Environmental criteria in the public purchases above the EU threshold values by three Nordic countries: 2003 and 2005

Green Public Procurement (GPP) has been considered as an important policy instrument in the context of sustainable consumption and production. The state and progress of GPP has earlier been measured by questionnaires and interviews, both methods being based on the assessment by the purchaser, and questionnaires having low response rates. Recently, a new method was developed, analyzing the existence of environmental criteria in the calls for tenders. However, the studies have dealt neither with the progress in GPP, nor the statistical evidence of differences between countries. Our aim was to analyze more thoroughly whether the differences in the proportions of ‘green’ calls for tenders between the three Nordic countries, Denmark, Finland and Sweden, in 2003 and 2005 were real, and whether there had occurred any progress between the years concerned. The paper also presents the ‘GPP-record’ method, which enables more valid measurement of the environmental soundness of public purchasing. The statistical analyses were done using logit models with country, year and product group as the explanatory factors. It proved to be relevant to take into account the variation that occurred from the random existence of product groups in the samples of calls for tender. There were less environmental criteria in the calls for tenders in Finland than in Denmark and Sweden in 2003, but in 2005 no significant difference between Finland and Denmark was observed. Both Finland and Sweden saw progress in this area between 2003 and 2005.     

Estimating financial distress likelihood

This study develops an ex-ante model for estimating financial distress likelihood (FDL), and contributes to the literature by presenting a financially-based definition of distress that is independent of its legal consequences, a theoretically supported model for the FDL, and an appropriate methodology that uses panel data to eliminate the unobservable heterogeneity. The model is then estimated cross-sectionally to obtain an indicator of the likelihood of financial distress that incorporates the specificity of each company. In doing so, this study provides a well-specified model that is stable in terms of magnitude, sign and significance of the coefficients and, more importantly, that yields a measure of the FDL that is more robust to time and the international context than the estimates of FDL that are based on seminal models. This measure could be appropriate for use in future research that deals with FDL, such as capital structure and the prevention of financial distress.     

跨国银行在华投资的省域选择

作为中国最活跃的金融机构之一,外资银行在大陆的投资活动受到各省级政府的关注。在确立跨国银行进入大陆省级区域基本理论框架的基础上,文章利用1996年初至2006年7月底在华265家外资银行机构的最新数据,运用条件Logit离散选择模型对跨国银行在华投资区域决定因子进行实证分析,结果显示:市场需求因素和区域金融基础设施因素对外资银行有显著的吸引力,而区域政策环境因素和经营成本因素则无显著影响。各省域招商外资银行的工作重点应立足发展本地经济、营造外资集聚、完善金融市场、提升人力资源管理水平和做好外资银行机构的服务等工作,而非一味地提供种种优惠。     

On Liu estimators for the logit regression model

This paper introduces a shrinkage estimator for the logit model which is a generalization of the estimator proposed by Liu (1993) for the linear regression. This new estimation method is suggested since the mean squared error (MSE) of the commonly used maximum likelihood (ML) method becomes inflated when the explanatory variables of the regression model are highly correlated. Using MSE, the optimal value of the shrinkage parameter is derived and some methods of estimating it are proposed. It is shown by means of Monte Carlo simulations that the estimated MSE and mean absolute error (MAE) are lower for the proposed Liu estimator than those of the ML in the presence of multicollinearity. Finally the benefit of the Lie estimator is shown in an empirical application where different economic factors are used to explain the probability that municipalities have net increase of inhabitants.     

Payment shock and mortgage performance

The effect of payment shocks on subprime hybrid ARM mortgage prepayment and delinquency is examined. Using loan level data from private label securities, we modeled the effects of payment shocks on mortgage performance. Our study provided interesting empirical results in three main areas: First, we addressed the effect of payment shocks on subsequent mortgage delinquency. Second, we studied how the effect of payment shocks varies and decays over time. Third, we disentangled the impact of payment shocks based on the reason for the shocks: payment shock due to the expiration of a teaser rate (i.e. “teaser shock”) versus the payment shock due to index rate changes at the time of reset (i.e. “market rate shock”).We find that the effect of payment shock on loan performance varies by the delinquency status of the loan at the time of the shock. That is, the payment shock has the most significant effect on “current” loans rather than loans already in delinquency. Also of note, we find that the effect of a payment shock decays only gradually over time. We find that the impact of “teaser shocks” and “market rate shocks” on mortgage performance do not differ substantially, even though teaser shocks may be somewhat more predictable than market rate shocks. This suggests that either subprime ARM borrowers did not fully understand the product and the extent of the shock at the first reset date or that financially strapped borrowers used the product to speculate and were caught by the teaser shock when they were unable to refinance or sell (i.e. “flip”) their properties .The study suggests that any modification plan designed to eliminate potential payment shocks or to otherwise lower payments will be most effective for loans that are currently performing rather than loans that are already in delinquency.     

