中国股市风格转换投资盈利性测度

为了验证中国股市是否存在小盘股和大盘股择时投资并具预测价值,通过选取2005年3月至2013年7月巨潮小盘指数和巨潮大盘指数月度数据和周数据,采用logit分类选择模型,分别估计了一元和二元分类模型,并比较预测效果。经研究表明:国内风格转换非常频繁,一元模型预测效果优于二元模型,在考虑交易成本的情形下,月度数据经调整转换策略以便降低转换频率,证明存在超额收益;但周数据的风格转换收益锐减,低于小盘股买入即持有策略,甚至在完美预期下,风格转换策略绩效也不如持续持有小盘股。因此,可以认为国内投资存在结构性因素,导致投资者偏爱小盘股。     

Factors Affecting Malaysian Household Purchase Decisions of Food-Away-from-Home

Abstract

The dichotomous-choice Logit model is applied on data from the Malaysian Household Expenditure Survey (1998/99) to examine household purchase decisions of food-away-from-home (FAFH). Results indicate that younger, higher educated, wealthier, smaller-sized families, urban residents, or Malay and Chinese households have a significantly higher likelihood to purchase FAFH, ceteris paribus. In addition, gender does not impact FAFH purchase decisions in a statistically significant manner. Based on these findings, several observations are noted to provide policymakers and food industry analysts with a better understanding of the habits and attitudes of Malaysian households visa-vis FAFH.     

“文化适应”对消费者购买行为的影响

文化是影响消费者购买行为的重要因素。本文从“文化适应”的角度研究消费者购买行为，选取语言、民族认同、文化认同以及新环境中居住时间为指标，通过Logit模型对美国西班牙裔和亚裔的四个少数民族购买民族蔬菜的行为进行了验证。结果表明，“文化适应”的语言、民族认同和文化认同指标均显著影响少数民族消费者的购买行为，其中民族认同对购买行为具有显著正影响，语言和文化认同对购买行为具有显著负影响，而在新环境中居住时间指标的影响并不显著。在此基础上，针对如何理解多民族消费者的购买行为并满足其购买需求，本文从语言、居住环境、民族认同和消费习惯等方面给出了相应的对策建议。     

Corporate governance,tourism growth and firm performance: Evidence from publicly listed tourism firms in five Middle Eastern countries

This study explores the under-researched relationship between corporate governance and firm performance in tourism companies. We employ instrumental variable modelling using 2SLS for publicly listed firms in five countries in the Middle East. Board independence is found to be positively related to firm performance and stock performance, suggesting that having independent directors among board members will improve overall firm performance. Board size shows opposing results: large boards enhance firm profitability; however, small boards exhibit more efficient stock performance. Finally, we support the tourism-led-growth hypothesis in our selected sample. These findings have empirical implications for policy makers, governments and academics.     

以往经验会影响OFDI企业序贯投资的#br# 区位选择吗*——来自中国工业企业的证据

本文突破传统的静态分析方法,首次从动态序贯视角考察以往经验对中国对外直接投资（OFDI）企业区位选择的影响。通过区分序贯投资的两种情形与细分以往经验的不同来源,并采用优化区位研究的条件Logit模型对2000-2010年中国OFDI企业的匹配数据进行检验,结果发现：OFDI企业会根据其他企业的投资经验进行序贯性的市场选择与跟随,且这种“羊群效应”在单次投资企业中尤为显著;对多次投资企业来说,各类投资经验对其区位选择的影响从大到小依次为：自身投资经验大于其他企业经验,其中相同市场经验大于相似市场经验,同行业经验大于不同行业经验。     

Business group affiliation and SMEs’ international sales intensity and diversification: A multi-country study

This study examines the impact of business group (BG) affiliation on international sales intensity and diversification in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by using a multi-country sample of over 13,000 SMEs from 34 European countries. Drawing on the revised Uppsala internationalization model and network theory, this paper suggests that the effects of BG affiliation on international sales intensity and diversification depend on the geographical dispersion of the BG network ties, the size and the age of the firm, and the institutional support in the home country. Thus, we find that interfirm networks in the form of BGs are a double-edged sword that can have both favorable and unfavorable consequences for international sales, depending on the geographical dispersion of the BG’s ties. In addition, the results reveal that BG affiliation is more beneficial for smaller SMEs and SMEs in countries with lower institutional support that are more dependent on the network resources embedded within BG networks.     

转型经济国家汇率制度选择对金融稳定的影响——基于Probit模型和Logit模型的测算

文章以26个转型经济国家为样本建立Probit模型和Logit模型,将金融危机发生概率与本国的汇率制度进行实证分析。模型稳定,定量变量、固定变量和控制变量都比较显著,尤其是文章考察的重点——2个固定变量。结果表明,同时期在三种汇率制度类型中,固定汇率制度发生金融危机的概率最小。因此转型经济国家当前应该选择固定汇率制度,稳定国内金融环境。     

在线广告发布的位置模式对消费者品牌选择影响的仿真研究

在线广告发布的位置模式的选择要考虑在预算约束的情形下实现投资回报最大化，对于厂商在线营销具有重要意义。文章以消费者低程度介入的快速消费品为研究对象，使用消费者品牌选择研究中常用的多项Logit模型就在线广告发布的位置模式对消费者选择的影响进行了仿真研究。在线广告发布的位置模式主要分为水平式、上升式、下降式和交替式四种模式。研究发现，上升式的位置模式发布广告对消费者的品牌选择效果最好，水平式次之，交叉式第三，下降式最差。     

Integrating the Dirichlet-multinomial and multinomial logit models of brand choice

This paper discusses the interpretative benefits that arise from merging the Dirichlet-multinomial (DM) model as a loyalty variable in the multinomial logit (MNL) model of brand choice. The estimated parameters of this hybrid model compare favorably to those of a pure DM model (with no marketing mix variables) as well as those of a standard MNL model with an exponentially smoothed loyalty measure. The hybrid model offers an index of consumer heterogeneity and estimates of each brand's preference share, adjusted for the effects of price and promotional activities. We illustrate the unique interpretations offered by these parameters across four different product categories, showing how changes in heterogeneity (across categories or model specifications) are closely related to changes in the overall impact of marketing mix variables.The author is grateful to Bruce Hardie, Barbara Kahn, Jim Lattin, Len Lodish, Bob Meyer, and Don Morrison for their comments and suggestions. He appreciates the support of Doug Honnold and Information Resources, Inc., for providing the data and computational facilities used in this paper.     

How do consumers switch between close substitutes when price variation is small? The case of cigarette types

Past empirical studies report ambiguous results regarding the magnitude and significance of substitution between different types of smoking tobacco. Since all types of tobacco contain nicotine this is quite surprising. Using a 20-year rotating panel data set of Norwegian households and a multinomial logit model, we find evidence that consumers switch between tobacco types: first, estimated price effects on choice probabilities have mostly expected signs, albeit their statistical significance vary across different metrics, second, household characteristics affect tobacco composition significantly. These findings suggest that consumers’ choices are ‘locked’ when the relative price variation is small, as has been the case in most of the data period, but that larger changes could induce large-scale switching between tobacco types. Our conjecture is that there is a latent potential for switching, which will become manifest if prices change sufficiently. Similar considerations are likely to have relevance for other close substitutes.