大幅度贬值导致价格贸易条件长期恶化有一定的时滞.国外发生经济或金融危机而中国宏观经济较稳定发展期间,中国价格贸易条件改善.为此,我国应积极推动人民币汇率向均衡汇率靠拢,针对性地采取限产计划,以提升国际分工地位,从根本上改善贸易条件和增加经济福利.     

The rise of defensive engineering: how personal liability considerations impact decision-making

Abstract

Based on a survey of Australian engineers (n = 275) this paper examines the impact of personal liability considerations on engineering decision-making. Almost all respondents who make high-stakes decisions saw questions of liability as having both positive (90%) and negative (87%) impacts. Our analysis shows that awareness of personal liability acts to focus the attention of many engineers on the moral dimension of their work. However, it also encourages more expensive decision-making, inhibition of innovation and professional paralysis. We argue that while personal legal liability is a legitimate way to focus engineers’ attention on the potential impact of their work, a problem arises when decision-makers are held responsible for disasters over which they had little control. The focus then shifts to ‘defensive engineering’ practices that are aimed at limiting individual liability rather than disaster prevention. Legal processes that are seen to unfairly allocate blame do not encourage practices that support future disaster prevention.     

The future of India's obsolete dams: Time to review their safety and structural integrity

India has built over 5000 large dams till date to boost electric power and to enhance irrigated agriculture. In spite of this big dam building venture, India lacks expertise in decommissioning old dams. As a matter of fact, India has more than 500 large dams that were built 50 years ago, and 100 of them have passed over a century. This article analyses the existing facts on India's outdated dams, their safety matters and recommends future strategies to safeguard the large dams from potential future threats.     

On the (non-)equivalence of IRR and NPV

The internal rate of return (IRR) is generally considered inferior to the net present value (NPV) as a tool for evaluating and ranking projects, despite its inherently useful comparability to the cost of capital and the return of other investment opportunities. We introduce the “selective IRR”, a return criterion which, as a selection of an extended set of possible IRRs, is NPV-consistent. The selective IRR always exists, is unique, easy to compute, and does not suffer from drawbacks that befall the project investment rate, the only other known NPV-consistent return criterion.     

Investigating the effects of job demands and job resources on cabin crew safety behaviors

Cabin crews are crucial to the cabin safety performance of airlines, and may enhance air travel safety and alleviate passenger concerns. Within the limited literature devoted to cabin crew related research, this study aims to examine the causal relationships among “job demands”, “job resources” and cabin crew safety behaviors. Data from a survey of 339 flight attendants working for Taiwanese international airlines were analyzed using structural equation modeling. A variety of fit indices confirmed the overall model fit, and all the paths in the model were statistically significant. Framed in the context of the job demands-resources model, the results reveal negative causality between “job demands” and “cabin crew safety behaviors”, whereas “job resources” are positively related to “upward safety communication”, “in-role” and “extra-role” safety behaviors. The implications of the results for practitioners and future research are discussed.     

食品机械安全卫生设计

本文在对食品机械安全卫生设计问题研究过程中,立足于实际工作情况,从自身工作经验角度出发,分析食品机械安全卫生设计的相关内容,重点从食品加工和机械安全方面出发,探讨其设计的基本内容。     

Risk analysis of the EASA minimum fuel requirements considering the ACARE-defined safety target

We present the results of flight simulator experiments (60 runs) with randomly selected airline pilots under realistic operational conditions and discuss them in light of current fuel regulations and potential fuel starvation. The experiments were conducted to assess flight crew performance in handling complex technical malfunctions including decision-making in fourth-generation jet aircraft. Our analysis shows that the current fuel requirements of the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) are not sufficient to guarantee the safety target of the Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe (ACARE), which is less than one accident in 10 million flights. To comply with this safety target, we recommend increasing the Final Reserve Fuel from 30 min to 45 min for jet aircraft. The minimum dispatched fuel upon landing should be at least 1 h.     

Dose safety motivation mediate the effect of psychological contract of safety on flight attendants' safety performance outcomes?: A social exchange perspective

This study proposes and tests a conceptual model that investigates the mediating effect of safety motivation linking psychological contract of safety (PCS) as manifested by employer obligations of safety and employee obligations of safety to safety violations and safety creative performance (SCP). Data were collected from a sample of flight attendants with two weeks time lag in Iran. Underpinned by social exchange theory, the results of structural equation modeling revealed that safety motivation fully mediates the simultaneous effects of PCS indicators on safety violations and SCP. Specifically, indicators of PCS jointly enhance safety motivation. In turn, safety motivation reduces safety violations, while enhancing SCP. Theoretical and practical implications evoked from the results advance existing knowledge of organizationally social interactions in promoting safety and the motivational mechanism through which PCS predicts employees' safety performance outcomes.     

粮食移动式输送及装仓设备安全性评价方法

本文建立粮食移动式输送及装仓设备安全性评价方法,量化此类设备安全等级,以期对生产厂家在设计、制造上有一定的指导意义,对使用单位的选择上有借鉴意义。     

The information content of funds from operations and net income in real estate investment trusts

This study compares the information content of funds from operations (FFO) and net income (NI) in the real estate investment trust (REIT) industry. We find that models using FFO explain more of the variance in cumulative abnormal returns around earnings announcement dates than models using NI do. We also find that the information content of FFO differs across REITs of different sizes. FFO does not provide useful information to investors in the case of large REITs. Finally, we show that the gain or loss from sales of property is relevant to valuing large REITs.