Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression

Economic variables usually follow a dynamic trend pattern. However, it is difficult to estimate this trend precisely as numerous economically- and statistically-based estimation methods exist. This contribution proposes a data-driven nonparametric trend that is local polynomial, to improve arbitrary trend estimations of commonly used methods concerning the selection of the smoothing parameter and the dependence structure. An iterative plug-in (IPI) algorithm determines the bandwidth endogenously and allows a theory-based interpretation of the length of growth processes. This length of the bandwidth reflects the lengths of the steady state periods. Consequently, the bandwidth identifies the time period of stable economic conditions and can detect economic changes. To demonstrate the power of this estimation approach, an extensive simulation study is performed. Furthermore, examples using US and UK GDP data along with a guide for the optimal choice of algorithms for empirical applications are provided. This proposed method yields new insights for growth dynamics, cyclical movements and their dependence.     

Measurements and determinants of multifaceted poverty in South Africa

Poverty, despite being a multifaceted concept, is commonly measured in either absolute or relative monetary terms. However, it can also be measured subjectively, as people form perceptions on their relative income, welfare and life satisfaction. This is the first study that uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to analyse poverty across various objective and subjective methods. The paper finds that while respondents' poverty status varies across methods, blacks remain the racial group most likely to be defined as poor by at least one method. The multivariate analysis reveals that the impact of some explanatory variables, such as experience of negative events, frequency of crime victimisation, health status and importance of religious activities, is mixed across methods.     

Theoretical,empirical, and operational models in hotel location research

This paper aims to review past literature on hotel location models and evaluate the state of the art, as well as set out future directions. This study divides hotel location models into three major categories: theoretical models, empirical models, and operational models. Four theoretical hotel location models are reviewed and discussed, including the tourist-historic city model, the mono-centric model, the agglomeration model, and the multi-dimensional model. Based on previous literature, six empirical models and three operational models of hotel location are elaborated. Furthermore, some challenges related to hotel location studies are discussed, and future research directions are provided. In particular, we advocate the development of more sophisticated hotel location models and the use of Geographic Information System (GIS) in hotel location analysis.     

要素禀赋、政策支持与金融资源配置:产业转移的承接模式研究

本文以商务部认定的湖南、江西省四个加工贸易梯度转移重点承接地为样本,对比分析要素禀赋、政策支持和金融资源配置的异同及其影响,在总结归纳各自承接模式的特点的基础上,提出了"精品园区+核心企业+直接融资+金融助推"的较优模式,认为政策支持是影响承接产业转移的直接因素;要素禀赋的影响力有弱化趋势;金融资源配置是影响承接力和产业结构优化升级的重要因素;对待处于不同生命周期的产业转移企业,承接的工作重点应各有侧重.因此,承接产业转移要与"转方式、调结构"的战略方向一致.注重与本地的产业互补相结合,并需要金融部门的主动参与和服务创新.     

An analytical approximation formula for European option pricing under a new stochastic volatility model with regime-switching

In this paper, an analytical approximation formula for pricing European options is obtained under a newly proposed hybrid model with the volatility of volatility in the Heston model following a Markov chain, the adoption of which is motivated by the empirical evidence of the existence of regime-switching in real markets. We first derive the coupled PDE (partial differential equation) system that governs the European option price, which is solved with the perturbation method. It should be noted that the newly derived formula is fast and easy to implement with only normal distribution function involved, and numerical experiments confirm that our formula could provide quite accurate option prices, especially for relatively short-tenor ones. Finally, empirical studies are carried out to show the superiority of our model based on S&P 500 returns and options with the time to expiry less than one month.     

科技企业孵化器利益相关者协调机制研究

科技企业孵化器作为推动国家创新驱动发展战略实施的重要载体,参与主体趋于多元化,主体间冲突以及多主体协调机制成为制约孵化器可持续发展的关键问题。基于利益相关者理论,运用探索性案例研究法,结合Y科技企业孵化器实践,构建协调机制,剖析主体之间冲突的根源。研究发现,冲突源包括利益相关者间的利益分歧和权力配置不合理,以及某个利益相关者的“利益—权力”不对称;协调机制包括通过文化协同协调由利益分歧引发的利益相关者间目标不一致,通过分散控制协调由权力配置不合理导致的利益相关者之间的权力争夺,通过动态管理和孵化服务整合协调由“利益—权力”不对称引发的利益相关者机会主义行为,最终实现各利益相关者“利益—权力”分散对称配置、彼此间关系有序。     

加工贸易对安徽省经济增长作用的实证分析

基于对安徽省加工贸易现状的总结、归纳,文章利用安徽省1999-2009年11年的时间序列数据,运用加工贸易增值系数法、加工贸易对GDP拉动度和线性回归三种实证方法,分析了加工贸易对经济增长的作用,并提出了若干政策建议。     

商业行业产权结构调整及其对企业效率影响的实证研究

产权结构的差异影响企业激励约束机制的发挥,影响资源的有效配置及利用程度,并作用于资本和劳动力的投入、生产和管理成本、产出水平、技术进步、规模经济等方面,带来企业投入产出效率的分化。商业行业上市公司的基本趋势是国有型产权结构逐渐转向法人控股型产权结构,其10多年的效率变化实证分析表明,不同产权结构的企业之间存在显著的效率差异;产权结构的调整导致了企业效率的提升。     

基于Z-Score模型的我国房地产业上市公司财务风险的实证分析

在宏观经济紧缩和严厉调控政策的影响下,我国房地产企业已经出现了显著的财务风险。本文运用Z-Score财务风险预警模型,对在深市A股上市的61家房地产企业财务风险进行了实证研究,并在此基础上针对性地提出了房地产企业加强财务管理和风险防范的建议。     

国内外上市公司内部控制信息披露的比较研究

本文对美国、英国等国家的内部控制信息披露进行了梳理和比较,对中国内部控制信息的披露提出了政策建议。