Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation, interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by Grossman and Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985). We find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are (1) much more volatile than interest rates, inflation rates, and money growth rates, (2) highly correlated with each other, and (3) highly persistent. While this model fails to match the data in other important respects, it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior.     

Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

Monetary policy and financial markets are intrinsically linked. Central banks conduct monetary policy by influencing financial market prices. Financial market prices reflect the expectations of market participants about future economic and monetary developments. Monetary policy works primarily through expectations. Transparency and credibility render monetary policy more effective. However, they are no substitutes for action. If a credible central bank uses words with the explicit aim of substituting them for action, it will risk losing credibility. To avoid what has been described as “the dog chasing its tail” problem, central banks must exercise caution in basing their monetary policy decisions on financial market information. The information about expected future developments reflected in market prices must be continuously cross-checked against economic and monetary indicators in what amounts to a “checks and balances” approach to monetary policy.     

布雷顿森林体系Ⅱ：博弈均衡与中国的困境

如果把人民币汇率问题纳入“新布雷顿森林体系”的分析框架,通过分析“新布雷顿森林体系”的运行机制和其中的各方博弈,所能够得出的短期均衡结果是,美国继续进口亚洲商品,亚洲国家对美融资以保持美国国内旺盛的消费需求。但从长期来看,新布雷顿森林体系由于自身存在的制度性缺陷,最终会导致亚洲国家组建的对美融资“卡特尔”走向分裂。中国在这个卡塔尔与其破裂的预期中,面临三重困境需要突破。     

强势美元政策：有效性检讨与可持续性分析

强势美元政策保证了外资对美国的强劲流入,支撑了美国的低通货膨胀,弥补了美国的储蓄———投资缺口和对外贸易逆差,巩固了美元的全球霸权地位,总之,强势美元政策促进了美国的经济增长。由于美国存在对强势美元政策的依赖性及美元的全球霸权地位没有受到实质性的挑战,在可预见的将来,强势美元政策仍会持续也仍可持续,美国仍将实行强势美元政策。     

日本结束量化宽松货币政策的影响分析

2006年3月9日,日本银行宣布终止实行了5年之久的“量化宽松”政策。朝最终升息跨出了第一步,原因是日本经济从2005年起出现了比较明显的好转,如果再继续实行超宽松的货币政策有可能引发通胀。日本央行这次顶住了政府压力做出改变货币政策的决定, 凸现其独立性进一步提高。在目前状况下日本货币政策的改变对日本经济和全球经济都具有积极影响,对资金流动和金融市场的影响更大,尤其是将提高日本金融市场的吸引力。     

Texas 9-1-1: Emergency telecommunications and the genesis of surveillance infrastructure

Infrastructures of surveillance—everyday, taken-for-granted, institutionalized and technically mediated practices which identify, observe, and analyze individual actions—permeate society. These infrastructures mediate the production of social knowledge and action toward individuals. This article examines the genesis of one such infrastructure, namely the coordinated practices of identifying and locating mobile phone users during emergency (9-1-1) calls. Implementing this infrastructure has entailed creating and coordinating systems to locate wireless phones, to deliver the emergency calls to the appropriate service agency, and to deliver appropriate services to the emergency event. This implementation has occurred within historically specific regulatory, political, cultural, technological, and economic contexts and has specific implications for general surveillance practice. Focusing primarily on the state of Texas, this article examines the development of systems which store and deliver individuals’ geographic location. It argues that, despite privacy laws tightly restricting the use of information generated in the 9-1-1 process, and despite the special purpose to which the 9-1-1 system is dedicated, the wireless 9-1-1 initiative has created the infrastructure for a general purpose locational surveillance infrastructure capable both of surveilling broad patterns of activities and of responding to particular individuals. Moreover, the infrastructure is more available to police agencies and to well-established and well-funded corporate entities than to grass roots organizations. This trend is driven by the need to coordinate a national emergency response system within a fractured telecommunication industry, by the desire of marketers to understand and address their customers’ habits of mobility, and by an increasing willingness of police agencies to include widespread surveillance under the rubric of “emergency services.” Policy responses such as greater ability to opt out of the surveillance system, public oversight of emergency operations, and greater public access to the infrastructure itself might mitigate the most harmful potential social effects of this infrastructure, while distributing its benefits in a more democratic and egalitarian way.     

Impact of sales force automation on technology-related stress, effort, and technology usage among salespeople

This study unveils factors affecting sales force automation (SFA) technology usage by salespeople. It differs from previous research by: (1) proposing a model that examines the consequences of task complexity on role perceptions and technology usage, and (2) understanding the negative repercussions of SFA technology on the user. The proposed model was tested using data from 150 salespeople employed by a national organization. The results suggest that integration of SFA technology induces adverse role perceptions in salespeople. However, controlling for extraneous variables, effort is significantly related to salespeople's usage of technology. Key managerial implications for theory and practice are discussed.     

Monetary policy and stock valuation: structural VAR identification and size effects

This paper examines the relationship between the US monetary policy and stock valuation using a structural VAR framework that allows for the simultaneous interaction between the federal funds rate and stock market developments based on the assumption of long-run monetary neutrality. The results confirm a strong, negative and significant monetary policy tightening effect on real stock prices. Furthermore, we provide evidence consistent with a delayed response of small stocks to monetary policy shocks relative to large stocks.     

中国通货膨胀率持久性变化研究及政策含义分析

通胀率持久性在通胀率动态研究中备受学界的关注,并且直接影响现代货币政策传导机制的终解方程式。本文对我国通胀率持久性的统计特性做了严谨的计量检验和分析,应用“格点拔靴(自举)”中值无偏估计和Exp-Wald未知断点检验来捕捉我国物价波动持久性的特征。统计结果显示,通胀率持久性在高通胀时期走高,而在物价波动减小的20世纪90年代中后期显著减弱。我们讨论了这一发现对相关货币政策分析机制的含义。     

投资需求、利率机制与我国财政政策的有效性

本文在传统凯恩斯模型和新古典总供需模型的基础上构建了一个可计量的财政政策利率效应分析模型,并利用2LS方法对模型进行了估计,得出几点结论:一是我国财政政策对真实利率的影响在统计上并不显著;二是财政政策与真实利率之间无关性的估计结果并没有受财政赤字弥补方式和经济运行机制变化的影响;三是相对于财政政策,我国货币政策对真实利率的影响更显著,货币政策的相机变化通过利率机制对财政政策的有效性产生了一定的抵消作用,但程度有限。上述结论意味着,我国财政政策通过利率机制对私人部门投资需求产生的挤出效应是相当有限的。