Reverse discrete choice models

We derive the cost minimization counterpart to the usual utility maximization version of the multinomial logit (MNL) model. Equivalently, our model considers the reverse of the usual error structure in the maximization problem. The resulting model remains tractable but does not suffer from the IIA property of the MNL. Our technique also provides a variant on the standard CES model (that does not exhibit IIA either). We argue that these models are useful alternatives to the standard ones, and compare their predictions for firm pricing. We also discuss the properties of other reverse models.     

基于叙述性偏好法的理财产品选择偏好研究--以湖南地区为例

论文针对客户理财产品选择的偏好进行研究。为深入分析客户的理财行为,采用叙述性偏好法（Stated Preference）进行问卷设计,同时运用多项罗吉特（Multinomial logit）及巢式罗吉特（Nested logit）计量模型建立消费者理财偏好选择模式,并以湖南地区为例,分析该地区客户对于理财商品的偏好,并研究客户群体的理财产品选择行为模式,以期为银行的理财产品开发和监管部门的管理提供一定参考。     

A dynamic homotopy interpretation of the logistic quantal response equilibrium correspondence

This paper uses properties of the logistic quantal response equilibrium correspondence to compute Nash equilibria in finite games. It is shown that branches of the correspondence may be numerically traversed efficiently and securely. The method can be implemented on a multicomputer, allowing for application to large games. The path followed by the method has an interpretation analogous to that of Harsanyi and Selten's Tracing Proecdure. As an application, it is shown that the principal branch of any quantal response equilibrium correspondence satisfying a monotonicity property converges to the risk-dominant equilibrium in 2 × 2 games.     

Exploring radio frequency identification technology's application in international distribution centers and adoption rate forecasting

Radio Frequency Identification Technology's (RFID) application in the global supply chain has seen increased attention, and international distribution centers (IDC) are now playing a more crucial role in the global supply chain operation. This paper adopts structure equation modeling (SEM) to investigate the impact of three factors mainly based on the technology acceptance model (TAM): perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, and the social norm on the use intention of an IDC. Empirical results indicate that a revised TAM could explain the RFID acceptance behavior. Perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness, and the social norm are demonstrated to have an effect on RFID acceptance intention. The choice of RFID adoption is also impacted by the supply chain's stakeholders. Factors that affect the adoption intention of an IDC thus include customers and partners' request, government policy, and competitors that have already adopted RFID. Furthermore, the study adopts the binary Logit model based on the stated preference method's data to predict the possible adoption rate of the RFID system in the adoption intention of an IDC. This empirical study shows that significant statistical determinants influencing RFID acceptance are: system purchasing fixed cost, variable cost, and perceived usefulness. Our model also predicts that the penetration of RFID application in Taiwan's international distribution centers could hit the 25% adoption rate. The study provides several managerial implications and suggests future research directions.     

我国金融监管组织架构优化路径选择的实证分析

统一监管组织架构已成为金融监管组织架构变迁的一种趋势,但由于各国金融业的发展程度和经营环境不同,金融监管组织架构优化的路径选择也就有差异。影响金融监管组织架构变迁的因素有体制因素、金融因素和治理因素。选取33个代表性国家样本,构建有序Logit模型对影响金融监管组织架构变迁的因素进行实证分析,并运用有序蚴模型对中国金融监管组织架构进行分析,结果表明,目前中国分业监管组织架构是合适的,随著中国金融业的发展和混业经营的深入,中国应首先提高治理水平,然后逐渐整合金融监管机构,最终建立统一监管组织架构。