山区公路交通流特性分析与评价

首先由观测数据确定代表车型的运行速度,采用实际路段调查得到的运行速度作为评价指标,分析山区公路的交通流运行状况,然后通过实地调查采集山区公路典型断面的交通流数据,统计交通量、交通组成以及不同车型运行速度的分布情况,并通过分析交通组成以及车速连贯性和离散性等直接影响道路交通安全的因素,对事故多发路段的交通流运行状态特征进行分析和评价。最后,选取京昆高速公路某典型路段,对该路段的交通流特性进行分析与评价,可为相关工作人员提供借鉴和帮助。     

农业高新技术投资项目风险评价

The agricultural high-teeh investment project （AHIP） is eharaeterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agrtcultral projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity, analysis and probability ore defer. Therefore; this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.     

Strategic freedom, constraint, and symmetry in one-period markets with cash and credit payment

Summary. In order to explain in a systematic way why certain combinations of market, financial, and legal structures may be intrinsic to certain capabilities to exchange real goods, we introduce criteria for abstracting the qualitative functions of markets. The criteria involve the number of strategic freedoms the combined institutions, considered as formalized strategic games, present to traders, the constraints they impose, and the symmetry with which those constraints are applied to the traders. We pay particular attention to what is required to make these strategic market games well-defined, and to make various solutions computable by the agents within the bounds on information and control they are assumed to have. As an application of these criteria, we present a complete taxonomy of the minimal one-period exchange economies with symmetric information and inside money. A natural hierarchy of market forms is observed to emerge, in which institutionally simpler markets are often found to be more suitable to fewer and less-diversified traders, while the institutionally richer markets only become functional as the size and diversity of their users gets large.Received: 5 June 2003, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: C7, G10, G20, L10, D40, D50. Correspondence to: Eric SmithEric Smith, Martin Shubik: We are grateful to Lloyd Shapley, Duncan Foley, and Doyne Farmer for discussions in the course of this work.     

政府部门绩效审计评价：基于预算的视角

随着政府绩效审计在我国的逐步开展，政府绩效审计评价已成为当前理论和实务界探讨较多的领域，评价指标的设置和评价方法的选取更是焦点。本文在回顾近年来我国政府绩效审计评价研究的基础上，从预算这一独特的视角，探讨了我国政府部门绩效审计评价指标的构建和评价方法的选择。     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

Non-commitment in performance evaluation and the problem of information distortions

Auditing is modeled in a sequential game without commitment. The manager must decide whether and where to audit a worker's output, taking into account all interim information he has obtained. The worker will work just hard enough (and show it) to divert the manager from making an audit or cover up, withholding information about his work to make an audit more difficult. This usually raises the costs of setting work incentives, so incentives are softened, sometimes drastically. Moreover, when a worker's on-the-job information is valuable for entrepreneurial decisions, work incentives must be softened to improve the internal flow of information.     

企业内部组织单元绩效评价:一项有效的制度安排

企业内部组织单元绩效评价是企业绩效评价体系的重要组成部分,是连接企业整体绩效评价与员工个人绩效评价的中间环节。应用委托代理理论对企业内部组织单元绩效评价的地位在理论上进行了分析,并对企业内部组织单元绩效评价的功能也进行了系统分析,认为企业内部组织单元绩效评价是一项有效的制度安排,是解决企业内部组织委托代理链上委托代理关系的重要手段。     

武汉市制造业吸引外商投资对策研究

本文在课题组对武汉市制造业吸引外商投资的现状调查、对国内外吸引外商投资的经验和教训的总结以及对国际资本流动特点和趋势分析的基础上,提出了武汉市制造业吸引外商投资的若干政策建议,其内容包括:提高武汉市整体经济发展水平;领悟WTO规则,转变政府职能;提升武汉市制造业产业集聚能力;为招商引资创造各种条件;注重对吸引外资的管理等等.     

The Application of Sensitivity Analysis on Comprehensive Transportation Evaluation

Comprehensive transportation evaluation objects using multi-objective decision method is a process of choosing the best one from a few objects through calculating, analyzing, and comparing the index system. The result may be different because of the difference of the index weight and index value. Therefore, sensitivity analysis should be one of the necessary parts of the decision-making. It is desired to give the index with higher sensitivity and its varying scope to control the index strictly during the execution process. This paper derives transfer index weight, which changes the rank evaluation order of the projects. Meanwhile, a simple, effective and practical method based on sensitivity district and sensitivity matrix is proposed for the sensitivity analysis of decision-making. As an example, the index sensitivity in decision-making of some provinces comprehensive transportation objects, and their influence on the final decision are discussed.     

Coupling relationship between environment and economyof metropolis：a case study of Chongqing, China

City is a coupling system of economy, society and environment. The urban environment is a supporting systemto the sustainable development of city. Taking the urban area of Chongqing as an example, this paper establishes theindicator system for assessment of the coordination between urban environment and economy according to the resultfrom principal component analyses by software SPSS11.0. Meanwhile, the weight was assigned for each indicator basedon the load of the first proper principal components. Through computation of the coordinated development model set upaccording to the knowledge of statistics, the paper draws the conclusion that the situation of the coordination betweenenvironment and economy in Chongqing developed well from 1996 to 2004. Finally, countermeasures for the coordina-tion in the coming years are proposed.