国内外黄金市场价格间的联动关系稳定吗?——基于外部冲击视角的分析

在全球金融市场不断开放和融合的大背景下,黄金市场不但与外部市场频繁互动,其系统内部的联动关系也变得极为多元和复杂,黄金市场间的价格联动反映了信息和风险在不同市场间的传递过程。黄金价格通常会受到外部因素干扰而产生波动,但市场间的联动关系是否会因此而改变是值得重点关注的问题,黄金市场功能的有效性及稳固的市场关系是投资者利用全球黄金市场进行对冲和避险的先决条件,同时也关系到整个金融市场的稳定性。本文将研究重点聚焦于黄金市场内部,在研究中外各主要黄金市场间动态相关性和波动溢出效应的同时引入外部冲击以检验不同因素对黄金期货、现货市场间联动关系的影响从而探讨国内外黄金市场间价格联动的稳定性问题。结果表明:中国与全球主要黄金期货、现货市场间整体上保持了正相关关系,同时与各主要黄金市场间均存在显著的波动溢出效应。在一般市场条件下,外部冲击并没有显著改变中国与全球主要黄金期货、现货市场间的联动关系,表明黄金市场内部的价格联动具有较强的稳定性。     

耐用品、投资专有冲击与货币政策福利

本文构建蕴含耐用品与非耐用品的两部门DSGE模型,研究投资专有冲击对货币政策及社会福利的影响。投资专有技术进步改进了投资转化为生产资本的效率,放大边际成本波动,增加了厂商调价动机和价格水平变动。即使耐用品价格完全灵活,最优货币政策也无法同时稳定价格和实际GDP。研究发现:(1)耐用品相对价格缺口波动率的上升虽然增加了实际GDP波动,但能够有效地降低投资专有技术对边际成本的冲击,减少价格变动的福利损失。所以两部门投资专有冲击时,央行倾向于稳定价格水平。与其相反,在单部门投资专有冲击和两部门生产技术冲击时,最优货币政策应降低耐用品相对价格缺口波动,稳定实际GDP。(2)对比三种泰勒规则:钉住非耐用品PPI、钉住加权平均PPI及钉住CPI,福利分析发现钉住非耐用品PPI最优,钉住CPI次之,钉住加权平均PPI的福利损失最大。就损失程度而言,投资专有冲击的福利损失是生产技术冲击的2倍,表明投资专有冲击加剧了最优货币政策在稳定价格与实际GDP间的权衡。     

Quality-cum-price sorting

This paper provides new evidence on how export status relates to prices and product quality. Using firm-product-level data on production, exports and imports for a sample of Danish manufacturing firms, we present three key correlations. First, exported varieties are on average sold at lower prices relative to only domestically sold varieties. Second, exported varieties have higher quality measured by ‘demand residuals’ (i.e., they have larger sales conditional on price). Finally, exported varieties are produced using cheaper imported intermediates. We introduce the term ‘quality-cum-price sorting’ to describe this sorting environment. The observed sorting behaviour in terms of output quality and import prices works not just across firms, but also within multi-product firms across the product portfolio. In contrast, the negative exporter premium in terms of output prices vanishes once firm-level unobservables are accounted for—consistent with the idea that unobserved firm efficiency is driving the negative correlation.     

The impact of different price promotions on customer retention

This paper investigates the impact of different price promotion effects regarding two different types of service cost (i.e., a joining fee vs. a monthly fee) on retention intentions for new customers in the long-term service industry. Based on the depreciation curve, mental accounting, and the escalation of commitment theory, we predict that customers’ retention intentions will be higher when they start using a service with a free monthly fee promotion rather than when they start it with a free joining fee promotion. This expectation was confirmed by five studies; experiments, customer survey, and secondary data. The theoretical and managerial implications are also discussed.     

Do Price Barriers Exist in the European Carbon Market?

It is generally thought that psychological prices in markets primarily traded by professional participants should play a limited role. The authors investigate the existence of key reference points in the European Carbon Market, which can be considered as a market with highly qualified stakeholders. They document the presence of key levels and barrier bands around European Union Allowances (EUA) prices. It appears that traders tend to consider these price levels as resistances in upward movements and as supports in downward movements. Furthermore, the authors have observed that the existence of price barriers affects both return and volume dynamics. Therefore, the results indicate that there exist certain EUA prices that do, in fact, modify the behavior of European Carbon Market participants.     

Understanding intraday electricity markets: Variable selection and very short-term price forecasting using LASSO

We use a unique set of prices from the German EPEX market and take a closer look at the fine structure of intraday markets forelectricity, with their continuous trading for individual load periods up to 30 min before delivery. We apply the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in order to gain statistically sound insights on variable selection and provide recommendations for very short-term electricity price forecasting.     

“I just like this e-Retailer”: Understanding online consumers repurchase intention from relationship quality perspective

In an increasingly competitive market, retaining customers is essential for both e-retailers and online shopping platforms. This study focuses on relationship quality as it pertains to repurchase intentions in Ghana. The mediating role of price level is addressed. The results show that customer trust, customer commitment, and customer satisfaction affect price level. Customer trust and satisfaction affect repurchase intention, but customer commitment does not affect repurchase intention. Also, price level mediates the relationship between relationship quality and repurchase intention. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Margin trading and price efficiency: information content or price-adjustment speed?

The literature offers contradictory views on the effect of margin-trading activities on price efficiency. Based on data from a Chinese margin-trading pilot programme in 2010, we separate price efficiency into information content and price-adjustment speed and investigate the effect of margin-trading activity on price efficiency. We find that after adding to the eligible list, pilot stocks experience a decrease in information content, but an increase in price-adjustment speed. Furthermore, increased margin-buying activities are associated with lower information content, but faster price adjustment. Our results reconcile the debate over the effect of margin trading on price efficiency.     

Effects of concealing vs. displaying prices on consumer perceptions of hospitality products

This study was designed to empirically test the psychological consequences of concealing (vs. displaying) the prices of hospitality products on perceptions of expensiveness, quality, value, and purchase intention. To achieve this objective, seven hypotheses were proposed and a series of four experimental studies were conducted. It was found that a cafe that did not (vs. did) display price information was evaluated relatively highly in terms of perceived expensiveness, but relatively low in perceived quality, value, and purchase intention. Specifically, we found that the heightened perception of expensiveness of a price-concealing cafe, along with relatively weak change in quality perception, negatively influenced both perceptions of value and purchase intention in Studies 1 and 2. Further, we found that these relationships are moderated by the consumer personal trait of price consciousness (Study 3) and mediated by price fairness (Study 4).     

“暖房子”工程经济效益分析

吉林省"暖房子"工程的开展已进入第五个年头,全省累计实现改造陈旧管网7946公里,实现既有居住建筑供热计量及节能改造12865万平方米,全省供热保障能力和房屋保温能力显著增强,共计220万户(663万人)城市居民从中受益。以长春市某项目为例,采用全寿命周期理论,对吉林省"暖房子"工程进行经济效益分析,检验"暖房子"工程的合理经济性。