渝台农业合作的现状、问题与发展路径

目前,两岸经济合作框架协议（ECFA）已经正式签署,国家高度重视农业问题并对于重庆农业发展提出了具体要求和目标,同时也给予了一系列的优惠政策,渝台农业合作面临前所未有的发展机遇。本文在实地调研的基础上就渝台农业合作的现状、存在的问题进行了总结和分析,分析表明渝台农业合作处于起步阶段,发展势头良好,但在相关政策的制定、实施方面存在不少问题;就这些问题,本文从资源整合、财政和土地政策扶持、政策的针对性和可操作性以及任何解决农民创业园失地农民的就业和收入问题等方面提出了一些政策建议,并对渝台农业合作的模式进行了探讨。     

劳动力全球化视角下的中国国际竞争力变化——来自亚洲新兴国家的比较

本文从劳动力全球化视角,根据相对劳动成本平价模型,以美国为比较基准,选择东亚4国和印度为比较对象,对1991—2008年的6国相对劳动平价、实际汇率变动和相对劳动成本变动做了系列研究。研究表明,就全时期而言,中国的实际汇率与基期相比已处于升值状态,而其他发展中国家贬值程度扩大;分时期看,在东南亚金融危机前,中国具有相对劳动成本优势。东南亚金融危机后,劳动成本优势持续下降。本次金融危机后,国际竞争力继续恶化。根据研究结果,认为人民币不具升值空间,保持汇率稳定是当前的最优策略。     

“宪政转轨论”评析

中俄改革的比较研究 ,一直是新兴的转轨经济学关注的热点。1 998年俄罗斯爆发金融和经济危机 ,激进改革的支持者一度趋于沉寂。然而 ,从 1 999年下半年开始 ,俄罗斯经济出现转机 ,2 0 0 0年经济增长居世界第一 ,GDP增幅达 8 3 %。与此同时 ,中国经济改革进入攻坚的中期阶段。在这一关键阶段 ,渐进改革积累的矛盾日趋严峻 ,同时还面临加入WTO市场化改革滞后的外在压力。毫无疑问 ,中国经济仍要进行重大调整和改革。在这一背景下 ,国内外经济学界又在进一步探讨中俄改革的道路和方式问题。本文是对目前讨论的一个著名观点“宪政转轨”论进行分析和批驳。     

Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing species as in Lotka-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator-prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.     

Regret theory and policy reform ∗

This paper offers an explanation of policy reforms undertaken in times of an economic crisis. Our explanation does not depend either on conflicts of interests between different socio-economic groups, or on the informational imperfection about the effectiveness of the current policy regime. The single decision maker in our model experiences regrets when the uncertain reform outcome is worse than the status quo. We show that an economic crisis which reduces the status-quo income makes the regret-experiencing decision maker more eager to undertake reforms in times of an economic crisis, despite the higher utility costs of adjustments.     

全球化背景下发展中国家大都市区空间发展的比较研究

在过去的20年间,发展中国家大都市区空间发展经历了增长与挫折;文章选取了几个典型的发展中国家大都市区,从空间的扩展与重构、社会空间分异等方面进行了深入的剖析;总结出具有一般性的发展中国家大都市区空间发展的解析模式,并提出了解决空间发展症结的关键举措。最后,针对我国经济发展和大都市区的实际情况,进行了若干思考。     

列宁对俄国资本主义发展的经济史考察及其方法论特色——读《俄国资本主义的发展》

19世纪末 ,列宁继承马克思等经典作家对欧洲 ,尤其是对英国资本主义发展的经济史考察的传统 ,运用马克思主义的基本经济理论 ,对俄国农奴制改革以来资本主义在工业、农业部门的发展进行了经济史的考察和分析 ,不仅阐明了马克思主义的一些基本原理 ,大大发展了马克思主义 ,而且是列宁领导俄国革命的理论和现实依据。 2 0世纪 4 0年代 ,毛泽东对近代中国社会发展阶段和社会性质的考察和分析 ,提出新民主主义理论 ,可以看作是马克思、恩格斯、列宁的这一经济史考察传统的继承和发扬。     

Dollarization, economic growth, and employment

Dollarization brought price stability and higher economic growth to Ecuador. Nevertheless, unemployment remained stubbornly high. Two opposing forces explain this result: sustained growth led to higher labor demand but price stabilization triggered substitution effects by cheaper intermediate goods and capital.     

Trust and development

In this paper we examine linkages between social trust and economic development using, for the first time, a panel of data. We confirm earlier cross-sectional studies finding that trust is a significant factor in development and also show for the first time that trust significantly interacts with both investment in physical and human capital. We provide a robustness analysis of our results via a set of jackknife experiments on our main equations, and the trust coefficients and interactions are very tightly distributed, indicating that the results are not highly sample dependent. We also consider whether trust directly influences investment and find that in a panel framework it does not unless we allow for a trust–education interaction in the investment equation.