On the determinants of UK unemployment and the Great Recession: analysing the gross flows data

This article provides a detailed analysis of the gross worker flows data in the United Kingdom between 1997 and 2010, with particular emphasis on the 2008/2009 recession and its aftermath. Utilizing flows data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), the dominant macroeconomic factors driving unemployment in the United Kingdom before, during and after the recessionary period are identified. Amongst the salient findings of this article is a striking decline in job-to-job movements throughout and beyond the recent recession. This discovery adds a new dimension to the existing literature in this field.     

Measuring the natural yield curve

We generalize the concept of the natural rate of interest (Laubach and Williams, 2003; Woodford, 2003) by defining and estimating the natural yield curve (NYC) – the term structure of natural interest rates. Our motivation stems i.a. from the observation that at times when central banks attempt to directly affect long-term interest rates (e.g. via quantitative easing) the gap between the short-term real and natural rate is no more a good indicator of the monetary policy stance. We estimate the NYC on US data, document its main properties and show i.a. that in the period 2008 to 2011 the NYC allows to better capture the US monetary policy stance than the short-term natural rate.     

Net job creation in the US economy: lessons from monthly data, 1950–2011

This article studies the monthly net job creation (NJC) at the aggregate and the sectoral levels in the United States over the period 1950 to 2011. The article has few important findings. First, NJC did not show a significant trend over the last six decades, which led to a fall in the NJC rate. Second, NJC was very volatile and it could change course even in the span of 1 month. Third, there was no clear pattern about the co-movement between NJC and the change in the unemployment rate. Fourth, the averages of total NJC and private NJC since late 2010 were significantly higher than their respective historical averages and the volatility in NJC since the end of the Great Recession was not unusual by historical standards. Fifth, while the evidence about the effects of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on employment is inconclusive, some sectors appeared to benefit from it. Finally, the most frequent drop in the unemployment rate was by 0.1%, and drops of more than 0.2% should not be highly expected.     

Households' Preferences and Exchange Rate Overshooting

Abstract

This paper uses a ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model to study the effect of a shock to Households' preferences on exchange rate dynamics. The special features of the model are that Households' preferences exhibit a ‘catching-up with the Joneses’ effect and that international financial markets are imperfectly integrated. Results of numerical simulations of the model demonstrate that these features imply that, in an otherwise standard ‘New-Open-Economy Macroeconomic’ model, a shock to Households' preferences can give rise to an overshooting of the exchange rate.     

Asymmetric Exchange Rates and Unofficial Exchange Rate Interventions: The Case of South Korea

Applying Milton Friedman's ‘plucking’ model of output fluctuations, we investigate the behavior of the Korean won/dollar exchange rate using a state-space model with Markov switching, which incorporates both symmetric and asymmetric shocks. We find that the Korean won/US dollar exchange rate rarely falls below its trend, but is plucked upward from time to time by transitory shocks. This asymmetry suggests that the monetary authority unofficially intervenes in the foreign exchange market to support its own target level from below. Further evidence from changes in reserve assets indirectly supports our finding.     

Inflation Effects on Finance-Growth Link: A Panel Smooth Threshold Approach

This paper proposes an original framework to examine whether the strength of the relationship between financial development and economic growth, widely documented in the recent empirical literature, varies with the inflation rate. Using a Panel Smooth Threshold Regression for 71 developed and developing countries over the period 1960–2004, we find a non-linear link between financial development and economic growth: three equilibriums are identified with inflation rate. Then, there is an inflation threshold, for which finance ceases to increase economic growth. Our results suggest that for an inflation rate higher than 20%, economic growth is not, or is negatively, affected by financial development, whereas the impact of finance on growth is positive and significant for an inflation level below 10%.     

Women and Minorities in Introductory Economics Textbooks: 1974 to 1984

The authors conducted a painstaking review of widely used economics textbooks to determine if or how issues relating to race and gender are treated. In doing so, the authors also shed light on the nature of the treatment of these issues.     

The Dilemmas of Technology: A Review Article

During the 1990s, all of the European transition economies (TE) experienced a major recession and suffered from the explosion of income inequality. However, distribution of income between labor and capital differed greatly from one group of post-communist countries to another. The paper discusses and analyzes linkages between models of capitalism that emerged in former communist countries in the 1990s and the outcome of capitalist transition for labor in terms of income distribution and inequality. It is based on the estimates of the Marxian rate of exploitation and other indicators of labor income performance during the reform period.     

Reform of Metropolitan Governments; Minority Perspectives; Metropolitanization and Public Services

America has often been labeled a "throw-away" society due to the large amount of products that could have been reused but are discarded from a typical household on a daily basis. This paper attempts to answer the question of why, when given two consumers with the same income level and socio-economic background, does one consumer choose to replace an older, malfunctioning household product while the other chooses to have the product repaired for further reuse. To help address this question an enhanced replacement model is presented and empirically tested. The replacement model has been around for some time, helping consumers and firms make capital budgeting decisions. This analysis can be extrapolated to the macro level where one economy with a higher societal discount rate might be more strongly characterized as a "throw-away society" than a similar economy with lower societal consumption discount rates.     

Causes of world trade growth in agricultural and food products, 1951–2000: a demand function approach

The objective of the present study is to analyse the causes of the growth of international agricultural and food trade in volume terms from 1951 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth has been the principal reason for this expansion, while exchange rate stability and the real price of agricultural products played only a minor role. Multilateral trade liberalization and trade costs, given their long-term stability, are not elements that could have stimulated their growth. Finally, the intensive liberalization of trade which took place in various economic regions, especially in Europe, became a key factor in promoting agricultural trade among the countries participating in regional trade agreements. The study results also indicate that the determinants of trade growth for these goods were different to those for other goods and other periods.