“经济人”分析范式内含的理性悖论——长远利益、为己利他与行为理性的理解

"经济人"分析范式在理性概念的使用上存在明显的逻辑悖论:基于行为功利主义的定义以及由此展开的行为分析,实质上使用的是有限理性,而在理性模型的构建和宏观经济的分析上实际使用的却是完全理性。正是由于在不同场合所使用理性内涵存在如此的不一致,现代主流经济学对短期的行为评价和长期的现象预测之间就出现了断裂。而且,现代主流经济学试图用"无形的手"将两者沟通起来,却一直无法说明"无形的手"是如何运作的。相反,基于长期利益的实现程度和"为己利他"行为机理的实施程度这一视域,可以更好地区别有限理性和完全理性这两个概念,可以更好地认识现实生活中各种行为的理性程度,从而理解社会中不同程度的合作现象。     

政府随机审计的动态博弈模型及政策启示

本文在一个三阶段动态博弈框架下,对政府随机审计过程中的政府审计机关与政府审计对象以及国家与政府审计对象之间的动态博弈特征进行了分析。分析结果显示：政府审计机关与政府审计对象之间存在一个纯策略纳什均衡,而国家和政府审计对象之间存在一个混合策略纳什均衡。政府审计对象接受国家实质性审计的概率是政府审计对象被政府机关审计发现违规或不作为后的惩罚倍数的单调递减函数,而政府审计对象的违规或不作为的概率分别是政府审计对象被政府机关审计发现违规或不作为后的惩罚倍数和政府审计对象的应尽义务或责任的单调递减函数,却是政府审计机关审计行为成本的单调递增函数。同时,结合研究结论和中国政府审计全覆盖的现实,给出了一些政策建议。     

Personalisation–privacy paradox: The effects of personalisation and privacy assurance on customer responses to travel Web sites

Personalisation refers to individualizing products, services, and contents according to customer interests and preferences. In order to deliver appropriate personalised offerings, firms inevitably need to collect rich customer data profiles. Prior research suggests that personalised services lead to positive customer responses such as increased willingness to disclose personal information and make purchases. However, another stream of research emphasizes negative outcomes of personalisation – namely, privacy concerns surrounding the use of personal information and associated negative effects on behaviour. The objectives of this study are twofold: (1) to examine how privacy assurance affects proximal outcomes of personalisation, such as perceived usefulness and privacy concerns; and (2) to identify the role such outcomes play in predicting customer behavioural responses, such as willingness to disclose personal information and make purchases. Our findings show that enhancing privacy assurance increases the perceived usefulness of services and decreases customer privacy concerns. Moreover, customer behavioural responses are positively related to the perceived usefulness of services and negatively associated with privacy concerns. However, despite the positive effects on perceived usefulness and purchase intentions, personalisation has no effect on privacy concerns and intentions to disclose personal information.     

Quota prices as indicators of comparative advantage in supply‐managed industries

The Canadian dairy, egg, broiler, and turkey industries operate under supply management, a policy regime that sets product prices and allocates production among provinces and ultimately among farms through quotas. The Canadian Farm Products Agencies Act requires that comparative advantage be used to guide the allocation of new quota when increases in consumer demand necessitate increased production. This requirement, however, has not been met in practice. We develop a proposal by Meilke to use quota prices as measures of comparative advantage. We evaluate the quota price approach and other proposed methods, from a Hayekian and Coasean market process perspective. We conclude that quota prices offer an economically justifiable indicator of provincial comparative advantage. We develop an individual‐level general equilibrium model of quota exchange to illustrate the informational content of quota prices as indicators of comparative advantage. We also discuss potential practical challenges of using quota prices as indicators of comparative advantage.     

Kantian Equilibrium

Consider a game whose strategies are "contributions". A strategy profile is a Kantian equilibrium if  no  player would like  all  players to alter their contributions by the  same multiplicative factor.  Kantian equilibria are Pareto efficient. We characterize the allocation rules on several domains of environments that can be implemented as Kantian equilibria. The concept unifies the  proportional solution  on production economies and the  linear cost-share equilibrium  on public-good economies. We study Kantian equilibrium in the prisoner's dilemma, in a voting problem, and in a political economy where redistribution is the issue. The Kantian dictum engenders considerable but not unqualified cooperation.     

从反事实条件句到绿蓝悖论——纳尔逊·古德曼科学认识论思想管窥

在古德曼看来，像“反事实”、“倾向性”以及“可能性”之类的概念都无法得到显明可见的经验事实的证实和支持，因此都无法合理地把它们作为与实证科学的基本原则相容的科学概念来使用。另一方面，古德曼认为在归纳推理中出现绿蓝悖论的原因在于我们把命题之间的“证实”关系仅仅看作是证据与假设这两个方面之间的关系，而忽略了包括“过去实际进行过的预测及其结果的记录”在内的大量背景知识对证实关系的作用。实际上，导致绿蓝悖论的根本原因在于，我们迄今为止观察到的宝石都是绿的，并不能保证我们随后观察到的宝石也是绿的，我们观察到的下一块宝石也完全有可能是蓝的（或别的某种颜色）。因此，古德曼实际上没有也不可能真正消除“绿蓝悖论”，这是由归纳推理不同于演绎推理的本性所决定的。     

预约定价制度适用于我国的成本悖论解析

实行预约定价制度可以较好地解决转让定价滥用和国际双重征税或不征税问题,提高税务部门工作效率。为了调查预约定价制度在我国的可行性,在对预约定价制度实行的基于信息、客体、国际税收合作、转让定价调整方法和事后监控的成本悖论进行具体分析的基础上,得出预约定价制度必须与传统的事后税收监管相结合,才能有效解决转让定价问题的结论。     

IT生产率悖论对我国乡镇企业信息化建设的启示

随着我国农业信息化进程的不断推进，乡镇企业目前正面临着由信息技术所引起的成功诱惑和失败困惑，乡镇企业实施信息化的效果越来越受到各方面的关注。“IT生产率悖论”是探讨信息技术投入效果的研究理论之一，文章回顾和总结了“IT生产率悖论”相关研究的历程和各阶段的一些成果，并结合我国乡镇企业具体情况，探讨了“IT生产率悖论”的研究对于我国乡镇企业信息化的启示。     

Pricing assets with stochastic cash-flow growth

We model the time series behavior of dividend growth rates, as well as the profitability rate, with a variety of autoregressive moving-average processes, and use the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to derive the appropriate discount rate. One of the most important implications of this research is that the rate of return beta changes with the time to maturity of the expected cash flow, and the degree of mean reversion displayed by the growth rate. We explore the consequences of this observation for three different strands of the literature. The first is for the value premium anomaly, the second for stock valuation and learning about long-run profitability, and the third is for the St. Petersburg paradox. One of the most surprising results is that the CAPM implies a higher rate of return beta for value stocks than growth stocks. Therefore, value stocks must have higher expected returns, and this is what is required theoretically in order to explain the well-known value premium anomaly.     

Determinants of inward investment in the UK,a panel analysis

This paper develops an inter-industry model of inward investment, using a fixed effects approach. This demonstrates that when inward investment is investigated in such a framework, previous findings, relating to the specification of measures of location advantage and ownership advantages no longer hold. This also shows that there are some industries that have attracted significant inward investment over time, and continue to do so, while others are noticeably less successful. Reasons for this, and potential policy measures are briefly discussed.