Varying Coefficient Regression Models: A Review and New Developments

Varying coefficient regression models are known to be very useful tools for analysing the relation between a response and a group of covariates. Their structure and interpretability are similar to those for the traditional linear regression model, but they are more flexible because of the infinite dimensionality of the corresponding parameter spaces. The aims of this paper are to give an overview on the existing methodological and theoretical developments for varying coefficient models and to discuss their extensions with some new developments. The new developments enable us to use different amount of smoothing for estimating different component functions in the models. They are for a flexible form of varying coefficient models that requires smoothing across different covariates' spaces and are based on the smooth backfitting technique that is admitted as a powerful technique for fitting structural regression models and is also known to free us from the curse of dimensionality.     

敦煌种业财务绩效评价研究

选择以农业上市公司敦煌种业为研究对象,以企业2014—2019年的报表数据为基础,采用功效系数法并以国务院国资委所编写的《企业绩效评价标准值》中国有企业绩效评价体系作为参考,构建对农业企业的财务指标评价体系,对敦煌种业2014-2019年企业财务指标的表现进行纵向分析,选择同行业中营业收入水平较高的北大荒进行横向对比,通过对比发现敦煌种业的问题主要体现在盈利能力和资产质量方面,对此提出了改进措施及建议。     

企业财务风险预警指标体系构建研究

本文以现有财务管理、财务预警系统理论和实践研究为基础,从筹资风险、投资风险、经营风险和收益分配风险四个方面建立财务风险预警指标体系,最后通过使用层次分析法、综合功效系数法等技术,设计了一套初级的企业财务风险预警模型。本文以我国深市所有石油上市公司为研究样本,有一定的实际价值。     

中国政府科技投入变化态势及与经济增长的关系

全面剖析了1953—2014年中国政府科技投入的规模和强度的变化态势,系统分析了政府科技投入与经济增长的弹性系数的变化情况。通过回归分析和协整检验,分析了1953—2014年中国政府的科技投入与经济增长的相关性。结果表明:1953—2014年中国政府科技投入的规模和强度不断加大,政府科技投入对经济增长的平均贡献率达到13.2%;政府科技投入与GDP增长之间存在较强的正相关关系和长期动态均衡关系。指出:为实施创新驱动发展战略、实现建设创新型国家的宏伟目标,应稳定增加政府科技投入、优化科技投入结构、完善和创新科技投入管理体制机制。     

The impact of agricultural policy on farm income concentration: the case of regional implementation of the CAP direct payments in Italy

One of the objectives of agricultural policy worldwide concerns the support of farm income. Common Agricultural Policy direct payments (DPs) are the main instruments to support farm income in the European Union. This article addresses their role in the concentration of farm income. This is done by calculating the Gini coefficient and its disaggregation in a large sample of Italian farms in the period between 2006 and 2007. Although this approach has been used to develop ex‐post analysis in previous studies, this article is innovative given that it is used here in an ex ante analysis aimed at evaluating the likely impact of a recent reform proposal. This latter requests changing the current model to a regional model of DPs application to make payment rates (i.e., payment per hectare) homogeneous among farms in the same region. The analysis shows that DPs and farm incomes are both very concentrated but that DPs allow for an income concentration reduction in Italian farms. The shift to a regional implementation reduces DPs concentration and, to a limited extent, farm income concentration. Of the considered regionalization scenarios, those that redistribute DPs among regions are the most effective in reducing concentration. The extension of the Gini considered approach to an ex ante setting seems effective because it provides insights that could feed the policy debate regarding the forthcoming reform.     

民族山地特色经济研究——以芭蕉侗族乡茶叶经济为例

湖北民族地区主要以山地地形为主,但又各具特色.本文在调查芭蕉侗族乡具有茶叶特色的山地经济的基础上,运用泰尔系数对其进行较为详尽的分析,并寻求原因,进而初步建构了适合芭蕉侗族乡的山地经济开发系统.     

The trend of the Gini coefficient of China (1978–2010)

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a new approach to analyse the effects of an overlap term on the calculation of the overall Gini coefficient and estimates China’s Gini ratios since the adoption of the economic reform and open-door policies. A decomposition of the Chinese Gini coefficient for 1978–2010 reveals that the key factor contributing to income inequalities is the income disparity between rural and urban inhabitants. We further investigate the features of this income inequality between rural and urban areas and employ statistical approaches to evaluate the effects of urbanisation and rural-to-urban average income on nationwide income inequality. The results show that accelerating the pace of urbanisation is mainly responsible for decreasing China’s income disparity. Drawing on these results, we conclude with suggestions for related policies.     

筏板基础下碎石桩改良软土地基性能的数值研究

为解决传统碎石桩加固软土地基研究中忽视碎石桩侧向膨胀的问题,在对筏板基础下碎石桩排水荷载条件下加固软土地基的性能进行评估的基础上,利用PLAXIS 3D数值模拟方法研究了桩间距、直径和桩长等参数对筏板基础长期性能的影响,同时分析了各参数对筏板基础整体沉降、弯矩和碎石桩侧胀的影响。结果表明：1）软土中碎石桩的存在显著降低了筏板基础的沉降和弯矩;2）碎石桩的侧向胀形分布取决于其位置的深度;3）筏板基础的沉降、弯矩和侧向胀形随着间距与桩径比的减小、面积置换率和碎石桩长度的增加而增加;4）采用长厚比为0.75的碎石桩加固软土,可以达到良好的加固效果。研究结果对于全面了解筏板基础下碎石桩改良软土的侧胀性状具有重要意义,对于今后类似工程加固设计具有参考借鉴价值。     

我国社会保障支出的地区差异分析

文章首先运用GE指数分解法,分析我国社会保障支出区域差异及贡献率;然后运用GINI系数分解法,分析社会保障各项支出对总体差异的贡献率。结果表明:三大区域总体、区域内及区域间的差异基本呈下降趋势,期间略有起伏,但区域内差异远远大于区域间差异;东部、中部和西部地区差异变动趋势不一致,且对总体差异的贡献率差别较大;社会保障各项支出的贡献率差异较大,其中社会保障补助支出成为总体差异的主体因素。文章最后对实际测算结果作进一步分析,并提出相应的政策建议。     

新疆旅游业投入产出分析

本文以新疆2002年和2007年投入产出表为依据,从直接消耗系数和完全消耗系数、感应度系数和影响力系数以及投入产出乘数效应这三方面对新疆旅游业进行投入产出分析后发现,新疆旅游业对新疆经济的推动作用有限,旅游业自身的发展依赖于交通运输业、批发零售业、住宿餐饮业及交通运输设备业的发展,且旅游业的发展并未带来交通运输业的显著发展。