缩小我国城乡收入差距对策研究

上世纪80年代,我国农村改革的成功使得农民收入迅速增长,曾经一度缩小了城乡收入差距。但90年代中期以后,农民收入增长开始乏力,而城市居民收入增长相对较快,造成我国城乡收入差距不断扩大,且速度加快。有关测算结果表明城乡收入差距是决定收入总体差距的首要因素,其贡献率在60%左右。所以对缩小城乡居民收入差距的探索显得尤为重要。本文从城乡收入差距的现象及原因出发,研究缩小我国城乡收入差距的对策。     

宁波市利用外资负效果与可持续发展

新世纪宁波经济已进入一个新的发展阶段,改革开放26年来,宁波利用外资的数额不断增加。利用外资在带来积极效应的同时也带来一定的负面效应。本文根据利用外资和可持续发展有关理论对宁波利用外资的负效果进行了分析,并对新世纪利用外资提出了相应的对策。     

Minimax estimation of constrained parametric functions for discrete families of distributions

For a vast class of discrete model families where the natural parameter is constrained to an interval, we give conditions for which the Bayes estimator with respect to a boundary supported prior is minimax under squared error loss type functions. Building on a general development of éric Marchand and Ahmad Parsian, applicable to squared error loss, we obtain extensions to various parametric functions and squared error loss type functions. We provide illustrations for various distributions and parametric functions, and these include examples for many common discrete distributions, as well as when the parametric function is a zero-count probability, an odds-ratio, a Binomial variance, and a Negative Binomial variance, among others. The Research of M. Jafari Jozani is supported by a grant of the Institute for Research and Planning in Higher Education, Ministry of Science, Research and Technology, Iran. The Research of é. Marchand is supported by NSERC of Canada.     

交易成本理论的现实意义

科斯的交易成本理论包括交易成本和科斯定理.交易成本的本质是与交易有关的制度的运行成本,科斯定理最根本的是明确产权对减少交易成本的决定性作用.体制的创新、企业的改革、外部效应所产生的污染问题及政府的职能转变等充分诠释了交易成本理论的现实意义.     

反倾销的跨国实证分析——基于宏观经济因素对反倾销立案影响的理解

本文基于15个国家1995－2004年反倾销的统计数据,通过模型分析以及实证研究,表明宏观经济因素对反倾销立案存在显著影响。文章依据GDP增长率、失业率、汇率及经常项目差额等相关数据,指出这些变量与反倾销立案数量显著相关,强调失业率的影响比GDP增长率更加显著。在发展中国家中,汇率对反倾销立案数量影响的显著性较低,而经常项目差额对反倾销立案数量影响的显著性较高。本文的分析在一定程度上给政府制定反倾销政策提供了相关参考价值。     

Protection in numbers? Self-protection as a local public good

In many contexts with endogenous physical risks – e.g., households, neighbourhood traffic calming, production quality control – risk reduction is a local public good. Risk-reduction incentives then depend on the protected population’s size. Focusing on a household’s physical risks modelled as an i.i.d. Bernoulli trials sequence with endogenous “success” probability, I give sufficient conditions for safety to increase with the number protected via both monotone comparative statics methodology and a “first-order” approach. I utilise a recursive decomposition of a covariance involving a monotonic function of a binomial variable and first-degree stochastic dominance (FSD). Because “protection” problems are generally non-concave, I give a detailed treatment of the second-order condition, again via FSD.     

A white-boxed ISSM approach to estimate uncertainty distributions of Walmart sales

We present our solution for the M5 Uncertainty competition. Our solution ranked sixth out of 909 submissions across all hierarchical levels and ranked first for prediction at the finest level of granularity (product-store sales, i.e. SKUs). The model combines a multi-stage state-space model and Monte Carlo simulations to generate the forecasting scenarios (trajectories). Observed sales are modelled with negative binomial distributions to represent discrete over-dispersed sales. Seasonal factors are handcrafted and modelled with linear coefficients that are calculated at the store-department level.     

A generalization of the Binomial distribution based on the dependence ratio

We propose a generalization of the Binomial distribution, called DR‐Binomial, which accommodates dependence among units through a model based on the dependence ratio (Ekholm et al., Biometrika, 82, 1995, 847). Properties of the DR‐Binomial are discussed, and the constraints on its parameter space are studied in detail. Likelihood‐based inference is presented, using both the joint and profile likelihoods; the usefulness of the DR‐Binomial in applications is illustrated on a real dataset displaying negative unit‐dependence, and hence under‐dispersion compared with the Binomial. Although the DR‐Binomial turns out to be a reparameterization of Altham's Additive‐Binomial and Kupper–Haseman's Correlated‐Binomial distribution, we believe its introduction is useful, both in terms of interpretability and mathematical tractability and in terms of generalizability to the Multinomial case.     

基于认知-情绪交互视角的产品伤害危机沟通实证研究

从认知-情绪交互的视角出发,考量消费者的认知评价、负面情绪和行为倾向之间的关系。结果表明,危机沟通方式会导致不同强度的负面情绪,而负面情绪则显著地影响被调查者的认知评价以及行为倾向,鉴于此,应将关注消费者情绪提升到企业危机沟通的战略高度。     

高额外汇储备对我国宏观经济的影响及政策建议

从新的外汇体制运行起,我国外汇储备急剧上涨,长年居于世界首位,2013年达到3.82万亿美元,创历史新高。适当规模的外汇储备可以抵御外部经济冲击,但高额外汇储备也增加了资产损失的风险。因此,如何改革使高额外汇储备保值增值,优化外汇储备结构是我们需要思考的问题。