我国高新技术产业上市公司的流动性提升及其对投资者的影响

高新技术产业上市公司经营风险性特征明显,需要提升二级市场流动性以稀释风险。本文考察高新技术产业上市公司资本公积金转增股本的现象,结合高频分笔数据来研究公司股价被"拆低"以后,这类公司股票是否在流动性方面有所变化?结果发现,高新技术产业公司股价"拆低"使得二级市场的流动性得到显著提升;而那些未发生股价"拆低"的配对样本在事件前后,流动性未发生明显差异。最后,通过回归发现流动性增加虽然在一定程度上可以被一些短期指标所解释,但是显著的截距项说明分拆依然会带来流动性的明显提升。流动性提升将扩大高新技术产业上市公司的投资者基础,提升其企业市场价值。     

CURRENCY CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF POST‐LIBERALIZATION TURKEY

This article investigates the determinants of currency crises in Turkey. It analyzes the two major currency crises of 1994 and 2000–2001 in the light of the existing theoretical models. The present study uses logit, probit, and limited dependent models to explain the currency crises in the post–capital account liberalization era. The results obtained from the three approaches are generally consistent and the coefficients obtained for the explanatory variables generally have the same sign. The findings suggest that the currency crises in Turkey are associated with global liquidity conditions, fiscal imbalances, capital outflows, and banking sector weaknesses.     

变量序别化在信用评分模型中的应用研究

本文通过将连续数值变量进行序别化转换赋值,并基于这些变量建立Log- it信用评分模型,通过使用统计量AUC值与条件熵比率来检验序别化转换前后所建立回归模型的违约预测力。结果发现,连续数值变量经序别化转换后可提高模型的违约预测力及其韧性。     

Demand choices of high-tech industry for logistics service providers—an empirical case of an offshore science park in Taiwan

This study presents a methodological framework for analyzing factors that influence market share of third-party logistics (TPL) in high-tech industry. An emerging science park located in Southern Taiwan was chosen as the empirical case for the study. Confirmatory factor analysis was first conducted to examine the reliability and validity of the census data (136 outsourcing cases from 68 high-tech manufacturers). This was followed by calibrations of a binary logit model that examines the demand choices of the manufacturers in selecting two types of TPLs, express and forwarder. Results indicate that the strongest determinant of industrial demand choices is the service performance of the TPL, followed by service cost, and added value. In improving these service factors, the market share effect of express-based TPL is found to be slightly greater than that of forwarder-based. The analysis indicates that high-tech manufacturers with larger annual sales or smaller shipments favor express services over forwarding services.     

中国风险投资机构联合投资动机的影响因素研究

运用中国风险投资市场5316条风险投资数据,以欧美国家市场联合投资的动机为参考,结合中国的法律、政策、文化环境研究中国风险投资机构参与联合投资动机的影响因素。结果发现,融资规模大、外资机构参与以及向高新技术企业投资,出于规避风险和整合资源的考虑较倾向于采用联合投资方式;获利期阶段项目的投资,则出于IPO等因素考虑更倾向于联合投资。这表明中国风险投资市场联合投资的动机与欧美国家相比,会受到制度和市场环境的影响而有所差异。     

中国海洋经济周期波动分析

在 “一带一路” 倡议下,中国海洋经济对外开放程度和对外依赖程度日益增长。同时,由于受不同层面的冲击影响,海洋经济的发展产生了不确定性进而引致了潜在的经济周期性增长风险。因此,对海洋经济运行的周期波动以及发展态势进行监测与预判,有利于海洋经济保持于稳健的增长路径之上。基于增长率指标构建的中国海洋经济扩散指数和合成指数的实证,研究结论表明: ①所构造的海洋经济扩散指数和合成指数具有较高的预测预判效果,先行指数、同步指数、滞后指数之间的变动存在合理的时差关系;②中国海洋经济存在显著的短周期性波动。进一步的研究发现,由于宏观政策调控和外部经济环境的显著性影响,海洋经济周期与中国宏观经济周期呈现出协动性特征。     

文化差异与跨国公司在华投资的独资化倾向

近年来,在华投资的跨国公司呈现出日益显著的独资化倾向。本文在交易成本理论的基础上分析了跨国公司母国与我国的文化差异对其进入模式的影响。在对两者关系提出理论假设后,以2004年我国外商投资企业销售收入排名前500名的企业为样本,以文化距离和心理距离为解释变量,建立logit模型进行实证分析。研究结果表明,跨国公司母国与我国的文化距离越大,其在华投资越倾向于合资经营,而跨国公司母国与我国的心理距离越大,其在华投资越倾向于独资经营。     

A comparison of results of three statistical methods to understand the determinants of festival participants’ expenditures

The aim of the research reported upon in this study is to examine the impact of visitors’ socio-demographic and festival experience-related variables on expenditure levels and patterns of visits to festivals. Three statistical models including logit, OLS (ordinary least square) and Tobit models are employed to identify and examine the differences or similarities in results from three different approaches. A comparison of the three approaches using cross-section survey data generated differences in model fit. In addition, it was found that the set of independent variables which were significant in estimating festival visitors’ expenditures varied between the three models. As such the findings of this study suggest a singular statistical approach may be inferior to multiple ones in gaining a full understanding of the determinants of festival participants’ expenditure.     

Sequential choice behavior: Going on vacation and type of destination

The literature of destination choice has so far studied multi-stage decision making processes that are more representative of the general choice behavior of tourists (e.g. going on vacation, going abroad, and destination country). Alternatively, this study proposes a multi-stage decision process to the choice of tourist destination types (going on vacation, coastal character, and urban character of the destination) as these choice sets are more idiosyncratic to tourists who prefer a specific type of tourist destination (e.g. Spain with clear coastal and inland variations). In order to test this multi-stage choice process as well as the sequential order of both decisions, coastal character and urban character, the current study analyses decision processes vs. different hierarchical multi-stage processes (going on vacation and coastal character preceding urban character; and going on vacation and urban character preceding coastal character). The empirical findings support the existence of a multi-stage choice process where coastal character precedes the urban character destination choice. The main implication of these findings is that, given the limited human analytical capability, a hierarchical choice process can be useful to handle the information overload and the complexity inherent to the destination type choice.     

我国产学研协同创新影响因素研究——基于Ordered Logit模型实证分析

文章通过对全国231家产学研协同创新主要参与主体的问卷调查,针对现阶段我国产学研协同创新发展特点,对其影响因素进行实证分析,运用Ordered Logit预测模型估计了六个影响因素对现阶段产学研协同创新发展问题的影响程度。研究显示,因素"政策法规的支持程度"、"知识产权保护和科技成果转化"、"多赢的合作利益分配机制"和"产学研协同创新融资渠道完善"对我国产学研协同创新发展面临的主要问题有显著影响;因素"科技中介机构服务能力提升"对"创新主体发展需求问题"的影响并不显著。