非洲石油经济发展的自主性及其主流影响分析

在中东地区持续动荡的背景下,非洲石油因其独特的优势而使其重要性日益凸显。随着非洲本土石油公司的崛起,非洲石油经济的自主发展势头强劲。石油经济对非洲产油国经济社会发展的积极影响渐成主流。     

印度扩展非洲石油市场份额的策略

经济快速发展导致的能源需求大增以及国内石油资源储产量有限无法满足需要的现实,加剧了印度对海外石油的依赖,石油外交成为新时期印度维护石油供给安全的主要路径选择。随着非洲石油资源储产量的持续上升,在世界石油供给市场上作用的凸现,非洲成为印度新时期石油外交的重点地区之一。探究印度在非洲石油外交的背景、路径、成效及挑战,对客观评价印度对非洲石油外交的态势以及印非关系现状定有裨益。     

基于模糊集的地震图像增强算法研究

随着工业化的发展,石油资源越来越少,勘探开发新的油田成为当务之急。地震勘探是钻探前勘测石油与天然气资源的重要手段,地震图像的清晰程度直接关系着地震解释的结果。随着油气勘探开发对象复杂程度的增加,现有的地震图像增强方法已不能满足正确解释的要求。因此,本文在研究传统的Pal—King基于模糊集的图像增强算法的基础上,针对Pal—King算法的缺点和不足,提出了一种改进算法,并将改进后的算法应用到大庆地区多个区块的地震图像中,取得了较好的增强效果,为地震解释奠定了良好的基础。     

Oil multinationals and governments in post-colonial transitions: Burmah Shell,the Burmah Oil Company and the Indian state 1947–70

Using the post-colonial perspective of hybridity, this article analyses how two British companies, the Burmah Oil Company (BOC) and Burmah Shell (BS) adapted to changes in the socio-economic environment from Indian independence in 1947 until 1970. Post-colonial theory is useful in exploring the continuing imperial influence, the changing relationship between BS, BOC and the Government of India (GOI) and the impact of this on the operations of BOC and BS post-independence. The approach recognises that the relationship between BOC, BS and the GOI was complex with differing levels of co-operation and tension existing between the three parties throughout the period.     

Forecasting crude oil price volatility

We use high-frequency intra-day realized volatility data to evaluate the relative forecasting performances of various models that are used commonly for forecasting the volatility of crude oil daily spot returns at multiple horizons. These models include the RiskMetrics, GARCH, asymmetric GARCH, fractional integrated GARCH and Markov switching GARCH models. We begin by implementing Carrasco, Hu, and Ploberger’s (2014) test for regime switching in the mean and variance of the GARCH(1, 1), and find overwhelming support for regime switching. We then perform a comprehensive out-of-sample forecasting performance evaluation using a battery of tests. We find that, under the MSE and QLIKE loss functions: (i) models with a Student’s t innovation are favored over those with a normal innovation; (ii) RiskMetrics and GARCH(1, 1) have good predictive accuracies at short forecast horizons, whereas EGARCH(1, 1) yields the most accurate forecasts at medium horizons; and (iii) the Markov switching GARCH shows a superior predictive accuracy at long horizons. These results are established by computing the equal predictive ability test of Diebold and Mariano (1995) and West (1996) and the model confidence set of Hansen, Lunde, and Nason (2011) over the entire evaluation sample. In addition, a comparison of the MSPE ratios computed using a rolling window suggests that the Markov switching GARCH model is better at predicting the volatility during periods of turmoil.     

美元影响油价的国际货币职能视角

本文发现美元对油价的影响在2001年前不明显,2001年后明显增强。针对这种现象,我们重新考察了美元对油价的影响机制。认为美元主要通过其在国际上承担的三种职能来影响油价,其中计价与价值储存效应为负,结算效应为正;2001年以前,价值储存效应比较弱,计价与结算两者效应一负一正倾向于相互抵消;而2001以后,价值储存效应明显加大,三种效应两负一正,美元对油价的负面影响显著提高。另外,分析表明中国因素不重要。     

Capital Project Analysis When Cash Flows Evolve as a Continuous Time Branching Process

Optimal capital budgeting criteria now exist for a variety of applications when project cash flows (or present values) evolve in terms of the well-known geometric Brownian motion. However, relatively little is known about the capital budgeting procedures that ought to be implemented when cash flows are generated by stochastic processes other than the geometric Brownian motion. Given this, our purpose here is to develop optimal investment criteria for capital projects with cash flows that evolve in terms of a continuous time branching process. Branching processes are compatible with an empirical phenomenon known as 'volatility smile'. This occurs when there are systematic fluctuations in the implied volatility of a capital project's cash flows as the cash flow grows in magnitude. A number of studies have shown that this phenomenon characterizes the cash flow streams of the capital projects in which firms typically invest. We implement optimal capital budgeting procedures for both the continuous time branching process and the geometric Brownian motion using cost and revenue data for the Stuart oil shale project in central Queensland, Australia. This example shows that significant differences can arise between the optimal investment criteria for cash flows based on a branching process and those based on the geometric Brownian motion. This underscores the need for the geometric Brownian motion broadly to reflect the way a given capital project's cash flows actually evolve if serious errors in valuation and/or capital budgeting decisions are to be avoided.     

日本规避石油价格风险的数字化解读

21世纪初油价攀升并未给日本造成像石油危机时期那样的严重冲击,其主要原因是日本在石油的“量”和“质”等方面有了很大变化。“量”分为“减量”和“增量”两个层面。“减量”是指日本通过调整能源消费结构等措施,相应“弱化”和“缓冲”油价上涨风险;“增量”是指日本通过海外能源投资以及加大石油自主开发等措施部分“对冲”和“转嫁”油价上涨风险。“质”是指日本通过诸措施提升石油利用率,从而相应“舒缓”和“稀释”油价上涨风险。     

完善采油企业质量保证体系

从油藏工程质量、采油工程质量、注水工程质量、设备管理体系及供应方质量保证来探讨提高油田开发质量的办法，以质量保证为基础，开展采油厂质量成本管理，探索建立质量管理体系的新方法，进一步深化向质量要效益的观念。     

不同种类的石油磺酸盐产品的原油沥青质分散性能评价

通过原油沥青分散性试验，考查了不同种类的石油磺酸盐对原油沥青质的分散性能，以便寻求一种评价驱油用表面活性剂应用性能的简便方法。试验结果表明，作为对现有标准评价方法的补充，该试验方法具有简单、实用、数据对比性强等特点，对于石油磺酸盐产品常规性能的例行检验尤为适用。与此同时，三种不同类型的石油磺酸盐产品对原油沥青质分散性的数据对比表明，具有长链稠环或短侧链多环芳烃结构的石油碘化产品，对于地层残余油沥青质的分散性较好，比普通的石油磺酸盐更适宜作为开采地下残余原油的实用型驱油用表面活性剂而使用。