成年子女照料老年父母的积极体验研究

通过对14位成年子女照料者的深度访谈,揭示了成年子女照料者在照料老年父母过程中的种种积极体验,例如欣慰和满足、快乐与亲密的感觉,获得思想成熟和个人价值的实现等。这些积极的照料体验不仅强化着成年子女的照料责任感,也帮助他们在一定程度上对抗和克服照料压力。研究发现有助于人们获得关于家庭照料者角色的更为全面的认识,有利于老年人及其家庭照料者社会支持和服务工作的开展。     

Herding behaviour in P2P lending markets

We explore lender behaviour on Renrendai.com, a leading Chinese peer-to-peer (P2P) crowdlending platform. Using a sample of around five million investor-loan-hour observations, and applying a high-dimensional fixed effect estimator, we confirm evidence of herding behaviour: the investors in our sample prefer assets that had attracted strong interest in previous periods. The herding behaviour relates to both the experience level of the investor and the length of time of an investment session on the platform. We also provide evidence of significant herding behaviour in the first hour of experienced investors’ sessions. Our results are robust to the use of alternative specifications.     

中医辨证配合化疗治疗晚期肺癌临床分析

目的探究中医辨证配合化疗对晚期肺癌患者的临床治疗效果。方法将我院2011年1月～2012年1月接诊的53例晚期肺癌患者作为研究对象,随机分为研究组与对照组。对照组患者单纯采用化疗治疗,研究组则在对照组的基础上配合中医辨证治疗。对两组病患的治疗效果进行总结与对比。结果研究组治疗前平均分为58.45分,治疗后为71.35分,对照组治疗前平均分为58.13分,治疗后为49.63分;研究组27例患者半年的生存率为81.48%,一年的生存率为48.15%,对照组26例患者半年生存率为46.15%,一年生存率为15.38%;治疗效果上,研究组总有效率为40.74%,对照组总有效率为15.38%。结论对于晚期肺癌患者而言,采用中医辨证配合西医化疗治疗,除了可以提高患者对化疗的耐受性之外,还能明显提高患者的生存质量,当属一种值得临床推广及应用的治疗方法。     

How the iPhone Widens the U.S. Trade Deficit with China: The Case of the iPhone X

Through an examination of the case of the iPhone X, this paper demonstrates that Chinese companies involved in the production of the iPhone X have moved up along the global value chain. According to the bill of materials, those companies contributed 25.4% of the value added of the iPhone X. About 45% of the value added of the iPhone X originated in Japan, South Korea, and other economies. The iPhone trade remains a significant element of the statistical distortion of the China–US bilateral trade imbalance. In terms of gross value, the import of one iPhone X results in a USD332.75 trade deficit for the US; measured in terms of the value added, however the deficit is a mere USD104. The depreciation of the Chinese yuan (CNY) has very limited power to counterbalance the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration because the foreign value added embedded in Chinese exports is 33.9% on average. Simulation results show that to counterbalance a 25% tariff, the CNY would have to depreciate by 43.3% against the US dollar on average, and to fully compensate for a 25% tariff burden on the iPhone X, a 400% depreciation of the CNY would be necessary. Hedging the risk of the punitive U.S. tariffs by depreciating the CNY is impossible.     

固定汇率体系下的货币政策:对未来中国货币政策的探讨

Using a macro dynamic model that is specified for the current Chinese economy, we investigate the monetary policy in China under the assumption that the capital market was “open” under WTO frame-work while the exchange rate was fixed. Our purpose here is to find whether it is possible for China in this case to keep the effective monetary policy for stabilizing the domestic economy. For this, we suggest some institutional arrangements (or restrictions). Given these institutional restrictions, we find that not only the monetary policy can still be effective but also the fixed exchange regime will strengthen the macroeconomic stability shared by both the domestic economy and the economy of its trade partners. The dynamic analysis of the model further shows that the under-valued RMB is necessary for the target exchange rate to be sustainable. Finally, due to the import pattern of the current Chinese economy, RMB appreciation will not help to resolve the trade deficit problem in the Western economy with respect to China.      

转型经济学的框架变迁与中国范式的全球价值——纪念中国改革开放30周年

中国30年改革开放为全球转型国家提供了有价值的参照体系,也为经济学家探讨转型经济学提供了丰富的视角.文章系统梳理了经济转型理论的历史性变迁,探讨新古典经济学在建立转型理论框架中所遭遇的理论困境和内在逻辑缺失,同时着重剖析了转型经济学中存在的两大基本争议,即渐进式变迁和激进式变迁的争议以及强制性变迁和诱致性变迁的争议.文章最后对中国经济改革进行了理论提炼,揭示了经济转型的中国范式的内涵及其全球意义.     

上市公司综合盈利水平与股票收益

本文基于2000-2017年上市公司的财务及股票交易数据,研究了上市公司综合盈利水平与股票收益之间的关系。我们使用目前资产定价文献中较新的偏最小二乘法和组合预测法,从12个衡量公司盈利能力的指标中提取了一个测度上市公司综合盈利水平的指标。研究结果显示,上市公司综合盈利水平能够显著预测未来股票收益。使用单因子偏最小二乘法、取12个月斜率的平均值构造的综合盈利水平最有效,以其构建的多空对冲投资组合能产生15%的年平均收益,夏普比率达到0.75。与此对应,组合预测法提取的上市公司综合盈利水平的预测能力稍低,但依然显著。在控制了其他公司特征变量后,综合盈利水平对于股票收益的解释能力依然稳健。本文还从经济机制的角度出发,探讨了综合盈利水平对收益的预测来源。我们发现,上市公司综合盈利水平与股票预期回报的正向关系在投资摩擦更低的组中更高,而在错误定价程度更高的组通常更低。这些结果支持了基于投资摩擦的Q理论,而与行为金融的错误定价理论相悖。     

Is China’s Development Finance a Challenge to the International Order?

China is a major funder of developing country infrastructure, lending $40 billion annually through policy banks. Lending does not favor the belt and road above other regions. China’s lending is indifferent to risk, that is, it is uncorrelated with indices of political stability and rule of law. Some major borrowers with poor governance are beginning to have debt sustainability problems, while other borrowers are in good fiscal shape. Chinese banks have been reluctant to follow global environmental norms but seem to be evolving in that direction. Chinese actions seem more a revision of the global system than a challenge to it.     

Health insurance and consumption: Evidence from China’s New Cooperative Medical Scheme

We exploit a quasi-natural experiment arising from the introduction of a health insurance program in rural China to examine how the insurance coverage affects household consumption. Results show that, on average, the health insurance coverage increases nonmedical-related consumption by more than 5%. This insurance effect is observed even in households with no out-of-pocket medical spending. In addition, the insurance effect is stronger in households with worse self-reported health status. These results are consistent with the precautionary savings argument. The insurance effect also varies by household experience with the program. In particular, the effect is significant only in villages where some households have actually obtained reimbursement from the insurance program. The program within these villages stimulates less consumption among new participants than among households that have participated in the program for more than a year.     

克鲁格曼、诺贝尔经济学奖与经济地理学发展

文章对克鲁格曼的经济地理学思想从贸易理论与区位理论相融合,从规模收益递增、要素流动和运输成本揭示空间集聚,从历史、预期和路径依赖揭示区域发展路径,以量化模拟研究区际关系等四方面进行了分析.从研究视角、研究范式和研究方法三方面分析了克鲁格曼创新研究对经济地理学的启迪.从学科社会地位、研究范式和发展方向三方面分析了克鲁格曼获得诺贝尔经济学奖对经济地理学的影响.在此基础上,对中国经济地理学发展提出了一些思考.