住房价格的特征法分析与“夹心层”住房需求的实证估测

本文基于对上海市600余名夹心层（青年白领）人士的问卷调查,采用特征价格法模型计量测度了住房关键性特征对上海住房价格的影响。在此基础上,根据上海市夹心层真实住房需求分布情况推算出该群体期望住房的市场价格,从而为进一步衡量夹心层住房购买力缺口提供科学依据。     

An empirical investigation of the seaport’s economic impact: Evidence from major ports in China

In this study, we investigate the impact of the seaport on host city’s economic development. Based on data from 41 major port cities in China over the period 2003–2010, our econometric analysis shows that port cargo throughput has a positive effect on the economic growth of the host city. In addition, the competing ports in the neighborhood have an even larger positive association with the local port city. Through examining some of the most dynamic ports in the world, this study provides a renewed understanding of the economic importance of seaports.     

Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries*

We use ARCH time series models to derive model based prediction intervals for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark up to 2050. For the short term (5–10 yrs), expected TFR‐errors are compared with empirical forecast errors observed in historical population forecasts prepared by the statistical agencies in these countries since 1969. Medium‐term and long‐term (up to 50 years) errors are compared with error patterns based on so‐called naïve forecasts, i.e. forecasts that assume that recently observed TFR‐levels also apply for the future.     

LOGISTICS INNOVATION: A CUSTOMER VALUE‐ORIENTED SOCIAL PROCESS

This paper reports on a qualitative, grounded theory research project conducted in the United States, Sweden, and The United Kingdom designed to explore logistics innovation as perceived by leaders of logistics service provider firms and logistics business functions within product focused firms. Analysis of 33 depth interviews conducted within seven organizations revealed activities that reflect multiple aspects of being innovative, including: (1) setting a stage for innovation; (2) identifying clues to shifts in what customers value; (3) negotiating, clarifying, and reflecting upon insights; and (4) managing inter‐organizational learning.     

新疆农村基础设施建设对农业产值影响的实证分析

本文从实证的角度分析了新疆农村生产性公共基础设施建设对农林牧渔业生产总值是否有显著影响以及贡献度的大小,进而检验新疆乡村生产性公共基础设施建设在提高农业增产方面的作用,最后提出了几点建议。     

市场经济条件下城市空间增长的多方案比较研究--以珠海市为例

市场经济条件下,城市增长中不确定性因素增多,随之而来的是城市发展前景的不确定性大大增加,对城市总体规划编制办法提出了新要求.作者以珠海为例,探索适应新形势需要的方法和手段:假设方案比较与测试等,以期强化规划对城市未来发展的适应性和成果的可操作性.     

Determinants of stock market volatility and risk premia

Summary. We show the dynamics of diverse beliefs is the primary propagation mechanism of volatility in asset markets. Hence, we treat the characteristics of the market beliefs as a primary, primitive, explanation of market volatility. We study an economy with stock and riskless bond markets and formulate a financial equilibrium model with diverse and time varying beliefs. Agents states of belief play a key role in the market, requiring an endogenous expansion of the state space. To forecast prices agents must forecast market states of belief which are beliefs of others hence our equilibrium embodies the Keynes Beauty Contest. A market state of belief is a vector which uniquely identifies the distribution of conditional probabilities of agents. Restricting beliefs to satisfy the rationality principle of Rational Belief (see Kurz, 1994, 1997) our economy replicates well the empirical record of the (i) moments of the price/dividend ratio, risky stock return, riskless interest rate and the equity premium; (ii) Sharpe ratio and the correlation between risky returns and consumption growth; (iii) predictability of stock returns and price/dividend ratio as expressed by: (I) Variance Ratio statistic for long lags, (II) autocorrelation of these variables, and (III) mean reversion of the risky returns and the predictive power of the price/dividend ratio. Also, our model explains the presence of stochastic volatility in asset prices and returns. Two properties of beliefs drive market volatility: (i) rationalizable over confidence implying belief densities with fat tails, and (ii) rationalizable asymmetry in frequencies of bull or bear states.This research was supported by a grant of the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR). We thank Kenneth Judd for constant advice which was crucial at several points in the development of this work. We also thank Kenneth Arrow, Min Fan, Michael Magill, Carsten Nielsen, Manuel Santos, Nicholas Yannelis, Ho-Mou Wu and Woody Brock for comments on earlier drafts. The RBE model developed in this paper and the associated programs used to compute it are available to the public on Mordecai Kurzs web page at http://www.stanford.edu/ mordecai.This revised version was published online in January 2005 with corrections to the Cover date.     

高层管理者应具备品德的实证研究

本项研究以高层管理者应具备的品德作为研究对象,对340名在读MBA学员进行了问卷调查。研究发现,责任心、守信、自信、创新、团队合作、进取、公正和坚韧不拔被认为是最重要的品德,而无私奉献、平易近人、谦虚、坦率、热忱、关心人、忠诚、廉洁则处于相对次要的位置。     

An Empirical Study on the Financial Support for the Rural Economic Development in Undeveloped Areas

本文以广西为实证,对金融在地区经济发展中的重要作用、强化欠发达地区农村经济金融支持的紧迫性、广西农村经济发展支持的金融效率等进行了全面深入的分析研究,提出了强化欠发达地区农村经济金融支持的具体思路。     

The Research on Financial Support for the Development of Agricultural Science and Technology： an Empirical Study of Yulin

2012年中央一号文件《关于加快推进农业科技创新持续增强农产品供给保障能力的若干意见》明确要求积极引导和鼓励金融信贷、风险投资等社会资金参与农业科技创新,大幅度增加农业科技投入。为深入了解金融支持农业科技发展情况,通过对玉林市开展的专项调查发现,由于受多种因素制约,银行业金融机构农业科技贷款逐年下降,金融支持农业科技力度亟需提升。