货币错配与经济金融稳定——一个基于本币升值预期的两期微观经济主体行为模型

国内外的研究普遍显示,货币错配是造成金融和经济危机的主要原因之一。但是,目前研究者所构建的模型主要集中于对净外币负债形态的货币错配风险的研究,无法对我国当前所面临的净外币资产形态的货币错配风险的引致渠道作出解释。基于此,本文构建了两期微观经济主体(银行、企业)行为模型。模型表明本币的大幅升值会恶化微观经济主体的资产负债表,在一定情况下会导致一国的金融或经济危机。在此基础上,本文提出了相应的防范净外币资产形态下货币错配风险的政策建议。     

Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison

The well known fact that investment trusts (closed-end mutual funds in the USA) trade at a discount means that the return to an investor depends not only on the change in net asset value (NAV), but also on changes in the discount over the holding period. Using daily data, this paper models the relationship between UK investment trust prices and NAV's using cointegration methodology then shows that the forecasts based on the, error correction mechanism (ECM) compare poorly with those from vector autoregressions. And then incorporates a number of modifications to the ECM in an attempt to improve the forecasts. In particular, modelling volatility persistance and allow for asymmetric resonses in the ECM.     

A statistical review of the risk associated with offshore support vessel/platform encounters in UK waters

Safety performance on the UK Continental Shelf is normally considered to be of a high standard, although there are still many incidents and accidents. This paper discusses some of the initial findings in an offshore support vessel safety research project. Following a brief review study of the uses of various types of existing offshore support vessels, a comprehensive statistical failure data analysis of the vessels is carried out mainly based on a Ship/Platform Incident Database drawn from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). The variation of incident frequency with time for different types of offshore oil and gas installations, and for different vessel types has been established. A total of 394 records within the period 1980 to 1997 are investigated in this study. The variation of incident frequency with time and seasons, causation factors, incident with respect to geographical distribution, and sea conditions are discussed. The relationship between vessel types, sizes and operations is analysed; operating circumstances, reported primary failure cause, and impart orientation for different vessel types are also described. The statistical analysis reveals that safety culture in terms of good seamanship by vessel masters is probably responsible for mitigating the magnitude of many of the impacts that do occur and also that there is a need for improvement in safety performance. Issues pertaining to human element, the availability and reliability of data, risk criteria, and safety culture in the context of marine and offshore risk assessment are also discussed.     

基于高科技行业的管理层股权激励与企业价值关系的实证研究

论文运用面板数据的多元统计分析方法对沪深两市高科技行业上市公司的管理层股权激励和企业价值的关系进行实证研究,结果发现：企业价值与管理层股权激励比例、经营活动现金流量／总资产、息税前利润／总资产正相关,与企业规模、资产负债率、国有股比例负相关。并根据研究结果提出了相关建议。     

Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy

This paper applies an option‐pricing model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about output prices and expectations of declining fixed costs on the optimal timing of investment in site‐specific crop management (SSCM). It also analyzes the extent to which the level of spatial variability in soil conditions can mitigate the value of waiting to invest in SSCM and influence the optimal timing of adoption and create a preference for custom hiring rather than owner purchase of equipment. Numerical simulations show that while the net present value (NPV) rule predicts that immediate adoption is profitable under most of the soil conditions considered here, recognition of the option value of investment indicates that it is preferable to delay investment in SSCM for at least 3 years unless average soil quality is high and the variability in soil quality and fertility is high. The use of the option value approach reveals that the value of waiting to invest in SSCM raises the cost‐share subsidy rates required to induce immediate adoption above the levels indicated by the NPV rule.     

我国贸易条件与贸易利益增长关系的研究

长期以来,贸易条件被认为是衡量一国获取贸易利益大小的一项重要指标。文章从价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件及单要素贸易条件的涵义出发,进行了贸易奈件和贸易利益的相关关系分析。分析表明,要全面准确衡量一国的贸易利益必须把价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件和单要素贸易条件这几者结合起来综合考虑,并通过实证研究揭示了我国贸易条件下的静态贸易利益和动态贸易利益现状及制约贸易利益增加的因素。在分析基础上,提出进一步改善我国贸易条件,更多地分享国际贸易利益的措施和建议。     

日本食品安全委员会的运行机制及其对我国的启示

日本食品安全委员会是食品安全法律理念与制度变迁的产物,其运行机制值得刚刚起步的我国食品安全委员会借鉴。日本食品安全委员会的风险评估、风险沟通和应急反应机制有效运行并产生了良好的实际效果,但仍存在缺乏权威性、缺乏事故后的有效应对、专业资源不足和消费者参与较少等不足。我国应当加强食品安全委员会的独立性,引入风险评估机制,建立风险沟通网络,提高危机应对效率,使我国食品安全委员会在食品安全监管中发挥更大的作用。     

中韩自由贸易区的建立对中韩两国净出口与就业影响的实证分析

本文主要运用计量经济学的方法就中韩建立自由贸易区对中韩两国净出口与就业的影响进行了实证分析。实证分析主要分三步:第一步,分析了FTA的建立对两国之间净出口的影响;第二步,分析了净出口的变动分别对中韩两国GDP的影响;第三步,分析了两国GDP与失业率之间的关系,从而得出FTA的建立对两国就业的影响。结论为:若在2009年中韩建立自由贸易区,中国对韩国的贸易逆差会减少64.9196亿美元,韩国对中国的贸易顺差会减少64.9196亿美元;自由贸易区的建立会使中国的GDP增加约0.426%,韩国的GDP减少约0.938%;会使中国的失业率下降约0.069%,韩国的失业率上升约0.157%。     

和谐校园建设中高校园区学生党建工作模式探索

高校园区学生党建是院系学生党建工作的延伸和补充,作为一种全新的学生党建工作模式,目前园区学生党建工作中存在着党员先进性作用发挥不明显、党组织工作职能不太明确、党建工作机制不太完善、工作队伍力量薄弱等问题,直接影响和制约着和谐校园建设的效果,要做好园区党建工作,必须以科学发展观为动力,增强园区内党员先进性意识;以建章立制为前提,明确园区内党组织工作职能;以和谐发展为目标,创新园区党建工作新模式;以队伍建设为契机,推进园区党建工作上水平。     

美国药品安全体系改革的善治化趋势及其启示

近年来，“万络”等药品安全事件促使美国采取一系列措施以完善其药品安全体系，而美国这一系列改革实施的过程充分体现了当今公共管理领域的善治化趋势。本文在介绍和分析美国改革的背景、原因以及相关行动的基础上，结合善治的特征对美国改革经验进行总结，以期为我国药品安全工作的深入提供一定的借鉴。