外资进入和我国企业的生产率：“溢出”抑或“挤出”效应

我国改革和开放是同时推进的，引进了众多外资企业来推动我国经济发展。那么，外资企业的进入是否有助于我国内资企业的成长？本文分析我国工业企业超大样本数据，探讨外资进入的影响，研究我国内资企业的生产率能否向效率前沿收敛。结果发现，我国不同类型的内资企业均存在效率前沿的收敛趋势，内外资企业生产率差距不断缩小。外资进入对我国内资企业的短期影响主要表现为溢出效应，但是对于同行业的其他外资企业呈现挤出效应，特别是其他独资外企。我们进一步发现外资进入的长期影响是挤出效应，但是对于国有企业和民营企业的影响却不尽相同。     

The impact of equity ownership groups on investment: Evidence from Ukraine

We empirically investigate the impact of different ownership groups on companies’ investment in Ukraine with a novel dynamic investment model where investment is based on present and historical levels of profitability (market-to-book value of equity) and lagged investment. Groups include state, insider, non-domestic, financial and financial and industrial group (FIG) ownership. Contrary to the literature, we find that the past level of profitability significantly affects investment; the majority presence of and increases in state ownership have a negative impact on firms’ investment, as is the case for non-domestic and financial companies’ ownership. Insider and FIG ownership have no impact on investment. We explain the results by the extent of liquidity concerns (hard and soft budget constraints), measured by cash flow interacted with a dummy variable of majority ownership of the respective group, and the extent of asset stripping for the corresponding ownership group and relate them to over- and under-investment, and to the free cash flow or cash constraint hypothesis.     

Stage-gate process for life sciences and medical innovation investment

Life science innovation has led to significant improvements in clinical outcomes and has been a source of financial growth for individuals and institutions capable of performing appropriate investments in this sector. Several groups have developed methodologies to assist medical technology innovators in the design and development activities. Unfortunately, these tools have not aided the general investment community to profit from these enterprises. This situation has contributed to a general reduction in risk capital directed towards life sciences compared to other industries. We review the current investment practices in the life science sector and present a comprehensive stage-gate model that aims to captures this investment process. An analysis of best practices and in-depth interviews with 68 life sciences investors and entrepreneurs worldwide are used to support such model. A single case-control study comparing life science investment execution within two similar investment firms was conducted to evaluate feasibility in the implementation of these practices. The stage-gate model includes (I) General vision and investment strategy definition; (II) Venture search, screening and rapid pre-evaluation; (III) Due diligence and negotiation of terms; (IV) Portfolio management, evaluation, and exit. The difference in execution of investment and results from a post-performance Root Cause Analysis were consistent with a reduction in perceived risk from the case company trained with the proposed model compared to the control. This suggests that our developed model and process may be useful in encouraging life sciences investment via evidence-based evaluations.     

Financial components of FDI and choice of capital structure: an analysis for 30 OECD countries

Even though the choice of capital structure depends on the three different financial components of foreign direct investment (FDI), previous research has regarded FDI as unidimensional rather than multidimensional. This study addresses new findings in the FDI area and investigates the relevant determinants of capital structure in 30 OECD countries from 2006 to 2014 within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Our primary findings reveal that each component has its own deterministic features driven by relevant policy variables and risks in the market. While an increase or decrease in equity capital shows the ability of the host country to attract new investments, the subsequent components are mostly used to adjust the equity capital investment exposure.     

Forecasting China's foreign exchange reserves using dynamic model averaging: The roles of macroeconomic fundamentals,financial stress and economic uncertainty

We develop models for examining possible predictors of growth of China's foreign exchange reserves that embrace Chinese and global trade, financial and risk (uncertainty) factors. Specifically, by comparing with other alternative models, we show that the dynamic model averaging (DMA) and dynamic model selection (DMS) models outperform not only linear models (such as random walk, recursive OLS-AR(1) models, recursive OLS with all predictive variables models) but also the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) model for examining possible predictors of growth of those reserves. The DMS is the best overall across all forecast horizons. While some predictors matter more than others over the forecast horizons, there are few that stand the test of time. The US–China interest rate differential has a superior predictive power among the 13 predictors considered, followed by the nominal effective exchange rate and the interest rate spread for most of the forecast horizons. The relative predictive prowess of the oil and copper prices alternates, depending on the commodity cycles. Policy implications are also provided.     

