浅析二项分布、泊松分布和正态分布之间的关系

二项分布、泊松分布和正态分布一直是学习和研究概率统计的基础。在一定条件下,这三个分布之间存在着密切关系。文章通过求极限分布,研究了二项分布与泊松分布、二项分布与正态分布之间的关系,并利用特征函数和分布函数相互唯一确定这一性质,分析了泊松分布和正态分布之间的关系。     

A unified approach to bivariate discrete distributions

Here we introduce a bivariate generalized hypergeometric factorial moment distribution (BGHFMD) through its probability generating function (p.g.f.) whose marginal distributions are the generalized hypergeometric factorial moment distributions introduced by Kemp and Kemp (Bull Int Stat Inst 43:336–338,1969). Well-known bivariate versions of distributions such as binomial, negative binomial and Poisson are special cases of this distribution. A genesis of the distribution and explicit closed form expressions for the probability mass function of the BGHFMD, its factorial moments and the p.g.f.’s of its conditional distributions are derived here. Certain recurrence relations for probabilities, moments and factorial moments of the bivariate distribution are also established.     

NIT picking: The macroeconomic effects of a Negative Income Tax

I study a revenue-neutral reform of the U.S. income tax and welfare system that involves the adoption of a Negative Income Tax (NIT). The reform is undertaken in a life-cycle economy with individual heterogeneity and uninsurable idiosyncratic labor risk. The optimal NIT consists of a 22% rate and a transfer equivalent to 11% of per-capita GDP. The ex-ante average welfare gain is a 2.1% annual increase of individual consumption. I show that a NIT outperforms a flat tax reform (income tax plus deduction) by a considerable margin. The key consequence of the reform is that high-productivity agents increase their relative importance in the labor supply at the expense of low-productivity agents.     

我国风险投资防稀释条款的应用及效用分析

当前,风险投资活动大多采用多轮投资的方式。如何在可能的后轮降价融资情况下保障自己的股份价值不被稀释,是防稀释条款的主要功能。但严厉的防稀释条款会对创业企业家造成损害,进而影响风险投资机构的利益。风险投资机构在设立防稀释条款时应避免设置完全棘轮条款,争取设置止损触发式期权和设置防稀释条款失效条款来激发创业企业家的创业激情;创业企业家则应争取设立＂持续融资＂条款和完善例外事项条款来抵消防稀释条款的消极作用。     

高校实行绩效工资制度存在的问题与对策

绩效工资是一把＂双刃剑＂,用得好能大大提高管理效益,用得不好又会制造新的麻烦与障碍。本文分析了高校实行绩效工资制度的优势和负面影响,并对进一步完善高校绩效工资制度提出了对策和建议。     

A sensemaking perspective on network pictures

This paper examines the concept of network pictures through the lens of the organizational sensemaking perspective. Essentially it develops the concept of network pictures by suggesting we think of them as exercises in sensemaking. It does so by providing an introduction to organizational sensemaking before establishing a degree of commensurability between network pictures and sensemaking. It suggests that what we may then see more clearly is that the concept of network pictures needlessly gets involved in reification when talking of ‘the’ network picture whereas a more dynamic approach leads to ideas of network picturing in which the complete discrediting or collapse of extant sensemaking and network pictures provides a research opportunity that could be jointly explored by both perspectives. The paper concludes that paradoxically ‘finding’ this new sense or new network picture appropriate to radically changed times is facilitated by a process that involves first ‘becoming lost’.     

A conceptual model to imply a negative innovation assessment framework on consumer behaviors through the electronic business platforms

Online retail platforms significantly impact consumers' purchasing decisions. Satisfaction, purchase intent, and repeat online shopping drive the platform's purchasing decisions. In contrast, individuals do not purchase products due to dissatisfaction and lack of purchasing intent. It will cause hesitation and spread negative feedback to influence online consumer behaviors. This research proposes a conceptual model incorporating the Status Quo Bias (SQB) and the Negative Online Purchase Decision-Making Process (NOPDMP) to suggest a new framework for evaluating the maintained consumer behavior of online shopping platforms. The questionnaires following the proposed conceptual model were collected from the sample data from participants of 384 experienced respondents using online shopping platforms. Data were analyzed for the causal relationship using Structural Equation Model. The implications of the assessment framework that incorporates the influence of negative factors can weigh the decision to purchase products and improve and reduce shopping cart abandonment on e-commerce platforms. This framework can also describe instances of negative perspectives regarding incentive alignments with actual behaviors.     

共享经济的现代发展及其潜在问题:以共享单车为例的分析

共享经济减少了物品的闲置而最大限度地发挥了物品的功效,不仅可以增进生产者剩余和消费者剩余,而且也有利于打造新型的低碳环保的经济形态。但同时,共享经济的无序发展也带来了两大严重问题：（1）准公共品性质滋生出大量的搭便车行为,进而使得运营商受损;（2）准公共品性质还滋生出强烈的负外部性,进而使得运营商获利。进而,第一个问题的解决有赖于有效的治理机制,其中最佳机制是"强互惠"机制,而这依赖于社会网络的建设和文化伦理的培育;第二个问题的解决有赖于明确的责任界定,其中可行的措施是设立"维安基金",而这有赖于新的制度安排和立法思考。一般地,只有解决上述两大问题,才能全面衡量新兴共享经济的真实经济价值,进而才能更好地引导共享经济的有序发展。很大程度上,共享泡沫的产生和破灭都体现出市场创新的盲目性,从而就需要政府的积极规划和引导。     

网络技术负向价值的表象、析因与消解

任何技术都有价值的二重性,网络技术也不例外。透过网络技术在生态、社会和人本三个层面负向价值的表象,分析了导致网络技术负向价值产生的主客体原因,并针对这些主客体原因探讨了综合运用技术、法律和伦理方法来消解网络技术的负向价值以及这些消解方法之间的关系。     

Achieving smooth asymptotics for the prices of European options in binomial trees

A new binomial approximation to the Black–Scholes model is introduced. It is shown that, for digital options and vanilla European call and put options, a complete asymptotic expansion of the error in powers of n ^?1 exists. This is the first binomial tree for which an asymptotic expansion has been shown to exist.