浙江省农户获得贷款影响因素的实证分析

利用317份浙江农户调查数据,采用二元Logit模型研究了影响农户是否获得贷款(贷款意愿)的因素。发现城郊农户更倾向于贷款;年龄越大,农户越不倾向于贷款;农业收入越多,越倾向于贷款;参加合作社的农户比不参加合作社的农户更倾向于贷款。从影响程度看,农业收入对农户是否贷款决策的影响大于年龄的影响。性别,教育年限,是否外出打工,劳动力数量,学生人数,总收入,总面积,主要收入来源是否为农业等变量系数不显著。     

农业绿色发展模式的农业保险需求引致效应——基于荔枝种植户的经验分析

目的 研究农业绿色发展模式引致的农业风险规避需求及其特点,提出完善和推广农业保险、推进农业绿色发展的政策启示。方法 文章将农户农业保险需求分为5个等级,以采用生物防控和非化学生长调节技术来衡量农业绿色发展模式,然后构建排序Logit模型,利用2018—2019年国家荔枝龙眼产业技术体系的调查数据证明农业绿色发展模式和农业保险需求之间引致效应,并借助OLS、2SLS、LIML和分位数回归法检验了模型的稳健性。结果 （1）排序模型中农业绿色发展模式的系数均在1%的显著性水平上显著,说明农户的农业绿色发展模式会引致显著的农业保险需求,年龄、种植经验、合作组织、种植规模的系数也显著不为0,体现出种植规模较大、种植时间较长、参加合作组织的非老年人农户对农业保险需求影响较明显;（2）0.50分位数回归的农业绿色发展模式系数值最大,表明农业绿色发展模式引致的农业保险需求往往处于中等水平。结论 政府政策应充分考虑和满足农户农业绿色发展模式中的风险规避需求,才能深入推进农业绿色发展;而促进农业绿色发展的农业保险费率标准与推广策略也需要充分考虑农户种植规模、种植经验、合作组织、农户年龄和中等水平的农业保险需求等因素。     

A Bayesian survey technique for rare subjects

We propose a methodology to draw a representative sample from a population with a small fraction of potential customers for a certain product or a service. The objective is to increase the expected number of potential customers in a sample of fixed size representing the whole population. The method also provides a useful way of incorporating subjective judgement and uncertainty into the sampling plan. This approach has produced very satisfactory results for rare event problems in a number of telecommunications applications.     

农村劳动力跨省流动行为的影响因素分析

利用2005年农村流动劳动力调查数据,运用Logit模型,考察了影响我国农村劳动力跨省流动的因素。研究结果表明,已婚的农村劳动力更倾向于跨省流动,而受教育程度对跨省流动概率的影响呈倒U型,即受教育程度较低和受教育程度较高者均倾向于省内流动而不是跨省流动;农村劳动力的家庭人均非汇款收入越高,其越倾向于跨省流动;东部沿海地区的农村劳动力更倾向于省内流动,而中、西部地区的农村劳动力更倾向于跨省流动。因此,要使农村劳动力获得更好的跨省就业机会,以提高农村家庭收入和有效地减少贫困人口,必须提高农村地区尤其是中、西部农村地区人口的教育水平,增加他们的人力资本,并加强对农村低收入家庭劳动力转移的支持,减少其远距离外出打工的现金约束。     

Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections

Most election forecasting research to date has been conducted in the context of single-round elections. However, more than 40 countries in the world employ a two-stage process, where actual voting data are available between the first and the second rounds to help politicians understand their position in relation to each other and to voter preferences and to help them predict the final outcome of the election. In this study we take advantage of the theoretical foundation on voter behavior from the political science literature and the recent methodological advances in choice modeling to develop a Nested Logit Factor Model of voter choice which we use to predict the final outcome of two stage elections and gain insights about the underlying political landscape. We apply the proposed model to data from the first stage and predict the final outcome of two stage elections based on the inferences made from the first stage results. We demonstrate how our proposed model can help politicians understand their competitive position immediately after the first round of actual voting and test its predictive accuracy in the run-off election across 11 different state governorship elections.     

轨道交通系统票务清分算法的研究

随着城市轨道交通的不断发展，同一轨道交通网络中的线路将会由不同的运营商来经营，运营商之间收益的合理分配是城市轨道交通亟待解决的问题。在对实现轨道交通票务清分算法进行分析的基础上，提出有效路径算法。通过计算出OD问的有效路径和不同运营商的线路比例，对收益进行分配，并用清分算例进行实际应用说明。     

Comparing early warning systems for banking crises

Despite the extensive literature on prediction of banking crises by Early Warning Systems (EWSs), their practical use by policy makers is limited, even in the international financial institutions. This is a paradox since the changing nature of banking risks as more economies liberalise and develop their financial systems, as well as ongoing innovation, makes the use of EWS for informing policies aimed at preventing crises more necessary than ever. In this context, we assess the logit and signal extraction EWS for banking crises on a comprehensive common dataset. We suggest that logit is the most appropriate approach for global EWS and signal extraction for country-specific EWS. Furthermore, it is important to consider the policy maker's objectives when designing predictive models and setting related thresholds since there is a sharp trade-off between correctly calling crises and false alarms.     

Homogeneous service with heterogeneous products: Relationships among airline ticket fares and purchase fences

A fare table derived from homogeneous service is essential for revenue management applications in the airline industry. Restrictions or so-called fences are usually regarded as a useful tool to differentiate homogeneous seat service. Nevertheless, the relationships among fares and fences are not yet clear. This study aims to investigate passengers’ preferences on the choice of ticket alternatives describing by fares and fences and using Taiwan domestic air travel as an example. Regarding the attributes that an airline ticket may be attached such as departure time, booking time, ticket validity, changing fee, refund and fare, stated preference questionnaires are developed with multiple hypothetical scenarios for respondents to select in the experiment. 398 valid samples are collected for the logit model analysis. With the use of mixed logit model to accommodate both passengers’ heterogeneity and also the issue of relevant alternatives in the experiment, the results show statistical significance of all applied attributes with correct signs. In addition, passengers possess different attitudes on the fence of booking time, ticket validity, changing fee, and fare. Willingness-to-pay of each fence is further calculated to ultimately generate a fare table based on the combination of fences for practice use.     

An empirical analysis of online shopping adoption in Beijing,China

The Internet is a global communication medium that is increasingly being used worldwide as an innovative tool for marketing goods and services. At the end of 2010, Internet users in China reached 420 million. However, online shopping in China is not widely practiced and organisations investing in B2C online shopping need to understand the factors that affect Chinese consumers′ online buying behaviour. This research develops a theoretical research model as a framework to identify the key decision factors influencing Chinese consumers′ to shop, or not to shop online. A self-administered questionnaire was used to gather information from 435 respondents in Beijing, China. The empirical analysis identifies and ranks seven important decision factors: perceived risk, consumer resources, service quality, subjective norms, product variety, convenience, and website factors. All of these decision factors impact on Chinese consumers′ adoption of online shopping. Moreover, managerial implications and recommendations are also presented.