The impact of exchange rate deviations from relative PPP equilibrium on the U.S. demand for foreign equities

Applying fixed-effects panel data, this study investigates the impact of U.S. dollar exchange rate movements during different exchange rate states (overvaluation and undervaluation) on the monthly real gross and real net purchases of foreign equities by U.S. residents over the post-Plaza Accord period. The foreign equities come from 22 developed and 25 developing countries. Previous research has posited two alternative hypotheses regarding the relationship between exchange rates and foreign investment. These are the wealth effect and the profit-oriented effect. The evidence herein suggests that these two hypotheses coexist. We find robust evidence for a negative relationship between the exchange rate movements of an undervalued U.S. dollar and the demand for foreign equities. For developed countries, the wealth effect dominates the profit-oriented effect when the U.S. dollar is overvalued, while, for developing countries, the profit-oriented effect dominates the wealth effect. The results emphasize the importance of considering exchange rate states derived from a relative PPP equilibrium when analyzing U.S. allocations to foreign equities. The findings with respect to the macroeconomic control variables are mainly in agreement with the predictions of international financial theory. Some of the results, however, disappear or become inconclusive for the period after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. This may be explained by the increased uncertainty in international financial markets following this unprecedented event. The findings are robust with respect to different constructed equilibrium exchange rates.     

高管过度自信、研发投入跳跃与企业绩效——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于间断平衡理论和高阶梯队理论，以2007-2017年中国沪深两市902家制造企业为样本，实证分析研发投入跳跃对企业绩效的影响以及高管过度自信的调节作用。结果显示：研发投入正向跳跃和负向跳跃均有助于提升企业绩效，高管过度自信正向调节研发投入跳跃与企业绩效间的关系。引入高管过度自信这一重要高管特征作为调节变量，有助于重新认识管理者心理偏差对企业创新行为和绩效的影响，较好地弥补了研发投入跳跃对企业绩效影响机制的研究空缺，丰富了创新间断平衡理论研究。研究表明，企业应重视高管心理特征的影响并结合自身实际情况，合理选择研发投入策略以改善企业绩效。     

Extreme risk spillovers between crude palm oil prices and exchange rates

This study is the first attempt to examine the extreme risk spillovers between Malaysian crude palm oil (CPO) and foreign exchange currencies of the three largest CPO importers: India, the European Union and China throughout the global financial crisis. Using daily data of three currencies, CPO spot and futures from 2000 to 2018, our results show: First, before the crisis, the unexpected change in foreign exchange rates is the primary driver of risk spillover to the CPO market. Second, during the crisis, the extreme movement of CPO spot returns is dominant in the Malaysian exchange rates relative to the euro. Third, after the crisis, the spillover flows from the CPO market to the foreign exchange market. Overall, our findings show the importance of CPO pricing dynamics in mitigating foreign exchange risk over the crisis period. This paper contributes to the extant literature by recognizing the effect of risk spillover on the targeted foreign exchange rate for portfolio allocation.     

Smoking hot portfolios? Trading behavior,investment biases,and self-control failure

Self-control is a personality trait that explains undersaving and nonparticipation decisions. We show that self-control failure also affects trading behavior among individuals on capital markets. We use smoking as the most socially accepted example of self-control failure among 13,644 German brokerage clients and compare the trading behavior of 3,553 smokers and 10,091 nonsmokers. Smokers are associated with a higher portfolio turnover unexplained by financial sophistication or wealth effects. Self-control failure also exacerbates overconfidence, social contagion, sensation seeking, and attention grabbing. Overall, self-control failure is costly because it increases the gap between gross and net returns of smokers relative to nonsmokers.