全球新型金融危机与中国外汇储备管理的战略调整

本文针对美国次贷危机之后国际金融格局变化,提出全球新型金融危机的概念,阐明新型金融危机独有的特征,指出全球新型金融危机对中国外汇储备的影响。本文的分析显示,在全球新型金融危机背景下,中国外汇储备管理的战略应该向人民币国际化这一方向调整,尽管目前时机尚未成熟,但近年来相关方面的发展已经为人民币将来走向国际化奠定了有利的基础。文章对人民币国际化的实现路径进行了讨论。     

我国股票市场与国际市场的联动性研究——对次贷危机时期样本的分析

本文通过构建回归模型,考察了次贷危机前后我国股票市场与世界股票市场联动性的动态变化过程,并且与巴西股票市场进行了比较分析,从而对我国市场与国际市场的互动进行了客观的评价。实证结果表明,总体上我国股票市场与国际市场的联动性不强,并且时而为"即期联动",时而为"滞后联动",联动方式不确定。然而,次贷危机发生后.我国与国际市场的联动性有逐渐增强的趋势,尤其是与英国、香港地区等市场的联动在不断提高。这主要是由于次贷危机使国内外投资者的预期形成机制和投资理念发生了变化。     

Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis

We examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers, focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan. Conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent, we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank-held loans when compared to similar securitized loans: across various specifications and origination vintages, the foreclosure rate of delinquent bank-held loans is 3% to 7% lower in absolute terms (13% to 32% in relative terms). There is a substantial heterogeneity in these effects with large effects among borrowers with better credit quality and small effects among lower quality borrowers. A quasi-experiment that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in securitization status of a delinquent loan confirms these results.     

Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis

The impact of U.S. bank loan announcements on the stock prices of the corporate borrowers has been decreasing during the two last decades with estimated two-day cumulative abnormal returns slipping from almost 200 basis points in the beginning of the 1980s to close to zero by the turn of the Century. We estimate excess returns before and after the onset of the most recent financial crisis. We find that while prior to August 2007 returns were indeed close to zero, afterwards returns jump back up to around 200 basis points. We surmise that in a booming credit market the certification of corporate borrowers by banks started to play a lesser role, while during the crisis the banks’ role was revitalized. Consistent with this interpretation we find that after August 2007 excess returns increase especially for loans with a longer maturity, and for smaller, levered, less profitable or lowly rated firms.     

当前世界经济面临的风险及其影响

2008年全球经济面临的风险是亚洲金融危机以来最严重的一次。全球经济减速，次贷危机继续恶化，油价上涨，美元贬值压力加大，通货膨胀死灰复燃。他们相互交织在一起对各国经济决策构成了极大的挑战。本文对其未来的发展趋势及其对中国经济的影响做出了一种分析。     

Chaos, crises and disasters: a strategic approach to crisis management in the tourism industry

This paper outlines and discusses a strategic and holistic approach to crisis management for the tourism industry. It notes the growing importance of crisis and disaster management for the tourism industry before exploring the definitions and nature of crises and disasters. The paper then proposes a strategic approach to their management from proactive pre-crisis planning through strategic implementation and finally evaluation and feedback. A discussion of crisis and disaster management literature and studies conducted in the tourism field are also introduced. It notes that although crises and disasters cannot be stopped their impacts can be limited by both public and private sector managers. The paper concludes that the understanding and subsequent management of such incidents can be vastly improved through the extension and application of crisis and disaster management theory and concepts from other disciplines, coupled with the development of specific tourism crisis management research and frameworks.     

Ability and willingness to work during COVID-19 pandemic:Perspectives of front-line hotel employees

This research note reports the results of a qualitative study exploring front-line hotel employees’ views about working during the COVID-19 pandemic in order to identify factors that may influence their ability and willingness to report to work. Findings from online focus-groups reveal that front-line hotel employees generally felt a sense of duty to work during the pandemic. However, there were also a number of perceived barriers to working that impacted on this sense of duty. These emerged as barriers to ability and barriers to willingness, but the distinction is not clear-cut. Instead, most barriers seem to form a continuum ranging from negotiable barriers to insuperable barriers. Following this coneptualisation, the key to reducing absenteeism during the pandemic is likely to take remedial action so that barriers to willingness do not become perceived as barriers to ability to work. Practical implications towards this direction are offered.     

Effects of crisis response tone and spokesperson's gender on employer attractiveness

Timely apologies to key publics on social media are becoming an important aspect of crisis recovery but little is known of how the spokesperson’s characteristics and the tone of apology may influence the outcome. Recognising the importance of the need to attract quality workforce, this study examines the impact of social media response to a preventable crisis on organisational attractiveness. Specifically, a 2 (message tone: corporate/formal vs. human/informal) x 2 (spokesperson’s gender: male vs. female) between-subjects factorial design was used to test the effectiveness of an apology. The results suggest a significant moderated mediation effect. We find that account acceptance mediates the relationship between message tone and organisational attractiveness, and this effect is conditional on gender of the spokesperson. The results are relevant to crisis managers and brand managers that seek to attract and retain talents.     

The coevolutionary process of restaurant CSR in the time of mega disruption

This study investigates how US foodservice conglomerates have embarked on corporate social responsibility (CSR) measures to circumvent dire situations during the COVID-19 pandemic. It explores the evolution of CSR practices from restaurant enterprises to rescue and salvage their stakeholders. By analyzing press releases from ten restaurant chains in three different crisis phases (incubation, acceleration, and climax) through corpus linguistics, we identify a CSR progression mechanism that coevolves with the aftermath of the crisis among their stakeholders. This study improvises the CSR- as-process view to highlight the time-variant dynamic nature of CSR development over the course of major disruption.     

Belonging or estrangement—The European Refugee Crisis and its effects on immigrant identity

This study examines the impact of the 2015 European Refugee Crisis on the ethnic identity of resident migrants in Germany. To derive plausibly causal estimates, I exploit the quasi-experimental setting in Germany, by which refugees are allocated to different counties by state authorities without being able to choose their locations themselves. This study finds that higher shares of refugees in a county increased migrants’ attachment to their home countries, while not affecting their perceived belonging to Germany. Further analyses uncover strong heterogeneities with respect to country of origin and suggest that concerns about xenophobia, experiences of discrimination, and the consumption of foreign media contributed to these effects. Lastly, I find that changes in ethnic identity coincide with the political polarization of migrants.