试论提高外语产出能力的方法

本文从一份调查评估报告入手,分析了造成我国外语学习者熟练程度低的主要原因,并从调整教学目标、改革教学内容、加大语言输入、增强输入内容的实用性和加强语言输出等方面探讨了提高外语产出能力和加强熟练度的种种途径。     

网络视角下中国各地区创新过程效率研究:基于我国八大经济区的比较

创新效率问题是学术界关注的焦点.本文从解剖创新过程中的要素流动机理出发,揭示了创新过程的网络化特征,并通过构建网络DEA模型,测算了创新过程整体效率、"创新资源转换"效率与"创新知识转化"效率.以我国八大经济区为研究对象发现:"创新资源转换"与"创新知识转化"效率的主要影响因素不同,前者受到R&D人员区域分布结构影响,后者受到各地区经济发展水平差异的影响;区域创新过程整体效率与"创新知识转化"效率高度相关;区域创新整体效率与"创新知识转化"效率在样本期间稳步上升;整体效率与"创新知识转化"效率出现地区追赶的收敛现象,"创新资源转换"阶段是整体效率发散的隐患.     

金融自由化、非对称调整与新兴市场的金融危机

二战后,新兴市场经济(EMS)也存在广泛的金融抑制。抑制政策可能有短期增长效应;但本文理论模型显示,长期内,竞争机制会耗散金融租金,EMS实际增长率低于有保障和自然的增长率。70年代末期以来,EMS放松了金融规制。因价格调整快于数量调整、金融市场调整快于产品和劳动力市场,金融自由化产生负产出效应。负产出是基本的风险源。来自于金融、实际部门的任何冲击以及制度与政策失灵,都可能引发金融危机。抑制程度越深,负产出效应越大,人均产出越低,自由化过程中发生金融危机的概率也越大。本文使用25个国家1980～2001年的数据,以二元选择模型对上述假说进行实证检验。     

山东科技金融绩效评价——基于主成分分析的DEA研究路径

本文以主成分分析方法进行指标蕴含信息的整合,重新组合一组线性无关的综合性指标,运用数据包络分析方法(DEA)对山东省科技金融投入进行效益评价。研究结果表明,山东省2000—2010年的金融投入重数量、轻质量,重速度、轻基础,呈现出DEA无效状态。基于此,山东省科技金融发展应转变发展方向,走可持续、集约化的发展路径。     

Effect of Money Supply on Real Output and Price in China

Over the past 30 years, China has achieved remarkable long-term economic growth. Using quarterly data, we study the effects of money supply on real output and inflation in China between 1993 and 2008. To this end, we use money supply shocks afler filtering out the expected component of the money supply. Our findings provide evidence supporting the asymmetric effect of positive and negative money supply shocks on real output and inflation in China. That is, real GDP growth in China responds to negative money supply shocks but not positive money supply shocks. In addition, inflation responds to positive money supply shocks but not negative money supply shocks. We conclude that the People＇s Bank of China＇ s policy of steady monetary growth appears to be appropriate. Our study offers important policy implications for China.     

我国液态生物质燃料适度发展规模研究——宏观经济视角的分析

本文通过构建简单的总供给一总需求模型,分析石油数量调控政策、潜在产出水平与均衡价格上涨之间的数理逻辑关系,进而间接得到液态生物质燃料适度规模问题的一般分析框架,为进一步的定量分析打下坚实基础。研究结果表明:为达到潜在产出水平和一定的价格上涨水平,不同的现实条件要求政府实行不同的石油数量调控政策。     

WHICH INDUSTRIES TO BAIL OUT FIRST IN ECONOMIC RECESSION? RANKING US INDUSTRIAL SECTORS BY THE POWER-OF-PULL

There have been intense debates regarding which industrial sectors should be prioritized for receiving bailout in economic recessions. This paper takes a network perspective to rank sectors according to the Power-of-Pull (PoP), i.e. a sector's power to pull the overall economy. An eigenvector method is employed to assess the PoP of sectors in the USA, using input–output data from 1998 to 2010. The results support bailout to the motor vehicle sector, but argue against bailout to public infrastructure, health care and information technologies design and service sectors, and also reveal the continual decline of PoP ranking of computer and electronics manufacturing sector over time. These results confirm some but also show little support to some other economic revival policies of the Obama Administration in the USA.     

Output Gap Estimation and Monetary Policy in China

Using the Bayesian multivariate Beveridge-Nelson decomposition method, this paper estimates China's output gap based on a multivariate dynamic model featuring distinct interactions among real output, inflation, money, and the exchange rate in China during the period 1980-2010. The authors compare the statistical nature and potential forecasting effects of the resulting multivariate gap measure on monetary policy with those of the output gap measures based on univariate models. The empirical results show that only the measure based on the multivariate system significantly predicts monetary policy, which indicates that the output gap estimated by the multivariate system contains more information than the traditional measures for macroeconomic policy adjustments do.     

试论我国商业银行经营效率——基于金融机构演进的视角

现代衡量银行经营效率的主要是前沿效率法,而前沿效率方法有分为非参数和参数分析法。本文采用非参数分析法中的DEA模型,在3类银行中各取一家银行作为代表,以其3年的数据做分析,得出相关结论,并提出相应建议。     

The Output Effect of a Transition to Price Stability When Velocity Is Time Varying

This paper explores the effect of time‐varying velocity on output responses to policies for reducing/stopping inflation. We study a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices in which we introduce time‐varying velocity. Specifically, we endogenize time‐varying velocity into the model developed by Ireland (1997) for analyzing optimal disinflation. The nonlinear solution method reveals that, depending on velocity, the “disinflationary boom” found by Ball (1994) may disappear even under perfect credibility and that early output losses may be much larger than previously thought. Indeed, we find that a gradual disinflation from a low inflation may even be undesirable.