价值链视角下应急物资保障管理机制研究

应急物资保障管理是突发公共事件中实施救助处置的重要支撑和保障,直接影响紧急救援的反应速度和应急成效。然而,应急物资保障管理是一体化、多维度的运行系统,某一环节的缺失或效力不足都会影响到整个体系的运行成效。基于价值链理论视角,结合疫情防控中应急物资保障实践,对应急物资保障管理机制进行深入探究。从决策层、管理层和运行层3个维度建立应急物资保障管理价值链模型,深度剖析我国应急物资管理在协同保障过程中各环节的价值作用。研究发现,外部要素主导指挥的决策驱动系统、辅助要素强力支撑的决策调控系统以及基本要素相互调适的决策核心系统,共同构成完整的应急物资保障管理价值链及决策机制。在此基础上给出相应政策建议,以期为提升应急物资援助效力、完善国家应急物资保障体系提供借鉴。     

Government,enterprise and resident: Roles of local agents in regulating and simulating built-up land use and change in a mining city

Various agents are involved in decision-making when built-up land is allocated and regulated, but the roles of these agents must be clarified. To aid this process, the agents in Wu’an (a mining city in China) were classified as government, enterprise and resident, and then their roles were analyzed to establish a decision-making mechanism. The model of physical site selection for enterprises and residents was quantitatively simulated, taking into account the qualitative constraints from government and enterprises. Based on these rules, eight scenarios under economic development-driven scenario (EDdS) series and the environmental conservation-driven scenario (ECdS) series were set up, and vertical and horizontal comparisons were implemented for analysis. Our study showed that the established models could be well fitted for simulation, and that economic development could stimulate the allocation of more built-up land. The most important achievement is that the proposed comparison can effectively distinguish among the roles of various agents, as well as quantify government and enterprise incentives.     

Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations: An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos,Greece

Agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as two of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving human-environment dynamics that have sustained environmental benefits through time. Cultural and behavioral motives are important root influences to such landscape transitions, yet efforts to address landscape degradation are often hampered by a failure to account for the heterogeneous decision-making nature of its agents of change and the inherent complexity of socio-ecological systems. Novel techniques are required to further disentangle responses to multi-level drivers and discuss alternative landscape development trajectories. Agent-based models constructed by means of participatory approaches present increasingly applied tools in this context. This study sought to capture and model the future perspectives emerging from presently occurring farming discourses in the region of Gera (Lesvos, Greece), characterized by persistent abandonment of its traditionally managed olive plantations. We constructed an agent-based model iteratively in collaboration with the local farming community and experts in landscape research. Empirical findings informed the model through the construction of a farmer typology, revealing a heavy reliance of the farming community upon sectorial profitability, prevalent cultural farming motives and emerging landscape initiatives. The model examined the de-coupled role of agricultural profitability and landscapes initiatives in shaping the behavior of land managers, mapping alternative landscape futures over a period of 25 years. Model results illustrate both increased profitability and action by landscape initiatives are required to reverse abandonment trends within the simulated time frame. The hypothesized ability of landscape initiatives to maintain and promote a cultural drive amongst adhering farmers is crucial for securing behavioral transformations towards professionalism. This study confirmed agent-based modelling to be intuitively received by stakeholders who significantly contributed to model structure refinement and the rejection of a status quo scenario.     

First- and second-order subjective expectations in strategic decision-making: Experimental evidence

We study first- and second-order subjective expectations (beliefs) in strategic decision-making. We elicit probabilistically both first- and second-order beliefs and apply the method to a Hide-and-Seek experiment. We study the relationship between choice and beliefs in terms of whether observed choice coincides with the optimal action given elicited beliefs. We study the relationship between first- and second-order beliefs under a coherence criterion. Weak coherence requires that if an event is assigned, according to first-order beliefs, a probability higher/lower/equal to the one assigned to another event, then the same holds according to second-order beliefs. Strong coherence requires the probability assigned according to first- and second-order beliefs to coincide. Evidence of heterogeneity across participants is reported. Verbal comments collected at the end of the experiment shed light on how subjects think and decide in a complex environment that is strategic, dynamic and populated by potentially heterogeneous individuals.     

A field study of entrepreneurial decision-making and moral imagination

How entrepreneurs make decisions under extreme uncertainty and ambiguity is central to explaining entrepreneurial success. However, because of their pioneering nature, these decisions also have significant ethical implications. While there has been an increasing focus on the unique approaches entrepreneurs take to decision-making, less attention has been paid to the inherent ethical dimension of making decisions under high uncertainty. This study applies the concept of moral imagination to the challenges of making entrepreneurial decisions under Knightian uncertainty. It examines the extent to which entrepreneurs use moral imagination to integrate the ethical dimensions of pioneering situations into their decision-making.     

Implementation issues in a grid-based multi-agent simulation system used for increasing labor supply

This paper describes issues of implementation for a Grid-based multi-agent simulation used to support decision-makers in making their decisions. Recently, social scientists including sociologists, economists, and social psychologists, have become interested in large- scale multi-agent simulation. However, users who are not familiar with operating large-scale computing resources may have a difficult time implementing these simulations. Therefore, the authors have developed a computing environment with a task-control support framework for a day care center allocation problem. In addition, we show how to implement the Grid-based multi-agent simulation system. In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of the proposed system using experiments with human subjects. By using the proposed prototype system, decision-makers were able to find near optimal solutions without examining all possible tasks.     

不确定客流条件下轨道交通全日行车计划的决策模拟

城市轨道交通系统的运输组织需要根据客流特点编制列车开行计划,其中全日行车计划是列车开行计划的基础,对列车开行方案、列车运行图和车辆运用计划具有重要影响。在简要介绍全日行车计划编制的主要内容和步骤基础上,利用Crystal Ball软件对客流计划不确定条件下的全日行车计划的编制进行模拟分析,模拟结果得到了包含更多辅助信息的决策方案,也为实际应用提供了可操作的新方法和工具。     

“In pursuit of the real deal”: A longitudinal study of VC decision making

This paper investigates actual Venture Capital (VC) decision making as it occurs over time in its natural decision environment. Our qualitative analysis is based on a comprehensive, longitudinal data set comprising 11 years of archival data from a European-based VC firm. During this time, the VC managed two funds, reviewed a total of 3631 deals, and made 35 investments. By adopting this research methodology, we can overcome several limitations of post-hoc methods and experiments commonly used in this research stream, and also have the opportunity to tackle some fundamental, yet hitherto elusive research topics. For example, our findings reveal how the importance of decision-making criteria varies between different stages of the evaluation process. They also show how VC portfolio composition and VC management time serve as important, yet to-date largely neglected decision-making criteria. Implications for research and practice are outlined.     

TMT关系强度、团队自反性对战略决策绩效的影响

基于社会网络理论与高管团队（TMT）理论相整合视角,构建TMT关系强度、团队自反性与战略决策绩效关系的理论模型,通过有效样本数据对模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明,TMT强关系对决策质量和决策承诺均产生正向影响;TMT弱关系与决策质量正相关,但与决策承诺呈负相关关系。团队自反性分别正向调节TMT强关系与决策质量、决策承诺的关系以及TMT弱关系与决策质量的关系;同时,团队自反性也调节了TMT弱关系与决策承诺的负向关系。