Estimating the structural credit risk model when equity prices are contaminated by trading noises

The transformed-data maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method for structural credit risk models developed by Duan [Duan, J.-C., 1994. Maximum likelihood estimation using price data of the derivative contract. Mathematical Finance 4, 155–167] is extended to account for the fact that observed equity prices may have been contaminated by trading noises. With the presence of trading noises, the likelihood function based on the observed equity prices can only be evaluated via some nonlinear filtering scheme. We devise a particle filtering algorithm that is practical for conducting the MLE estimation of the structural credit risk model of Merton [Merton, R.C., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: The risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470]. We implement the method on the Dow Jones 30 firms and on 100 randomly selected firms, and find that ignoring trading noises can lead to significantly over-estimating the firm’s asset volatility. The estimated magnitude of trading noise is in line with the direction that a firm’s liquidity will predict based on three common liquidity proxies. A simulation study is then conducted to ascertain the performance of the estimation method.     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE EXPECTATIONS: SURVEY AND SYNTHESIS

Abstract.  This paper reviews the empirical literature on foreign exchange rate expectations. Prominent issues are the forward premium puzzle, expectations formation in financial markets, heterogeneity of expectations, market microstructure, time-varying risk premiums and forecast performance. Although much has been learned in each field, this survey highlights the areas of research in which our understanding of the mechanism of exchange rate expectations is still incomplete. Our survey suggests that both irrational expectations and time-varying risk premiums account for the forward discount anomaly, that long-term expectations reverse towards their long-run equilibrium values and that heterogeneous behaviour of market participants has the potential of explaining some of the empirical regularities in the international finance literature.     

On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market

Summary. Experiments were conducted on an asset with the structure of an option. The information of any individual is limited, as if only the direction of movement of the option value known for a single period without information of the value from when movement was initiated. However, if all information of all insiders were pooled, the value of the option would be known with certainty. The results are the following: (1) Information becomes aggregated in the prices as if fully informative rational expectations operated; and (2) The mechanism through which information gets into the market is captured by a path dependent process that we term The Fundamental Coordination Principle of Information Transfer in Competitive Markets. The early contracts tend to be initiated by insiders who tender limit orders. The emergence of bubbles and mirages in the markets are coincident with failures and circumstances that prevent the operation of the Fundamental Principle.The financial support of the national science foundation and the Caltech Laboratory for Experimental Economics and Political Science are gratefully acknowledged. The authors have benefited from helpful comments of David Grether, Kerry Back, Ivana Komunjer and Pete Kyle.     

市场微观结构视角的公司财务研究前沿综述

以往一直处于平行发展状态的市场微观结构理论和公司财务学近来出现了交叉融合的趋势,且这一视角的研究将随着我国股权分置改革的完成而变得日趋重要。文章系统回顾了市场微观结构中的两个重要研究主题股票流动性和信息不对称对公司财务行为影响的学术前沿动态,具体包括股票流动性和信息不对称对资产定价、融资决策、投资决策和公司治理等方面影响的文献。文章在对这些文献做出回顾与评述的基础上进一步指出了未来的研究方向。     

When and Where Are Informed Traders? What Is Their Relationship with Analysts in the Price Discovery Process?

The authors' aim was to analyze the influence of analysts' recommendations on the activity of informed and uninformed traders and whether such influence produces changes in the price discovery process. The analysis was carried out in the Spanish market, considered to be an ideal market given its characteristics. The authors' results indicate that although investors as a whole react to new information from analysts and their activity increases, this reaction is not independent of the type of stock. Informed traders do not increase their activity with small stocks to the same extent as uninformed investors do. Furthermore, the influence of these movements on price discovery is not significant. The results suggest that the interpretation role of analysts is more important for less accessible firms in terms of assessing their growth opportunities. This role may enhance the herding behavior of uninformed agents trading in those small titles for which they would otherwise need to invest extra time and extra money for taking profitable decisions.     

中国权证市场涨跌幅限制效应的实证研究

涨跌幅限制制度作为金融体系中稳定价格,防范价格过度波动的措施之一,被许多国家所采用。一直以来,理论界和实务界对涨跌停机制的实施效应存在争议,焦点集中在制度实施过程中可能存在的流动性干扰效应、波动性溢出效应、价格滞后发现效应和磁吸效应等。自2005年中国权证市场采用涨跌幅限制以来已近五年,其实施效果和对权证市场的发展产生的影响值得我们进行研究和探讨。本文选取截至目前我国已经和正在上市交易的55只权证日交易数据进行分析,检验涨跌幅限制对权证非理性波动的影响,以及流动性干扰效应、波动溢出效应和价格发现延迟效应是否存在,来考察我国权证市场中涨跌幅限制制度的实施效果和效应。     

不锈钢盘条扭转性能差异与微观组织分析研究

对不同产地采用相同热轧工艺的不锈钢盘条进行了一系列的扭转试验,通过金相、扫描电镜等分析手段,探讨了不锈钢盘条扭转性能的差异原因与其微观织构的关系。     

Liquidity biases in asset pricing tests

Microstructure noise in security prices biases the results of empirical asset pricing specifications, particularly when security-level explanatory variables are cross-sectionally correlated with the amount of noise. We focus on tests of whether measures of illiquidity, which are likely to be correlated with the noise, are priced in the cross-section of stock returns, and show a significant upward bias in estimated return premiums for an array of illiquidity measures in Center for Research in Security Prices (CRSP) monthly return data. The upward bias is larger when illiquid securities are included in the sample, but persists even for NYSE/Amex stocks after decimalization. We introduce a methodological correction to eliminate the biases that simply involves weighted least squares (WLS) rather than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation, and find evidence of smaller, but still significant, return premiums for illiquidity after implementing the correction.