农业投入与农业增长的灰色关联分析

运用灰色系统理论建立关联分析模型,对中国1981年～2008年间农业增长及其影响因素：农作物播种面积、农业劳动力、政府财政支农、农业贷款、农机总动力以及化肥使用量等因素进行了定量分析,认为农业投资、农机总动力和化肥使用量是促进中国农业增长的关键性生产要素,并提出了加快我国农业机械化进程,加强政府财政支农投资力度等提高我国农业生产能力的政策建议。     

The contribution of genetics to milk composition: evidence from Spain

This article focuses on the role that genetic progress may play in improving milk quality. Despite important genetic advances in dairy production, the absence of genetic records in farm management databases has precluded empirical production models from explicitly accounting for differences in genetics across herds. The influence of genetics on milk composition is analyzed by splitting milk production into protein, fat, and other components. The article explores some modeling issues associated with the specification of the effect of genetics in this multi‐output technology framework. In particular, genetic indexes are considered as allocable inputs and the remaining inputs as nonallocable. Our results show that genetics have a significant impact on milk composition. In particular, we find that farmers’ income increases by 6.6% when genetic indexes are augmented by one sample standard deviation.     

Structural change and blurred sectoral boundaries: assessing the extent to which knowledge-intensive business services satisfy manufacturing final demand in Western countries

This paper focuses on the vertical integration of knowledge-intensive business services (KIBS) into manufacturing sectors, using a subsystem approach to input–output analysis. It aims at correctly assessing the process of structural change that has occurred in the four main European countries (France, Germany, Italy and the UK) over time (1995–2005). It does not focus on KIBS sectors per se, but on their function as carriers and sources of knowledge which influences the performance of sectors, value chains and clusters across industries and within countries. The analysis shows that KIBS’ contribution to satisfying the final demand of manufacturing is in general largely underestimated; that KIBS vertical integration into manufacturing has increased over time in all the countries investigated except the UK; and that the extent to which manufacturing sectors outsource to KIBS is significantly affected by their technological intensity.     

Intensidad en empleo a largo plazo del crecimiento del producto sectorial en Túnez

Se examina la capacidad a largo plazo de Túnez de generar empleo. Con datos de panel de 15 sectores económicos de 1983–2010, los autores estiman sus elasticidades producto‐empleo a largo plazo utilizando el estimador de media grupal. Según sus resultados, la política económica debería orientarse a los sectores más intensivos en empleo: servicios y manufacturas exportadoras. Destaca la incapacidad del sector minero de absorber mano de obra, por lo que la inversión en el mismo no será productiva; asimismo, el crecimiento sin empleo a largo plazo de la hotelería y restauración induce a pensar que deberían fomentarse más las actividades paraturísticas que las turísticas.     

SENSITIVITY AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN MRIO MODELLING; SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS WITH REGARD TO THE DUTCH CARBON FOOTPRINT

Environmental multi-regional input–output (MRIO) models require large amounts of data that all have their specific uncertainties. This paper presents a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in order to gain an understanding of the directions in which efforts should be made to reduce these uncertainties. The analyses were carried out for an MRIO model to calculate the Dutch carbon footprint. A sensitivity analysis of the technical coefficients showed that changes in the coefficients in the domestic blocks and in the Dutch import blocks had the largest effects on the calculated footprint. The uncertainty analysis consisting of a Monte Carlo simulation based on probability distributions around the model coefficients showed a relatively low degree of uncertainty in the total Dutch carbon footprint; uncertainties in the carbon emissions allocated to regions, sectors and products were larger. Both analyses showed that, in certain cases, it is justified to apply a partial MRIO analysis.     

UNDERSTANDING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL AND EURO AREA OUTPUT VOLATILITY

This paper addresses two main questions. First, it seeks to establish whether the stylized facts of the ‘great moderation’ that have been documented for the UK and US economies can be found for the Euro area. Second, it explores possible explanations for any changes that have occurred in the volatility of Euro area output fluctuations. In examining why business cycles have moderated, much of the existing literature has tended to concentrate on a few key factors. These include shifts in the structure of the economy, improved monetary policy and a ‘good luck’ factor. This paper, however, follows a relatively new branch of the great moderation literature by focusing on whether international business cycle linkages have changed in a way that may have perpetuated the dampening in Euro area output fluctuations. The results show Euro area output fluctuations to have significantly reduced in variability over the last quarter of a century. The results go on to highlight that, although Euro area cycles differ little from rest of the world cycles, the moderation in Euro area output fluctuations is only marginally due to changes in international business cycle linkages and smaller international and domestic shock variances.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

Facilitating public participation in tourism planning on American Indian reservations: A case study involving the Nominal Group Technique

Tourism is frequently cited as a tool by which American Indians can strengthen the economies of their reservations. However, successful tourism development on such reservations requires effective tourism planning, and effective tourism planning requires public participation in the planning process. The Nominal Group Technique (NGT) has proved to be a useful group process in the tourism field but its application to tourism planning on American Indian reservations has been unexplored. This article helps to fill this knowledge gap by reporting on an NGT workshop conducted on the Lake Traverse Reservation of the Sisseton–Wahpeton Oyate (people, nation) in North and South Dakota, USA. Rich information on tourism development possibilities for three lakefront properties was obtained. Possible success factors are discussed and suggestions for conducting similar future workshops on American Indian reservations are advanced.     

Predictors of Social Equity and Price Acceptability Judgments of User Fees

Abstract

This study investigated decision-making process and outcome variables that predict perceived social equity judgments and price acceptability of user fees for visitors to a national forest. Data were collected in onsite interviews of 228 visitors to a USDA Forest Service campground. Hypothetical conditions involving combinations of six procedural and distributive justice factors related to fee policies were created through 12 written scenarios. Five of the six variables were significant predictors in each of the two analyses. The most prominent predictor of social equity was public input. For price acceptability, the most prominent predictor was fee level.