Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

债权人相机控制的机理、类型与机制构建——以不完备契约理论为视角

Aghion-Bolton模型揭示了企业债权人相机控制的机理,即当企业事后出现可验证的特定信号时,一个有效率的所有权安排就是由债权人获取剩余控制权.在实践领域,英美及德日等国家的银企关系所形成的两种类型债权人控制经验模式均存在一定的缺陷,经验证据也表明我国尚未建立起债权人相机控制机制.兼顾美国企业债权人相机控制和日本企业债权人持续控制这两种债权人控制模式的优点并剔除它们的缺陷、建立企业与银行的一种新型合作关系,是构建我国企业债权人相机控制机制的可行思路.     

Italian households’ debt: the participation to the debt market and the size of the loan

This paper analyses Italian households’ participation to the debt market, separating the probability of demanding a loan from the probability of being rationed by lenders; on the supply side of the market specific attention is paid to enforcement costs of the loan contract when customers default. A new result is that the age of the household head acts essentially as a demand factor, rather than a variable influencing the lender’s choice. Both current and future households’ income increase the demand for loans and reduce credit rationing. Self-employed workers are more rationed by lenders. Credit constraints are also linked to the area where the household lives, partly because of different enforcement costs. The final part of the paper analyses the equilibrium quantity of the loan, for households who have a loan and are not constrained. The loan size is positively linked to household net wealth and income profile. An important contribution of this paper is the finding that, not only the participation to the debt market, but also the loan size is negatively affected by enforcement costs.      

WTO与竞争政策的冲突--论WTO下个人权利的缺失

尽管关税壁垒已经被大大消除,但反竞争行为如果得不到规制将会成为阻碍国际贸易自由化发展的新壁垒,使得贸易政策和竞争政策的冲突和矛盾愈发突出。由于贸易政策和竞争政策调整对象的不同以及基本理念和价值取向不同,尤其是对个人权利的不同关注,决定了两者在最终追求目标相互补之外的不完全相容性。现有的世界贸易组织所规范的贸易行为并没有涉及和考虑竞争政策尤为重视的经济活动参与者及其商业行为,尽管世界贸易组织协定中已有一些初步的竞争规则,但贸易政策和竞争政策的协调前景并不乐观。     

论个人人力资本投资决策

个人投资是人力资本投资的重要主体,是形成大规模投资的关键主体。通过人力资本投资的成本与收益方法分析了个人人力资本投资的决策依据,对激励机制进行了讨论,总结了影响个人人力资本投资的主客观因素,最后,提出激励个人人力资本投资的对策建议。     

阿根廷债务重组：现实困局与制度反思

自2001年主权债务违约后,阿根廷经历了2005年和2010年两次债务互换,但是,由于少数“钉子户”债权人的反对并诉诸司法程序,阿根廷债务重组陷入再次违约的重大风险。回顾阿根廷债务重组的过程以及以对冲基金为主的少数债权人对阿根廷的诉讼,可以清晰地看出阿根廷主权债务重组困境是由阿根廷自身非审慎性的债务重组机制、美国行为的双重标准以及全球主权债务重组基础机制缺失等造成的。随着重债富国问题的出现,主权债务重组中的国内外司法管辖权、私人部门与公共部门参与、集体行动条款与同等权益条款,以及合同法与法定机制等争论更加凸显,建立一个全球性主权债务重组机制是国际金融体系稳定的基础任务。     

捷克、波兰银行业免疫于欧债危机原因浅析

欧债危机中,捷克、波兰银行业保持平稳较快增长,文章将其原因归纳为：国内政治稳定,政府债务水平较低,劳动力具有竞争优势,与德国的经贸联系紧密,拥有独立的货币政策,未出现严重的资本外逃。文章认为两国银行业未来仍将保持增长潜力,并总结了两国银行业发展经验带来的启示。     

2012年中国A股市场分析报告

本文主要分析了2012年影响中国A股市场的主要因素。首先,简要回顾了2011年中国A股市场;然后,着重分析了影响2012年中国A股市场的主要因素。本文的主要结论是：2012上半年A股市场受国内经济周期性回落以及欧债危机等因素影响会继续振荡下行,下半年在外围经济和市场好转等因素作用下,A股会振荡上行。     

上市公司资产专用性强度对企业融资结构影响的实证研究

专用性资产是企业的一项特殊资产,本文主要通过对我国上市公司的实证研究来分析和探讨企业资产专用性强度与企业融资结构的具体的影响,最终验证了企业资产专用性强度与企业资产负债率呈正相关的关系。     

公务员个体人力资本产权残缺与纠正方式

公务员个体人力资本产权残缺不仅会使人力资本价值难以充分实现,也会导致人力资本产权价值大打折扣.而要克服公务员个体人力资本产权残缺,一方面要完善公务员收益分配制度;另一方面要改善公务员人力资本配置方式.