中国上市公司债权对公司绩效影响的实证研究

关于债权的治理效应，代理成本理论和控制权理论都认为，企业资本结构中一定的负债有利于公司治理效率的提高。本文以2002～2004年度沪市上市公司为样本（样本总量为2284组数据），对我国上市公司的债权治理效率进行了实证分析。结果表明，我国上市公司负债对其绩效有重要影响：债权比例与公司绩效在统计上呈显著的负相关关系，即上市公司的负债比例越大，其绩效也会越差，公司绩效与负债还存在着显著的二次关系，当资产负债率（DAR）为21．79％时，若其他条件不变时，债权对公司绩效促进作用最大，超过这一比例，债权与公司绩效呈负相关。本文对这一结果进行了原因分析，并提出了政策建议。     

REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT DEBT IN A BORROWING‐CONSTRAINED ECONOMY

We develop a two‐period, three‐class of income model where low‐income agents are borrowing constrained because of capital market imperfections, and where redistributive expenditure is financed by tax and government debt. When the degree of capital market imperfection is high, there is an ends‐against‐the‐middle equilibrium where the constrained low‐income and the unconstrained high‐income agents favour low levels of government debt and redistributive expenditure; these agents form a coalition against the middle. In this equilibrium, the levels of government debt and expenditure might be below the efficient levels, and the spread of income distribution results in a lower debt‐to‐GDP ratio.     

Putting ‘merchants of debt’ in their place: the political economy of retail banking and credit-based financialisation in Germany

Why did household debt in Germany not increase after the year 2000? This article offers a supply-side explanation for this deviant debt trajectory by tracing the historical evolution of retail banking in the German political economy. It argues that at the end of the 1990s and in the light of European Monetary Union, profitability issues and banking fragmentation became severe enough to interrupt the path towards credit-based financialisation as prevalent among other capitalist economies. These factors interacted with a traditional lack of tools and incentives for rapid credit expansion, even though they were renegotiated in the processes of financial liberalisation, internationalisation and innovation. By employing historical-qualitative as well as statistical evidence for the argument, the paper’s contribution becomes twofold. First, it introduces and conceptualises retail banking as a focal point in the analysis of national financial systems and their transformation. Second, it complicates the standard accounts of German non-financialisation and reveals the ‘contested’ character of financial reform.     

Does higher government debt link to higher social expenditure? New method,new evidence

Scholars believe that higher social expenditures are usually linked with higher government debts, whereas higher debts reduce social expenditures. However, it is reasonable to speculate that higher government debt may contribute to higher social spending, while fiscal deficits occur during a recession, which commonly creates greater demand for social expenditure. For a deeper investigation, this paper revisits the dynamic relationship between social spending and public debts in the time-frequency domain, using the novel wavelet-coherency analysis as well as the phase-difference technique to derive the co-moved and causal relationships between social spending and public debts in 13 OECD countries. The evidence identifies a dynamic relationship between variables. While higher social expenditures increase government debts, the shocks from government debts to social expenditures are conversely uncertain. We discover that higher government debt does reduce social expenditures, but it may be linked to higher social spending. The robustness of partial coherency and phase-difference discovers the role of a political party in the decision over social welfare programmes in the sample countries.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

个人住房贷款政策对房地产市场的影响研究

金融政策的调整对房地产业发展具有重要影响,这一点在许多国家已经得到证实,在中国也逐步成为政府调节房地产业发展的手段。近年来,个人住房贷款政策随着房地产调控政策的出台而随之变化,本文研究中国个人住房贷款政策调整在对房地产市场的影响,并对如何促进房地产行业的发展,做出相关建议。     

负债制度阈值下债务结构对公司成长性的影响

在证监会IPO申请审核标准的约束下,中国存在70%和20%负债制度阈值。以2001-201 0年中国A股9860家上市公司为样本,研究发现,当负债小于20%时,长期债务或银行借款对公司增长起限制作用,而且银行借款对公司价值造成负面影响;当负债超过70%时,由于债权人的预算软约束,长期债务不减反增,助长了公司非理性高速增长,以及银行放任公司高风险高增长,造成公司价值毁损;当负债在20%与70%之间时,预算软约束状况得到改善,但负债的正面治理效应仍不显著。     

稳健财政政策下国债的适度规模与管理

2005年起,我国开始实行稳健的财政政策,经济运行方式发生了变化,国债政策作为以前积极财政政策调节经济方向的重要工具也应采取相应变化以促进经济向前发展.由此加强我国国债规模管理,不仅应从总体上缩小国债规模,更应该注重国债资金的使用效率,对其加强监督管理.     

我国地方政府债券发行长效机制的构建研究

在经历了长期的沉寂之后,我国的地方政府债券在2009年正式启动。虽然近期在二级市场上,地方政府债券遭到投资者的冷遇,但地方政府债券的持续发行有其理论与现实基础,从中国经济长远发展的角度考虑,应当构建地方政府债券发行的长效运行机制。在短期内应尽快建立地方政府债券发行的激励与约束机制以防范地方债务风险,在中长期应不断深化财政体制改革,逐步实现真正的地方政府债券制度安排。     

THIS IS NOT A CREDIT CRISIS – IT IS A DEBT CRISIS

Using an analogy with ancient Babylonia as its leading theme, this viewpoint argues that the credit crisis is the symptom of an underlying problem. Fuelled by government policies, unprecedented debt levels were run up in industrialised countries over the last quarter century. Present policies of financial sector bailouts are not only an unwise use of taxpayers' money; they maintain economic structures opposed to what classical liberals such as J. S. Mill envisaged as a free-market economy.