Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

结构异质性对中国能源高质量发展的影响研究

基于结构异质性对能源高质量发展影响的理论分析,使用稀疏主成分分析方法测度中国能源高质量发展水平,构建中国和八大经济区域面板分位数回归模型,实证研究了结构异质性对中国能源高质量发展的影响。结果表明：2003—2020年中国能源高质量发展水平有所提升,但仍存在明显的区域发展不平衡问题,西部地区和北部沿海地区的能源高质量发展水平更高。产业结构与能源高质量发展水平呈负相关关系,能源消费结构、资本配置结构与能源高质量发展水平呈正相关关系。     

回归分析在土地估价中的应用

回归分析是一种统计学方法，在地价分析与测算中得到广泛应用。本文从统计学的角度阐明了回归分析的原理，并介绍了如何建立回归方程解决土地估价中出现的有关问题。     

货币政策影响居民储蓄行为的有效性分析

本选取了我国1994年至2000年的统计数据，通过统计学的方法来分析货币政策在分流我国居民的巨额储蓄时是否有效，并进一步分析了对货币政策效果产生干扰的制度因素。     

探究“新零销售”模式下影响销售量的相关因素

在新零销售模式的推动下,客户越来越倾向于消费个性化的商品。为了精准预测客户的消费需求,论文以单款单色产品为研究对象,通过建立多元回归分析的数学模型,来探究影响商品销售量的相关因素。经过分析发现,除了一些定性因素外,定量因素对销售量也产生了一定的影响,其中实际花费总金额、实际销售单价、库存数等定量因素对销售量的影响较大,且各个变量之间具有相关性,所以电商平台应特别关注这三个变量的影响。     

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

Distributional assumptions and a test of the dual labor market hypothesis

Recent application of the switching regression model to allocate workers into the primary and secondary labor markets is considered to be the best solution to the classification problem of the empirical testing of the dual labor market theory. In such models, normality of the error terms is assumed. This paper adopts the switching regression model to test the dual labor market theory by assuming different distributions of the error terms. The test results strongly support the dual labor market theory regardless of the assumption one makes about the error terms. However, the results indicate that different distribution can lead to different percentage distributions of workers in the two segments. In particular, the normal distribution generates more workers in the primary segment than the non-normal distributions. Therefore, care must be taken not to generalize the type of industries or occupations that fall under the primary and secondary segments. First version received: October 2000/Final version received: March 2002 RID="*" ID="*"  I would like to thank Kevin Lang, Robert Marshall, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. I am grateful for comments received from the session participants of the Western Economic Association International Conference, San Francisco, CA, June 28–July 2, 1996, and the Midwest Economic Association Conference, Kansas City, 1997. I thank George Bonney, the Chief Statistician of Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia for his comments. Any remaining errors are my responsibility. I gratefully acknowledge financial support from Penn State Research and Development Grant, 1995.     

Asymptotic behaviour of regression pre-test estimators with minimal Bayes risk

Pre-test estimators (PTE) are considered which are optimal under a Bayes risk among PTE with general measurable sets as “regions of significance” for the test statistic t associated with the estimate of a given regression coefficient. Asymptotic and some finite sample results are stated and numerical experiments are commented on.     

基于高频数据的深圳基金市场日内周期性研究

本文利用深市基金指数高频数据,采用Anderson和Bollerslev(1997)提出的弹性傅立叶回归(FlexibleFourierFormregression,即FFF回归)方法首次对深市基金市场进行了日内周期性的研究。通过对高频收益的定性分析,发现基金市场具有同股票市场相似的周期性,并对这一周期性进行了初步的理论解释。通过FFF方法,将该周期因子进行滤波处理以后,基金指数高频绝对收益不再具有明显周期性。FFF回归能较好地确定日内周期因子。