流出人口与农村家庭户特征——基于流出地的分析

从迁出地(农村)角度出发,利用五普千分之一原始数据,以家庭户为基本分析单位,比较了有迁出人口和没有迁出人口的家庭户的部分特征差异,利用Logistic回归和负二项回归,分别分析家庭特征对人口迁出及迁出人数的影响作用。回答的问题是:什么样的家庭户才会有迁出人口。证明了所提出的假设:在以家庭或家族为经济活动单位的当今中国,个人的迁移行为,除受个人因素及社会经济因素的影响之外,家庭户的各种特征对人口迁移有着显著的影响作用。     

Ownership structure and the pricing of discretionary accruals in Japan

This paper examines the valuation effect of discretionary accruals for Japanese firms, taking into account the book value of equity. Consistent with US evidence, the Japanese market prices discretionary accruals, indicating that discretionary accruals enhance the value relevance of reported earnings. This value relevance is lower for cross-held firms, consistent with the view that cross-business shareholding aggravates tunneling or managerial opportunism through discretionary accounting choices. On the other hand, foreign shareholding and bond financing provide effective monitoring on managerial discretion of profit firms to enhance the valuation of discretionary accruals.     

Bancarization and violent attacks from guerrilla and other illegal groups in Colombia

Income shocks affect violence through the opportunity cost and rapacity effects. Existing studies focus on the impact of transitory shocks, especially commodity price innovations. This paper builds on this literature and studies the causal effect of permanent income shocks on armed conflict in Colombia. Using a rich dataset reporting all guerrilla and other armed groups' attacks by municipality between 2009 and 2014 and information on the provision of banking services, it shows that increasing bancarization leads to reductions in violence. These results have important implications for public policy in countries with a long history of violence. They suggest that promoting financial inclusion is useful for reducing conflict.     

The legitimacy of subsidiary issue selling: Balancing positive & negative attention from corporate headquarters

We consider how in issue selling, subsidiaries draw on different forms of legitimacy to attract corporate headquarters’ (CHQ) positive attention and minimise negative CHQ attention. Through case study evidence, we find that directing CHQ attention to subsidiary issues needs to be executed as a balancing act through forms of subsidiary legitimacy, namely; the personal legitimacy of key individuals at the subsidiary; consequential legitimacy vis-à-vis peer subsidiaries; and linkage legitimacy in the local environment. We develop a typology of subsidiary issue-selling roles and illustrate how negative CHQ attention results from a failure to legitimise issue selling.     

Separate when equal? Racial inequality and residential segregation

This paper sets out a new mechanism involving the emergence of middle-class black neighborhoods that can lead segregation in American cities to increase as racial inequality narrows. The formation of such neighborhoods requires a critical mass of highly educated blacks in the population, and leads to an increase in segregation when those communities are attractive for blacks who would otherwise reside in middle-class white neighborhoods. To assess the empirical importance of this “neighborhood formation” mechanism, we propose a two-part research design. First, inequality and segregation should be negatively related in cross section for older blacks if our mechanism operates strongly, as we find using both the 1990 and 2000 Censuses. Second, a negative relationship should also be apparent over time, particularly for older blacks. Here, we show that increased educational attainment of blacks relative to whites in a city between 1990 and 2000 leads to a significant rise in segregation, especially for older blacks, and to a marked increase in the number of middle-class black communities. These findings draw attention to a negative feedback loop between racial inequality and segregation that has implications for the dynamics of both phenomena.     

“五年规划”该规划什么,不该规划什么?

在市场经济条件下，政府制定规划的基本作用与思路为“研判未来趋势，提出发展愿景，规划政府任务”，对市场进行“负面清单管理”，对政府进行“正面清单约束”。政府应提高治理能力，努力把自己该做的事做足、做好，少搞产业政策，减少对市场干预，做真正体现小政府、大市场、由市场起决定性作用的规划。     

Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models

In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black–Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based on Machine Learning, exploited together with binomial trees or with a closed form formula for integration. Moreover, these two methods solve the backward dynamic programing problem considering a Bermudan approximation of the American option. On the exercise dates, the value of the option is first computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value and then approximated by means of Gaussian Process Regression. The two methods mainly differ in the approach used to compute the continuation value: a single step of the binomial tree or integration according to the probability density of the process. Numerical results show that these two methods are accurate and reliable in handling American options on very large baskets of assets. Moreover we also consider the rough Bergomi model, which provides stochastic volatility with memory. Despite that this model is only bidimensional, the whole history of the process impacts on the price, and how to handle all this information is not obvious at all. To this aim, we present how to adapt the GPR-Tree and GPR-EI methods and we focus on pricing American options in this non-Markovian framework.     

Negative externalities on property values resulting from water impairment: The case of the Pigeon River Watershed

The objective of this research was to determine whether willingness to bear the negative externality from water quality impairment differs between those who do and those who do not receive economic benefit from the impairment source. Differences were tested using a hedonic analysis of ambient water quality in two discrete housing markets in the Pigeon River Watershed, which have been polluted by the operation of a paper mill. The results suggest that North Carolina residents residing in subwatersheds with impaired portions of the Pigeon River, who experience economic benefit from the paper mill in addition to its harmful effects on water quality, do perceive the pollution as a negative externality. In contrast, the effects of both the degraded river and its contributing streams on property values are perceived as negative externalities by watershed residents in Tennessee who experience only harmful effects from the pollution. Differences in willingness to bear the water-impairment externality were not indicated by variables representing view of and proximity to impaired water bodies. The results suggest that the perception of water quality to which property owners implicitly apply value should be considered when establishing water-quality regulations.     

双重二元金融结构、农户信贷需求与农村金融改革——基于11省14县市的田野调查

破除二元金融结构、推进农村金融改革、及时调整非均衡增长模式是克服金融危机和保持经济可持续发展的关键。本文基于11省14县市的田野调查数据,对农户信贷意愿和信贷可及性及其影响因素进行了定量分析,同时运用统计数据揭示了我国农村系统性负投资和双重二元金融结构的制度特征与经济后果。本文最后对未来农村金融体系改革中激励与约束机制设计、存量改革与增量改革战略以及普惠金融体系的构建提出了系统的政策框架。     

The negative spillover effect of food crises on restaurant firms: Did Jack in the Box really recover from an E. coli scare?

Despite the enormous impact of food crises on restaurants, limited understanding of their long-term impacts and associated factors has undermined crisis managers’ ability to handle crisis situations effectively. This article investigated the long-term impact of food crises on the financial performance of restaurant firms and identified the factors that influenced this impact. This explanatory study examined the case of Jack in the Box, whose 1993 Escherichia coli scare was the first and largest restaurant-associated food crisis in modern times. An event study method was used to uncover stock price movements of Jack in the Box, in conjunction with 73 unrelated food crises that occurred from 1994 to 2010. Stock prices of Jack in the Box exhibited significantly negative responses to other firms’ food crises, moreover, the negative spillover effect was stronger if the crisis occurred closer in time, was similar in nature, and was accompanied with no recall execution. These findings shed light on the long-term financial impact of food crises and offer insights for crisis managers to develop more effective crisis management strategies.