Using stated response choice data to enrich revealed preference discrete choice models

There is growing interest in exploring the view that both revealed preference (RP) and stated preference (SP) data have useful information and that their integration will enrich the overall explanatory power of RP choice models. These two types of data have been independently used in the estimation of a wide variety of discrete choice applications in marketing. In order to combine the two data sources, each with independent choice outcomes, allowance must be made for their different scaling properties. The approach uses a full information maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the hierarchical logit form to obtain suitable scaling parameters to make one or more data sets comparable. We illustrate the advantages of the dual data strategy by comparing the results with those obtained from models estimated independently with RP and SP data. Data collected as part of a study of high speed rail is used to estimate a set of illustrative mode choice models.     

Closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model via polynomial expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn’t yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. JEL Classification C6 · C8 · M3     

出口、企业生产率与企业创新

本文用2007年中国企业数据为样本,利用Logit模型分析了以全要素生产率为代表的企业异质性以及出口对企业创新的影响。得出如下结论:①全要素生产率和出口对企业的创新倾向具有显著的正效应。②企业创新倾向呈现地理位置和所有制类型差异。     

Exploring cruise ship passenger spending patterns in two Uruguayan ports of call

The cruise industry has become a significant component of the Uruguayan tourism economy in the last few years. The present study aims to provide a better understanding of the cruise industry by considering the expenditure of cruise ship passengers disembarking at the ports of call of Montevideo and Punta del Este as a key variable in the economic analysis of the costs and benefits. We estimate two cross-sectional regression models for cruise passenger expenditures, and show that the size of the group the visitors travel with and visitor mobility within the country are the most important variables to explain individual expenditure behaviour. We also include some management recommendations that policy-makers could implement in order to improve the economic profits from cruise ship tourism.     

山东上市公司财务危机预警研究

以1998年ST制度实施后山东省被ST的上市公司为研究对象,配以上市时间相同或相近的省内财务健康公司做控制样本,选取财务指标和非财务指标通过二元Logit回归建立了预测准确率高的模型,体现盈利能力的总资产收益率预测效果最显著。     

农地经营权流转的农户融资诉求效应研究 ——基于中国家庭调查数据的实证分析

研究目的：基于农户潜在融资需求与渠道偏好视角研究农村土地经营权流转的农户融资诉求效应。研究方法：二元及排序Logit模型。研究结果：（1）在农户潜在融资需求方面,农村土地经营权流转行为对农户潜在融资需求促进作用明显。流转规模越大,农户潜在融资需求越高;流转合同签订,农村土地经营权流转的稳定性和农地可抵押性增强,农户潜在融资需求越高。（2）在融资渠道偏好方面,流转后农户沿着“非正规渠道—非正规与正规两者兼有—正规渠道”的偏好路径转变,逐步增加对于正规渠道的偏好。流转规模扩大及流转合同的签订会显著提升农户对正规渠道的偏好。研究结论：农村土地经营权流转会引致农户产生融资诉求效应,增加农户潜在融资需求,促使农户融资渠道向正规化转变。     

耕地重金属污染治理生态补偿政策选择与组合研究

研究目的:考察不同规模农户对生态补偿多元政策的偏好及政策间的相互作用,以期为增强耕地重金属污染生态补偿政策的实施效果和构建污染治理长效补偿机制提供参考。研究方法:Mixed Logit模型。研究结果:(1)农户对各类生态补偿政策的偏好程度受经营规模影响显著,规模户偏好技术指导、产量保险和分级收购政策,目前试点的现金补贴政策对其激励不足;(2)技术补偿与资金补偿政策呈显著互补性,当技术补偿缺失时,市场化的分级收购补偿政策激励效果将被弱化。研究结论:耕地重金属污染治理生态补偿需要探索针对性治理技术指导、产量保险、分级收购等新政策,同时对补偿政策进行合理组合。     

家庭个体特征对居民借款行为的影响——来自中国家庭的经验证据

金融市场对于支持和鼓励家庭借款进而刺激家庭消费起着愈发重要的作用。作为家庭消费金融意识的重要体现,居民借款行为正在受到更多的关注。本文认为居民家庭借款行为包含两层含义:1.家庭是否有借款;2.家庭借款渠道的选择。利用CFPS调查项目中京沪粤三省市家庭借款行为的微观数据,本文运用Logit模型和Probit模型对影响居民家庭借款行为的家庭个体特征进行了实证分析,解析了不同家庭个体特征对借款行为的影响情况,并得出有关结论与启示。     

国有商业银行体系脆弱性的实证分析和政策建议

银行体系的脆弱性是事关一国金融发展和金融安全的重要课题.本文以我国国有商业银行体系脆弱性问题为研究对象,在理论分析的基础上运用Logit模型对影响国有商业银行经营稳健性的宏、微观因素进行实证检验,得出以下结论:(1)宏观经济因素对国有商业银行体系脆弱性的影响比微观因素显著;(2)宏微观因素间具有一定的互补性.在实证分析的基础上,本文就如何有效控制我国国有商业银行体系的脆弱性提出相应的政策建议,包括:保持适度经济增长、加快国有商业银行改革步伐、制定科学的货币政策和完善金融监管体制等措施.     

中国农业企业汇率风险应对行为的实证研究——基于企业竞争力视角

本文提出了一个涉外企业汇率风险应对行为的分析框架,并利用352家涉外农业企业调查数据与多元Logit模型,从企业竞争力视角实证检验中国农业企业汇率风险应对行为的影响因素。研究发现,企业竞争力对中国农业企业避险策略选择至关重要,且表征企业竞争力的诸多变量对汇率风险应对行为的影响各不相同:融资能力越强、在技术方面越有优势的农业企业越倾向于使用运营策略规避汇率风险,而国际化程度越高的农业企业越倾向于使用金融衍生工具管理汇率风险;同时,农业企业汇率风险应对行为存在较为明显的地区差异。在此基础上,本文提出中国涉外农业企业应对汇率风险、扩大出口的若干政策建议。