公司资本投资决策中管理者非理性行为及其原因研究

本文首先基于对实际决策行为的调研和文献研究,归纳出公司资本投资决策中管理者经常出现的12种非理性行为,并按资本投资决策的逻辑步骤将其分成3类;然后,针对每一种行为,根据访谈和行为决策理论,提出"产生这些行为的原因"假设;通过问卷调查和统计分析,发现被检验的38个假设中,有36个假设得到支持;最后,对36个假设的内容进行综合分析,得出每一种非理性行为产生的具体原因,揭示出行为背后的不确定因素、认知偏差和心理因素及其相互作用的思维框架,为改进公司资本投资决策方法与防范管理者非理性行为提供依据.     

Hybrid Delphi: A methodology to facilitate contribution from experts in professional contexts

This work presents a new methodology based on three well-known qualitative techniques (Focus Group, Nominal Group Technique and Delphi method), with a view to harmonising their potentialities and reducing their limitations, through application in real contexts with experts who are professionals in their respective activities.The main contribution of this methodology is its joint consideration of the needs of the investigators and also of experts who act in professional contexts, in order to improve the effectiveness of preceding techniques in achieving the scientific and social objectives of the study.We have tested this methodological approach in three real cases, with experts holding different responsibilities in different companies and public organisations, and the results secured are highly satisfactory, due to both the quantity and quality of the proposals obtained, and the satisfaction exhibited by the experts taking part, with regard to the research methodology.     

企业内部控制局限性研究——基于行为经济学决策理论视角

我国企业内部控制体系建设和有效实施的重要性已是监管部门、理论界和实务界的共识,但是,内部控制就组织目标的实现只能提供合理的保证,其客观存在着局限性.内控局限是有效内部控制的约束条件,这些约束条件包括:环境约束条件、心理约束条件和物质约束条件.因此可以从建设内、外部控制环境、克服不利于内控实施的心理因素、兼顾成本与效益、...     

Conditions under which index models are useful: Reply to bio-index commentaries

This paper summarizes the key conditions under which the index method is valuable for forecasting and describes the procedures one should use when developing index models. The paper also addresses the specific concern of selecting inferior candidates when using the bio-index as a nomination helper. Political decision-makers should not use the bio-index as a stand-alone method but should combine forecasts from a variety of different methods that draw upon different information.     

The effect of environmentally friendly perceptions on festival visitors’ decision-making process using an extended model of goal-directed behavior

This study examined the effect of environmentally friendly perceptions on the behavioral intention of visitors at the Boryeong Mud Festival in South Korea. The results of the on-site survey (N = 400) reveal that three environmentally friendly perceptions formed positive and significant causal relationships with the constructs in the extended model of goal-directed behavior (EMGB). Attitude, subjective norm, and positive anticipated emotion affected desire, which, in turn, influenced the behavioral intention. Three elements, volitional, non-volitional, and emotional aspects, were proven to be crucial in comprehending the perceptions and behaviors of the nature-based festival attendees. The findings of this study will shed light on a better understanding of the decision-making processes of festival visitors when environmental issues are incorporated.     

Bounded Rationality Modeling

This paper deals with bounded rationality as a way to describe behavior and focuses on the question of how to build such boundedly rational models. The first part is a discussion of the reasons why such models are needed and on the situations in which they can be regarded as more particularly useful. The second part examines three strategies of research towards bounded rationality modeling which have emerged in the last ten years and weights them. The concluding remarks offer a first link between the respective typologies of strategies and of situations and calls for additional experimental work by marketing scientists and economists together.     

项目投资方案决策评价标准评述

目前国内外关于项目投资方案决策评价标准的理论存在着一些令人质疑或是不尽完善的地方,本文试图对这些问题进行分析,并提出解决的方案,以完善财务管理中相关的决策评价理论。     

The Effects of Issue Salience on Political Decision-making

Game-theoretic models of political decision-making regard policy outcomes as a combined result of actor preferences and institutions. This paper explores the effects of adding relative issue salience to the analysis. I focus on non-cooperative models of complete and perfect information that are based on the concept of structure-induced equilibrium (Shepsle in Am J Polit Sci 23(1):27–59, 1979). Assuming a progressive agenda-setter and two conservative voters, I show how a change of the relative issue salience for players in a game results in a different equilibrium outcome in a political decision-making body.     

公民有效参与灾后恢复重建:以汶川震后恢复重建为例——兼及托马斯"有效决策模型"的应用

灾后恢复重建工作法治化、民主化是《汶川地震灾后恢复重建条例》的一个亮点,也是中国自然灾害后恢复重建模式彻底转变的标志。公民参与有利于提高灾后恢复重建效率,有利于提升公众的满意度,有利于对政府工作的监督,还有利于灾后社会秩序的恢复与发展。必须立足现实,探索有效的公民参与机制,避免非制度化无序的公民参与所带来的消极影响,建构一个政府与社会良性互动的合作机制,调动一切力量实现灾后恢复重建的目标。     

Trust and reciprocity behavior and behavioral forecasts: Individuals versus group-representatives

Individuals are often given the responsibility of making decisions on behalf of a group or an organization. However, little is known about preferences or behavior in such contexts. In an adapted trust game, I examine whether the perspectives and behavior of group-representatives differ from those of the same individuals in an analogous situation. Group-representatives are given the responsibility of unilaterally and privately making a decision on behalf of a three-person group. Results from both the main and the follow-up studies show that people trust less and reciprocate less as group-representatives, and thus demonstrate that the interindividual-intergroup discontinuity effect not only exists in group behavior but also in individual behavior of group-representatives. Moreover, results show that trusting behavior is driven by reciprocity expectations, while reciprocating behavior is not sensitive to the first mover's behavior, i.e., the level of trust experienced.