Learning in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model

We evaluate the empirical relevance of learning by private agents in an estimated medium-scale DSGE model. We replace the standard rational expectations assumption in the Smets and Wouters (2007) model by a constant-gain learning mechanism. If agents know the correct structure of the model and only learn about the parameters, both expectation mechanisms produce very similar results, and only the transition dynamics that are generated by specific initial beliefs seem to improve the fit. If, instead, agents use only a reduced information set in forming the perceived law of motion, the implied model dynamics change and, depending on the specification of the initial beliefs, the marginal likelihood of the model can improve significantly. These best-fitting models add additional persistence to the dynamics and this reduces the gap between the IRFs of the DSGE model and the more data-driven DSGE-VAR model. However, the learning dynamics do not systematically alter the estimated structural parameters related to the nominal and real frictions in the DSGE model.     

创建学习型组织中学习力的核心问题研究

通过对《比狼学得快》的故事的阐述,引出学习型组织的基本概念及五项修炼的基本内涵,剖析了现代企业管理中对五项修炼理论的运用,提出了提升企业竞争力的核心是学习力的问题,优势的建立就是要比竞争对手学习得更快。     

地方高校英语专业人才培养的问题及对策研究

在当前全国就业压力形势较为严峻,但各知名高校、重点大学的毕业生纷纷趋向大城市,而中小城市以及农村却又急需大量人才的背景下,地方高校承担着对地方经济社会发展培养实用性人才的任务。但当前地方高校的人才培养模式还不能够完全适应于地方经济社会的发展,尤其在英语专业的人才培养方面更为突出。因此,发掘现有地方高校英语专业的人才培养中出现的问题,并找到相应的解决思路,是各教育管理部门和教育工作者必须面对和认真思考的问题。     

旅游者价值视角下乡村旅游影响因素探析

以乡村旅游中旅游者价值为切入点,分析旅游者参与乡村旅游的动机及旅游者感知价值构成要素,找出了乡村旅游开发中影响旅游者感知价值的主要因素,提出在乡村旅游中应从提高旅游者感知价值出发提高旅游者满意度和忠诚度,使旅游者产生品牌忠诚而重复购买,以推动我国乡村旅游实现产业升级和可持续发展。     

多重目标下的跨国银行FDI动机和区位选择——基于跨国银行面板数据变截距固定效应模型的检验

依据1986年-2008年期间以外国金融直接投资的形式在我国设立商业存在的跨国银行数据、运用Panel Data变截距固定效应模型GLS估算方法,检验了跨国银行进入我国的动机和区位选择的影响因素.结果发现,跨国银行进入我国"追求利润"的动机比"客户追随"的动机更加强烈;而制度质量上接近的程度则是跨国银行进行区位选择的决定性因素.     

Towards a real-time prediction of waiting times in emergency departments: A comparative analysis of machine learning techniques

Emergency Departments (EDs) can better manage activities and resources and anticipate overcrowding through accurate estimations of waiting times. However, the complex nature of EDs imposes a challenge on waiting time prediction. In this paper, we test various machine learning techniques, using predictive analytics, applied to two large datasets from real EDs. We evaluate the predictive ability of Lasso, Random Forest, Support Vector Regression, Artificial Neural Network, and the Ensemble Method, using different error metrics and computational times. To improve the prediction accuracy, new queue-based variables, that capture the current state of the ED, are defined as additional predictors. The results show that the Ensemble Method is the most effective at predicting waiting times. In terms of both accuracy and computational efficiency, Random Forest is a reasonable trade-off. The results have significant practical implications for EDs and hospitals, suggesting that a real-time performance monitoring system that supports operational decision-making is possible.     

从语用学的角度分析英语广告语言的特点

本文从大量的英语广告实例入手,探讨英语广告语言的词汇、句式和修辞等三大特点,并从语用学的角度对英语广告语言的语用基础进行分析。     

Forecasting U.S. money growth using economic uncertainty measures and regularisation techniques

This paper examines the out-of-sample forecasting properties of six different economic uncertainty variables for the growth of the real M2 and real M4 Divisia money series for the U.S. using monthly data. The core contention is that information on economic uncertainty improves the forecasting accuracy. We estimate vector autoregressive models using the iterated rolling-window forecasting scheme, in combination with modern regularisation techniques from the field of machine learning. Applying the Hansen-Lunde-Nason model confidence set approach under two different loss functions reveals strong evidence that uncertainty variables that are related to financial markets, the state of the macroeconomy or economic policy provide additional informational content when forecasting monetary dynamics. The use of regularisation techniques improves the forecast accuracy substantially.     

Let the evidence speak again! Financial incentives are more effective than we thought

In this essay, the authors rejoin the debate about financial incentive effectiveness. They (a) briefly review the state of the literature in 1998, (b) highlight new meta‐analytic findings and update conclusions regarding the financial incentives–performance relationship, (c) address the myth that financial incentives erode intrinsic motivation, (d) provide explanations for the presumed failure of financial incentives and (e) offer some concluding thoughts and suggestions for future research.     

试论高校图书馆馆员素质

在图书馆工作的构成要素中,馆员的素质是关键要素,它直接决定着图书馆服务工作的质量高低,是图书馆事业的关键。本文通过分析高校图书馆馆员素质要求和现状,提出提高馆员素质的方法。