Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates

The distribution of shocks to GDP growth rates is found to be exponential rather than normal. Their standard deviation scales with GDP^β where β=−0.15±0.03. These macroeconomic results place restrictions on the microeconomic structure of interactions between agents.     

IPO performance and the size effect: Evidence for the US and Canada

This study provides new evidence on the interaction between firm size and IPO underpricing in the US and Canadian markets. We find a size effect on IPO underpricing in both Canada and the US, which is larger for Canadian firms. Canadian small firms show more underpricing than US small firms (19.32% vs. 13.87%). Large Canadian firms also exhibit more underpricing than their US counterparts over the sample period (12.83% vs. 10.09%). A size effect on performance is not apparent for holding periods beyond six months from the IPO in both countries, consistent with seasoning effects that reduce information asymmetries across firms over longer investment horizons.     

The estimation and determinants of emerging market country risk and the dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model

Country risk assessment is central to the international investment, which recently has increasingly focused on emerging markets (EM). In this paper we proxy for country risk in EM by using time-varying beta. We extend existing literature by applying a dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. After confirming beta is time varying in twenty EM over the period January 1995 to December 2008 we investigate the GARCH (1,1) model and find the t-distribution generates the lowest forecast errors compared to the normal error distribution and a generalised error distribution. In a comparison of previous modelling techniques the results of our modified Diebold-Mariano test statistics suggest that the Kalman Filter model outperforms the GARCH model and the Schwert and Seguin (1990) model. Using a DCC-GARCH model our evidence suggests that considering dynamic betas can improve beta out-of-sample predicting ability and therefore offers potential gains for investors. Finally, we find dynamic betas across EM are strongly associated with each nation's interest rates, US interest rates and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and to a lesser extent the exchange rates. Our results have some similarities to those in previous studies of developed markets in the economic determinants of time-varying beta but differences exist in the results on best model to forecast time-varying beta. These findings have implications for estimating country risk for investment and risk management purposes in EM.     

三重螺旋视域下中国区域创新水平差异性研究

在知识经济兴起与科技浪潮高涨的背景下,创新水平日益成为决定区域获取竞争优势的关键因素。基于三重螺旋理论,构建区域创新水平评价指标体系,对2009-2013年中国内地30个省区市（除西藏外）的面板数据进行因子分析和聚类分析。在此基础上,给出了影响区域创新水平的5大因素,并据此识别划分出中国区域创新发展的4个阶段。     

县域经济“亚核心”发展规律的实证检验

县域经济在我国国民经济中占有重要地位,是国民经济的重要支撑点。尽管不同的县域经济成功案例的发展道路不同,但都遵循县域经济＂亚核心＂的发展规律。即挖掘特色资源,细分市场,专业化生产,强化集聚效应。     

Country Resources,Country Image,and Exports: Country Branding and International Marketing Implications

ABSTRACT

A country's economic, political, and socio-cultural institutions have always been regarded as important determinants of a company's exports and international marketing strategies. With the recent thinking about countries becoming more like a brand, these factors should impact a country's marketing and branding strategies. There has been a call for more research on how countries can use their institutions and resources to enhance their globalization efforts. This study intends to fill this gap by examining the relationships between country institutions and resources, country image, and exports based on institution theory and resource advantage theory. Both archival and primary data for 24 countries over 12 years (1995–2006) were used to assess a random-effects panel data model. The results reveal the significance of economic development and communication infrastructure on exports. In addition, country image was found to indirectly affect exports. The theoretical and practical implications on country branding and international marketing conclude the article.     

三峡库区国家湿地公园建设模式初探--以重庆大昌湖国家湿地公园总体规划为例

巫山县地处三峡库区腹地,受三峡大坝影响显著,在此建设大昌湖国家湿地公园具有重要意义。针对湿地公园鸟类资源丰富、文化资源特色突出、旅游资源已有基础等有利条件,以及消落区面积大、可利用建设用地有限、周边社区协调难度大等不利条件,规划中以水环境保护、消落带治理为特色,以鸟类栖息地保护和社区协调共管为重点。     

我国农村劳动力非农就业的特征和影响因素分析

农村劳动力非农就业问题一直是我国农村经济发展中的一个重要课题。我国农村劳动力过剩问题长期以来制约着农村经济的发展和农民收入的增长。本文主要分析了我国农村劳动力非农就业的主要特征,从宏观和微观的层面具体阐述了影响农村劳动力非农就业的主要影响因素。     

如何推进重庆农村信息化建设

农村信息化建设是社会主义新农村建设的重要内容。重庆作为全国首个城乡统筹信息化试验区,其农村信息化工作相对滞后,其中地域特殊、基础薄弱是制约重庆农村信息化的重要因素。加强基础设施建设、增加资金投入、培养人才是推动重庆农村信息化建设的有效途径。     

FDI对劳动生产率的空间非线性效应研究——基于跨国面板数据的经验证据

本文以2000-2017年全球126个经济体的面板数据为样本,在引入FDI高次方的基础上,应用空间杜宾模型(SDM)实证检验FDI对劳动生产率的空间非线性效应.研究发现:全球范围内各经济体的劳动生产率具有显著的空间依赖性,劳动生产率与FDI之间呈现倒N型的空间非线性关系;FDI对劳动生产率的跨国影响既有正向的技术溢出,...