RISK PREMIUM EFFECTS ON IMPLIED VOLATILITY REGRESSIONS

This article provides new insights into the sources of bias of option implied volatility to forecast its physical counterpart. We argue that this bias can be attributed to volatility risk premium effects. The latter are found to depend on high‐order cumulants of the risk‐neutral density. These cumulants capture the risk‐averse behavior of investors in the stock and option markets for bearing the investment risk that is reflected in the deviations of the implied risk‐neutral distribution from the normal distribution. We show that the bias of implied volatility to forecast its corresponding physical measure can be eliminated when the implied volatility regressions are adjusted for risk premium effects. The latter are captured mainly by the third‐order risk‐neutral cumulant. We also show that a substantial reduction of higher order risk‐neutral cumulants biases to predict their corresponding physical cumulants is supported when adjustments for risk premium effects are made.     

Causal effects of sex preference on sex-blind and sex-selective child avoidance and substitution across birth years: Evidence from the Japanese year of the fire horse

This paper examines the effect of a short-term change in preference for male offspring on couples' childbearing and child-avoidance behaviors. We exploit a natural experiment in Japan in which girls born in a specific astrological year are regarded as less desirable. We relate this superstition to an economic model of child avoidance. We measure the relative importance of sex-selective and sex-blind child avoidance responses nationwide and across geographic areas and the degree of substitutability of children across birth years in Japan in 1846, 1906, and 1966, and we examine how these responses interacted with the economic and social development of Japan over this period.     

Estimating the Aboriginal Population in Early Colonial Australia: The Role of Chickenpox Reconsidered

Noel Butlin radically altered the debate about the pre-colonial Aboriginal population when he provided a set of hypothetical demographic scenarios, which nonetheless were both grounded in economic theory or human ecological considerations and broadly consistent with what we know about the historical record. This research builds on Butlin's legacy by exploring how his scenarios are consistent with both the medical understandings of the infectiousness and mortality of various diseases and the history of settlement. Another contribution from this paper is to highlight the possible role of chickenpox in the Aboriginal depopulation in the early colonial period.     

Multisim10仿真软件在模拟电子技术教学中的应用

在模拟电子技术课堂教学、作业布置、实验及考核等教学环节中可以利用Multisim10仿真软件，加深学生对课程内容的理解，培养学生构建实用电路和解决实际问题的能力。     

Disability Costs and Equivalence Scales in the Older Population in Great Britain

We use a standard of living (SoL) approach to estimate older people's disability costs, using data on 8000 individuals from the U.K. Family Resources Survey. We extend previous research in two ways. First, by allowing for a more flexible relationship between SoL and income, the structure of the estimated disability cost and equivalence scale is not dictated by a restrictive functional form assumption. Second, we allow for the latent nature of disability and SoL, addressing measurement error in the disability and SoL indicators in surveys. We find that disability costs are strongly related to severity of disability, and vary with income in absolute and proportionate terms. Older people above the median disability level require an extra £99 per week (2007 prices) on average to reach the SoL of an otherwise similar person at the median. Costs faced by older people in the highest decile of disability average £180.     

Understanding Japan's Capital Goods Exports

Japan is the leading supplier of sophisticated capital goods to East Asian countries. These goods embody advanced technologies and facilitate learning and productivity growth. Capital goods also represent 30–40% of Japan's exports. This paper investigates the determinants of these exports. Results from dynamic ordinary least squares estimation indicate that exports depend on exchange rates, income in the importing countries and downstream countries' exports to the rest of the world. Results from out‐of‐sample forecasts indicate that Japanese exports crashed in 2009 because of the perfect storm of a yen appreciation, a global slowdown and a collapse in Asia's exports.     

Short‐run marginal medical costs from booze and butts: Evidence from the states

This article uses a panel data set of U.S. states over the 1980 to 2007 period to estimate the demands for medical care, cigarettes, and beer. The estimation process generates own‐price, income, and cross‐price elasticities for all three goods. Implied per capita beer and cigarette consumption elasticities of per capita health care expenditures, suggested by our baseline estimates, are 0.83 and 0.14, respectively. These results are robust to a number of specification tests. Simulations suggest that yearly marginal medical costs amount to approximately $12 per bottle and 27 cents per cigarette in the short run (in 2012 dollars). These results are likely to be driven by the much larger corresponding increases in the consumption of binge drinkers and heavy smokers.

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