Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?

This paper examines whether the rational jumpiness/stubbornness hypothesis can explain forecast biases. Using a dataset of professional GDP forecasts for the G7 countries over the period 1989–2010, we find evidence supporting the rational stubbornness hypothesis. Specifically, forecasters underreact more when large forecast revisions are highly indicative of low forecast ability. Underreaction is less likely when the size of forecast revisions is unrelated to ability. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that forecasters choose to smooth GDP forecasts to maximize their perceived ability.     

我国对外贸易顺差相对规模的测度与分析：1994-2004

运用贸易顺差／进出口比率以及贸易顺差／国内生产总值比率两个指标对1994-2004年我国的贸易顺差相对规模进行的测度和分析表明，我国相对贸易顺差指标运行在较低水平并且出现显著的下降趋势。我国相对贸易顺差的变动与进出口总额的变动及国内生产总值的变动显著背离。国外对我国贸易保护主义的指责没有事实根据，对我国采取贸易保护主义措施也只能加大对我国的双边贸易逆差。     

经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入影响的实证分析

文章通过建立回归模型.分析经济增长和产业结构时广西财政收入的影响.分析得出经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入有着显著影响,据此提出对策和建议.     

刺激居民消费拉动经济增长

自1997年以来,我国经济增长一直呈回落态势。其最直接、最主要的原因是社会需求不足,在社会需求中对经济增长贡献率最大的是消费,而拉动经济增长的关键是刺激居民消费。笔者就目前居民消费的特点、起动消费难的原因以及刺激居民消费增长的措施进行了探讨。     

Modelling spillover effects of public transportation means: An intra-modal GVAR approach for Athens

In this work, we employ the GVAR model in order to analyze demand aspects of a multimodal public transportation system. The methodology is applied to the Athens region, Greece. GVAR provides a relevant econometric modelling framework for assessing relationships between economic entities, such as transportation modes, by analyzing the relative shocks and channels of transmission mechanisms among them. According to our findings, which are consistent with the existing literature, the system of all public transportation modes in the wider Athens region, is relatively flexible to unexpected – intramodal or macroeconomic – shocks.     

投资者情绪对中国 IPO首日收益率影响的实证分析

以2009年1月～2014年3月上证交易数据为样本,利用主成分分析法构建基于中国国情的投资者情绪综合指数（ CICSI ）,并采用VAR模型、格兰杰因果关系检验和脉冲响应等方法考查投资者情绪综合指数与中国IPO首日收益率之间的动态关系。结果表明,投资者情绪对IPO首日收益率有显著的正向影响;同时,IPO首日收益率的波动也会对投资者情绪波动有显著的冲击,但产生的影响在时间上会相对滞后。实证分析结果有助于了解投资者的行为特征、决策的过程及影响机制,对于投资者的管理与引导、定价效率的提高、相关机制的完善具有现实意义。     

当代青年的社会态度及其启示——基于辽宁省14市1912名青年的调查

调查发现,当代青年关注社会大局,重视道德规范,对政府工作态度评价较高,但其创业意愿较低,对收入分配持负面印象,且认为生活环境欠缺安全。因此,要引导青年认识到社会理想实现过程是前进性与曲折性的辩证运动过程,从青年自治和社会环境重构青年道德体系出发,发挥群团组织在促进青年就业方面的作用,并监测青年舆情,以促进社会和谐发展。     

关于土地节约和集约利用问题的思考

文章从分析土地节约和集约利用问题提出的经济社会背景出发，论述我国土地资源所面临的严峻形势，着重阐述土地节约和集约利用的一般理论和分析新视角．提出单位产值占地率与单位用地产出率同等重要的观点，以及评价土地节约和集约利用水平的一般方法，最后全面系统地论述提高土地节约和集约利用水平的途径。     

南京市能源利用及可持续利用研究

在全国的大背景之下,对南京市能源使用量、能源结构、能源利用效率、能源利用对环境的影响等能源利用现状作了仔细的研究,对三种情况下的南京未来能源使用前景作了情景分析,并在协调经济可持续发展与生态环境保护的目标下探索了未来南京的能源保障及集约利用策略。     

Global-scale assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity

This paper presents an approach of combining biophysical, social, and economic factors for spatially explicit assessment of potential future risks of food insecurity at a global scale over the period of 2000–2020 under a certain scenario. In doing that, two indicators, namely per capita food availability and per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), were selected to cover the four dimensions of food security, with the former representing the status of food availability and stability, and the latter reflecting the situation of food accessibility and affordability. These two indicators were then linked to an integrated modeling framework. Under this framework, a GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment, a crop choice decision model was used to model the changes in crop areas through tracking the crop choice decisions, and the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the crop price in the international market. Based on these two indicators, the potential risks of food insecurity were assessed with a spatial resolution of six arc-minutes. The results show that both changes in per capita food availability and changes in per capita GDP during 2000–2020 vary across regions worldwide. Some regions such as China, most eastern European countries, and most southern American countries where there is an increase in per capita food availability or an increase in the capacity to import food between 2000 and 2020 might be able to improve their food security situation. On the contrary, certain regions such as southern Asia and most African countries will likely remain hotspots of food insecurity in the future. In these regions, both the per capita food availability and the capacity of being able to import food will decrease between 2000 and 2020. Although most developed countries will also experience both a decrease in per capita food availability and a decrease in per capita GDP, these countries are likely to be food-secure due to their higher income and purchasing power.