基于基尼系数的返利政策效果测评

制造商在制定来年的返利政策时,面临着对现有返利政策的效果测评问题。利用经销商个数累计百分比对应返利累计百分比的洛伦茨曲线及其衡量指标基尼系数,能在客观上对现有返利政策进行效果测评,从而为来年返利政策的调整指明方向。     

中国工业行业间的资源错配与效率损失研究

文章旨在"资源配置与总量生产率"框架下研究提升行业间资源配置效率在启动内需动力和构建国内大循环为主体的新发展格局中的重要作用。文章以1999-2013年中国工业企业数据库为研究样本，采用陈永伟、胡伟民（2011）建立的引入中间投入要素的资源配置效率研究框架，测度了资本、劳动和中间投入错配造成的效率损失和产出缺口。研究发现：（1）考察期行业间的劳动、资本、中间投入三大要素对产出的扭曲变动效应均为负数，表现为"中间投入扭曲带来的影响>资本扭曲带来的影响>劳动扭曲带来的影响"，中间投入的影响最大且呈现扩大趋势。（2）资源错配造成的产出缺口平均为8%。其中资本错配造成的效率损失约为劳动错配造成效率损失的2倍，中间投入造成的资源错配效率损失约为劳动错配造成效率损失的4倍。（3）工业产出和TFP变动的分解表明，要素投入增长依旧是中国工业发展的决定性因素，各行业TFP的提升主要动力源于各个行业总体TFP的增长，份额效应和扭曲改变效应微乎其微。（4）资源错配影响因素的分析表明，行业集中度越高、国有企业比重越大的行业存在不同程度的资本和中间投入过量问题。文章研究表明加强中间投入的资源优化配置对于启动内需和构建双循环体系有着重要的意义。     

Intra-operator mobile plan switching: Evidence from linked survey and billing microdata

This paper examines consumers' intra-operator mobile phone plan switching in Ireland. It models the factors associated with switching outcomes, including the direction of change in expenditure and whether those who are observed to switch plans tend to arrive at more or less optimal plans given their usage. A dataset is employed that combines survey responses from mobile consumers with the same consumers' actual usage data in the period 2017–2019; this was collected by Ireland's national regulatory authority. The cost each consumer would have incurred on every plan offered in the market based on their observed usage is estimated. Using models that allow for selection into switching, associations between switching outcomes and demographic and user characteristics are modelled. Controls are included for plan and user attributes, including demographics and proxies for user sophistication and access to alternative communication options. A substantial proportion of intra-operator switchers in the sample increase expenditures when they switch plan. While many switchers move to plans that are more optimal given their usage, a slight majority move to plans that charge a higher price premium over the best available plan (based on observables) than the consumer's previous plan did. Few observable characteristics of consumers or plans seem to be significantly associated with which switches achieve greater optimality, although fixed operator effects are large and significant. These findings add to the weight of evidence which finds that many consumers fail to arrive at the best price even after switching.     

入境旅游季节性测度及影响因素研究——基于上海的实证分析

季节性是入境旅游的典型特征之一,对旅游业发展具有重要影响。本文以2004—2019年入境旅游月度数据为样本,采用变异系数、月度指数测度上海入境旅游需求季节性,并构建面板数据模型分析上海入境旅游需求季节性影响因素。研究发现:①上海入境旅游月集中度波动频繁,季节性明显;②上海入境旅游季节形式表现为中间低,两边高的"M"型,在全年范围内形成旺季、平季和淡季3个旅游季节,其中3月、4月、5月、10月和11月为旺季,1月和2月为淡季,其余月份为平季;③长途客源市场季节性波动较小,但总体季节性较高;短途客源市场季节性在降低,但其内部客源地存在季节性过高和季节性过低的两极分化现象。④经济、气候和社会因素均不同程度显著影响上海入境旅游季节性。