Rationality of weather predictions and insurance purchases: testing the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies

Deviations from the rational behaviour assumed in many economic models have been found in a variety of settings. Two such deviations, the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies have been found in lab settings, as well as in consequential real-world decisions. Previous economic experiments have shown that the behaviour of professionals can differ from that of the general population. In this paper, we use data from two experiments conducted with a particular group of professionals who make yearly high-stakes decisions in the face of uncertain weather and market conditions: agricultural producers. In the experiments, participants were asked to make predictions about the coming year’s weather and market conditions and make decisions in a familiar decision context. Results indicate evidence of the gambler’s fallacy, such that participants were less likely to predict a good outcome if the previous outcome(s) were good. We also observe that participants were more likely to gamble if a previous gamble was successful, but find no impact on two successful gambles. These combined results indicate that even professionals with many years of experience can exhibit behaviours that deviate from those assumed by classical models.     

Evolution of indigenous tourism among the Lacandon of Chiapas: an application of Weaver’s model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, Weaver’s six-stage indigenous tourism model is applied to the Lacandon Maya (Hach Winik) of Chiapas, Mexico. Based on a comprehensive review of the anthropological and historical literature on this indigenous group, combined with longitudinal ethnographic and collaborative research performed with tourism entrepreneurs, the Lacandon tourism experience is assessed from the pre-European period until present. By analysing a case study of indigenous tourism in Mexico, a developing country in another geographical region and with a different colonial past, this work supplements Weavers’ perspective. The results show that the fourth and fifth stages of Weaver’s model coincide in this case study, while the sixth stage is still incomplete. Although the Lacandon case has its peculiarities and bearing in mind that several different factors should be considered in the Latin American context, the model proves to be an interesting tool for indigenous tourism analysis in developing countries.     

Towards a geography of tourism

This paper traces the development of geographical interest in tourism during the past half century and examines the range and scope of the geography of tourism. The available literature is reviewed and suggestions are made regarding possible research aveneus and theoretical developments. Six major areas of interest are identified: spatial aspects of supply, spatial aspects of demand, the geography of resorts, patterns of movements and flows, the impact of tourism, and models of tourist space. Through an emphasis on spatial interaction an attempt is made to provide some cohesion and synthesis for this body of knowledge which constitutes the basis of the geography of tourism.     

中国邮轮旅游产业:研究现状与展望

邮轮产业已经成为现代旅游业中发展最为迅猛的行业,近几年达到8％左右的增长速度,被视为“漂浮在黄金水道上的黄金产业”.然而,邮轮业并没有引起学术界的足够关注,研究成果还非常有限.近年来国际邮轮市场的倾斜,使得中国邮轮旅游业发展势头强劲,已成为中国经济增长的新方式和新领域.文章基于国内现有的文献资料,对中国邮轮旅游产业的研究问题和研究成果进行了综述.首先介绍了世界邮轮业的概况和中国邮轮业的发展现状;其次从宏观审视和微观分析的角度讨论了中国学者对邮轮旅游业的研究成果;最后针对中国邮轮产业的问题,从产业集聚视角、利益相关者视角和消费者视角提出了未来值得研究的方向.     

Corporate brand strategy: Drivers and outcomes of hotel industry’s brand orientation

The MNC resellers are vastly competitive and capital-intensive. Based on the corporate brand orientation, the objective is to investigate how the individual dimensions of hotel industry’s brand orientation can improve a corporate experience and subsequently create superior hotel performance and retailer preferences. A model of the integration of the hotel industry’s brand orientation was tested in a survey conducted among MNC resellers from hospitality industry. Structural equation modelling was applied to gain insight into the various influences and relationships. The research makes two main contributions. It makes a theoretical contribution by classifying the integration of the hotel industry’s brand orientation for hospitality industry and from this extrapolate key suggestions for further study. The continuous evolution and economic influence of the hospitality industry require the application of innovative marketing practices.     

Perception of tourism development and subjective happiness of residents in Mashhad,Iran

Tourism development affects various aspects of a populace’s life, such as environmental, social, economic, and other areas. This study examines the effect of perceived tourism development on subjective happiness and quality of life among residents of Mashhad City, Iran. A sample size of 384 residents completed a survey. Data analysis was performed using WarpPLS. Results indicated that tourism development had an effect on the residents’ subjective happiness and quality of life (QOL) and the effects of social and micro economic factors on the residents’ subjective happiness and the effects of cultural, environmental, and macroeconomic factors on the resident’s QOL.     

Traditions of sustainability in tourism studies

As sustainability has become an important policy issue in tourism, it is arousing growing discussion and criticism, and an increasing need to understand the nature of the limits of growth. This paper analyzes how these limits are approached and evaluated in discussions on a local scale. The purpose is to recognize that behind the different understandings of them lie distinct traditions that are different in their focuses. These are referred to as resource-, activity-, and community-based traditions of sustainability. Further, the relationship between sustainable tourism and sustainable development is critically discussed.     

Rural tourism and gendered nuances

Research findings on rural residents’ attitudes towards tourism are often contradictory, in part due to a lack of data examining the often divergent perspectives of particular subgroups. Regional survey data from the Intermountain Western United States is used to provide an improved understanding of rural tourism attitudes as they are linked to community involvement and changes, while also exploring both intragender and intergender differences. Group differences in levels of community involvement, perceptions of tourism and various other issues are observed. While differences emerge, there is also widespread agreement on the importance of preserving local culture and the opposition to sale of agricultural land for development.     

An Ecofeminist Narrative of Urban Nature Connection

ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study was to explore meanings, experiences, and perceived impacts associated with an urban nature connection program as narrated by mothers of program participants. “Project Connect”, a charity organization established in 2008, delivers the program investigated in urban parks and green spaces in Toronto, Canada. Drawing on ecofeminism and narrative inquiry, the study reveals a community narrative that depicts how Project Connect serves a group of mothers as an incubator of relationships spanning social and environmental domains, and which enable resistance of status quo forces that shape contemporary cityscapes. Nature connection in this sense is very much a political and cultural process that opens opportunities to challenge but also reproduce aspects of the dominant nature-related discourses. Accordingly, this study prompts consideration of the power of mothers and an ethics of care to transform human-nature relationships, and weaves critical consciousness and cautious re-valuing around the nature narratives we tell.     

社会心理服务驱动下信访“分类治理”的理路——以河南省西平县为例

学界对于信访分类治理的研究大多基于因“人”分类或因“事”分类展开,形成了信访分类治理研究的基本范式。然而,社会心理服务嵌入信访治理体系,为信访分类治理提供了新的视野:因“心”分类,即按照信访人“心理诉求——利益诉求”的两分原则,将信访人分为利益型、心理型、耦合型和无意识型四种。本文以西平县信访治理实践为个案,提炼出由“心”而治的信访分类治理模型,并对该模型的治理理路进行了分析。研究发现:地方政府对信访频次、情绪和事件的三维叠加形成了信访分类治理的参照维度,而地方政府对治理技术的灵活性运用则构成了信访分类治理的动态实践。本文为信访分类治理过程中信访人的心理诉求与利益诉求间的关系提供经验事实,并为社会心理服务驱动下的信访分类治理理路提供分析框架。然而,受限于研究区域和案例数量,本文提炼出来的由“心”而治的信访分类治理模式还有待进一步验证和完善。