Sample Design and Allocation for Random Digit Dialling

Sample design and sample allocation methods are developed for random digit dialling in household telephone surveys. The proposed method is based on a two-way stratification of telephone numbers. A weighted probability proportional to size sample allocation technique is used, with auxiliary variables about the telephone coverage rates, within local telephone exchanges of each substrata. This makes the sampling design nearly “self-weighting” in residential numbers when the prior information is well assigned. A computer program generates random numbers for the local areas within the existing phone capacities. A simulation study has shown greater sample allocation gain by the weighted probabilities proportional to size measures over other sample allocation methods. The amount of dialling required to obtain the sample is less than for proportional allocation. A decrease is also observed on the gain in sample allocation for some methods through the increasing sample sizes.     

Progressive stress accelerated life tests under finite mixture models

In this paper, progressive stress accelerated life tests are considered when the lifetime of a product under use condition follows a finite mixture of distributions. The experiment is performed when each of the components in the mixture follows a general class of distributions which includes, among others, the Weibull, compound Weibull, power function, Gompertz and compound Gompertz distributions. It is assumed that the scale parameter of each component satisfies the inverse power low, the progressive stress is directly proportional to time and the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress holds. Based on type-I censoring, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLEs) of the parameters under consideration are obtained. A special attention is paid to a mixture of two Rayleigh components. Simulation results are carried out to study the precision of the MLEs and to obtain confidence intervals for the parameters involved.     

The generalized Stackelberg equilibrium of the all-pay auction with complete information

We characterize the equilibrium of the all-pay auction with general convex cost of effort and sequential effort choices. We consider a set of n players who are arbitrarily partitioned into a group of players who choose their efforts ‘early’ and a group of players who choose ‘late’. Only the player with the lowest cost of effort has a positive payoff in any equilibrium. This payoff depends on his own timing vis-a-vis the timing of others. We also show that the choice of timing can be endogenized, in which case the strongest player typically chooses ‘late’, whereas all other players are indifferent with respect to their choice of timing. In the most prominent equilibrium the player with the lowest cost of effort wins the auction at zero aggregate cost. We thank Dan Kovenock and Luis C. Corchón for discussion and helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Wolfgang Leininger likes to express his gratitude to Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB) for its generous hospitality and financial support.     

基于合作关系的供应链信息共享模式研究

首先研究了供应链上下游合作伙伴间信息共享博弈情况，并分析了影响信息共享的障碍因素。然后，从合作伙伴合作关系的视角探讨了供成链中合作伙伴的类型及合作目的，最后以此为基础构建出供应链合作伙伴的信息共事模式及技术支撑体系。     

Reviewing Oates' insights in a repeated game setting

This paper analyzes the optimal assignment of public good policies to layers of a federal system in a repeated game setting. Under a centralized regime, public goods are financed jointly across regions, and a federal legislature decides on the regional quantities. Under a decentralized regime, public goods are financed locally, and governments play a non-cooperative provision game. We find that a centralized (decentralized) regime is more likely to provide the efficient public good policies in case spillovers are small (large). Received: September 2003, Accepted: October 2004 JEL Classification: H11, H41 I wish to thank Clemens Fuest, Anke Kessler, Christoph Lülfesmann, and an anonymous referee for valuable comments on this paper. Financial support by the DFG (SPP 1142) is gratefully acknowledged.     

林业企业信息化面临的问题及对策

面对信息化时代的到来,企业信息化成为企业生存和发展的关键,文章从目前我国林业企业的现状出发,分析了林业企业信息化中存在的主要问题,并提出了相应的对策。     

The effect of interfirm dependence structures on governance mechanisms

Despite recent developments regarding the study of interdependence structures, previous research has rarely investigated the simultaneous effect of both interdependence magnitude and interdependence asymmetry on governance mechanisms among exchange parties. A survey of manufacturing companies has been used to test a theory about the interactive effect of buyer dependence and supplier dependence on inter-firm governance. The analysis of the survey supported the proposition that both buyers and suppliers that are highly dependent on each other (high interdependence magnitude and low interdependence asymmetry) may choose to rely on monitoring and the norm of information sharing. However, when a buyer's dependence is low regardless of the supplier's dependence level, the buyer does not rely on the norm of information sharing (buyer's relative interdependence advantage, buyer's relative interdependence disadvantage, and low interdependence magnitude). On the other hand, when the supplier's dependence on the buyer is low, the buyer relies on monitoring regardless of its dependence level (buyer's relative interdependence disadvantage and low interdependence magnitude). However, this study did not empirically measure performance. Further research should be done on the effect of congruence between the governance mechanism and its antecedents on buying performance.     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

建筑工程无标底招标理论与实践

随着中国建筑业管理体制改革的不断深化，招投标制度在中国得以推广应用，但在招投标机制方面还存在不足，有待完善。文章通过无标底招投标的博弈论基础，分析了无标底招标的意义和作用，同时对无标底招标的实施提出了一些相应的措施和建议，最后指出，随着中国加入WTO，与国际接轨，推广无标底招投标方法是我国建筑业招投标制度改革的当务之急。     

区域性物流园区布局方案优选的博弈研究

本文基于区域物流理论与博弈论的理论基础，建立了相应的区域性物流园区布局方案的优选博弈模型，并列出了可行的计算步骤，做出了方法评价，指出了该方法后续研究的方向，为物流园区区域性总体布局的优选问题提供了一种解决方法。