Forecasting the returns on UK investment trusts: a comparison

The well known fact that investment trusts (closed-end mutual funds in the USA) trade at a discount means that the return to an investor depends not only on the change in net asset value (NAV), but also on changes in the discount over the holding period. Using daily data, this paper models the relationship between UK investment trust prices and NAV's using cointegration methodology then shows that the forecasts based on the, error correction mechanism (ECM) compare poorly with those from vector autoregressions. And then incorporates a number of modifications to the ECM in an attempt to improve the forecasts. In particular, modelling volatility persistance and allow for asymmetric resonses in the ECM.     

基于信号传递博弈模型的我国食品安全问题探析

本文运用信号传递博弈模型的原理来分析我国食品安全问题。认为:我国食品安全形势之所以异常严峻,关键原因是食品监管机构的打击行动属于高成本类型,由此决定了监管机构对食品违法犯罪行为的一次次默许或疏于打击,导致不法食品企业不断修正被打击的后验概率大小,预期利润的净现值不断加大,强烈刺激着不法企业的违法犯罪动机;文章最后分析了我国食品监管机构的打击行动属高成本类型的具体原因,并给出简要的对策建议。     

Patterns of injuries and motor-vehicle traffic accidents in Athens

The extremely high cost of motor-vehicle accidents in public health leads to the necessity of a better injury data collection in the Accident and Emergency Hospital Departments. The ‘Asclepeion’ of Voula Hospital covers the southeastern suburban areas of the greater Athens area (1 000 000 population). The aim of this study is to present information on the pattern of injuries in Athens, in order to understand the magnitude of the problem and develop rational prevention programmes. Specially trained health visitors of the Emergency Department Injury Surveillance System (EDISS) interviewed in person every injured victim who was brought into the Emergency Service of the ‘Asclepeion’ of Voula Hospital. The study was performed during a 3-year period, from 1996 to 1998; 4564 persons were interviewed. Traffic accidents were more frequent on weekdays with a seasonal peak in July and among young Greeks (aged 25 – 34 years). The usual type of injuries seen in vehicle-accident victims were cerebral contusion and concussion, while in motorcycle-accident victims, head contusion and fractures. The most common reasons for the accident were excessive speed, poor condition of road, inattention, abstraction or drowsiness and drug effects. A total of 29.8% of motorcycle drivers and 5.7% of motorcycle passengers wore a helmet and 26.3% of car drivers and 14.1% of car passengers were using seatbelts. The identification of road traffic injury patterns can contribute to the development of injury prevention measures and guide rational preventive interventions that can reduce the incidence of these injuries. The EDISS system established at ‘Asclepeion’ of Voula Emergency Service can provide useful and accurate information about this serious and multidimensional problem of Greek Public Health.     

A statistical review of the risk associated with offshore support vessel/platform encounters in UK waters

Safety performance on the UK Continental Shelf is normally considered to be of a high standard, although there are still many incidents and accidents. This paper discusses some of the initial findings in an offshore support vessel safety research project. Following a brief review study of the uses of various types of existing offshore support vessels, a comprehensive statistical failure data analysis of the vessels is carried out mainly based on a Ship/Platform Incident Database drawn from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). The variation of incident frequency with time for different types of offshore oil and gas installations, and for different vessel types has been established. A total of 394 records within the period 1980 to 1997 are investigated in this study. The variation of incident frequency with time and seasons, causation factors, incident with respect to geographical distribution, and sea conditions are discussed. The relationship between vessel types, sizes and operations is analysed; operating circumstances, reported primary failure cause, and impart orientation for different vessel types are also described. The statistical analysis reveals that safety culture in terms of good seamanship by vessel masters is probably responsible for mitigating the magnitude of many of the impacts that do occur and also that there is a need for improvement in safety performance. Issues pertaining to human element, the availability and reliability of data, risk criteria, and safety culture in the context of marine and offshore risk assessment are also discussed.     

中国涉农供应链管理研究:现状与问题分析

近十二年间,在实践推动及学科交叉互动的背景下,我国涉农供应链(ARSC)研究发展很快,并呈现出一些鲜明的特征。从功能和职能视角看,质量安全、可追溯、冷链、利益与关系管理等方面成为研究的热点。但总体上,这一领域存在着定位模糊、功能性研究薄弱、理论体系散乱、个案挖掘与实证分析不足、连续研究乏力和成果泛化等突出问题。此外,与国外研究相比,一些难点、重点现实问题及其他前沿问题的研究亟需展开。为此,本文对中国涉农供应链管理研究的现状和存在的问题进行了分析。     

非寿险产品EVA盈利分析

近年来，我国保险市场发展迅速，保险产品日趋多样化。由于保险产品成本的事先未知性，寻求一种方法对保险产品进行盈利分析显得越来越重要。基于Feldblum的思想，结合我国保险实务，本文建立了关于我国非寿险保险产品的EVA盈利分析模型。分别在净现值和内部收益率两种会计体系下给出了动态监测保单盈利能力的方法。     

货币错配与经济金融稳定——一个基于本币升值预期的两期微观经济主体行为模型

国内外的研究普遍显示,货币错配是造成金融和经济危机的主要原因之一。但是,目前研究者所构建的模型主要集中于对净外币负债形态的货币错配风险的研究,无法对我国当前所面临的净外币资产形态的货币错配风险的引致渠道作出解释。基于此,本文构建了两期微观经济主体(银行、企业)行为模型。模型表明本币的大幅升值会恶化微观经济主体的资产负债表,在一定情况下会导致一国的金融或经济危机。在此基础上,本文提出了相应的防范净外币资产形态下货币错配风险的政策建议。     

安全工程专业应用型高级技术人才培养模式探索

安全工程专业人才的培养应该是培养能适应现代科学技术飞速发展和社会经济日益变化。本文针对煤炭行业特点,以及新形势下煤炭行业人才培养的需求,结合辽宁石油化工大学顺华能源学院自身实际情况,提出优化学科结构,改革人才培养模式,加强课程体系的建设,加强实践教学环节,从而培养安全专业应用型高级技术人才。     

Safety performance differences between unionized and non-union motor carriers

This paper analyzes the safety performance differences between union and non-union motor carriers. Based primarily on the safety and health provisions of a national agreement between the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and a major unionized motor carrier, a hypothesis is developed that union carriers have a positive safety impact. The hypothesis is tested using safety performance data. Key findings are that union membership has a statistically significant positive impact on both driver and vehicle safety performance. Union membership results in significantly fewer crashes as well.     

构筑我国金融衍生品市场安全网的若干思考

金融衍生品市场在为市场参与者提供有效风险管理工具的同时,又因其强大的杠杆特性也曾给金融衍生品市场带来了灾难性的损失。本文在客观阐述金融衍生品本质特征和主要风险表现的基础上,以中信泰富事件为线索,分析了导致衍生品交易重大亏损的主要原因,从立法、市场、内控和人才等方面提出如何构建我国金融衍生品市场安全网的建议。