Write-down bonds,credit risk and imperfect information

A structural model of pricing Write-Down (hereafter WD) bonds under imperfect information has been developed to investigate the effect of WD bonds issuance on credit risk. Information is not only delayed but also asymmetrically distributed between managers and outside investors. We derive analytical solutions for corporate securities prices and find the issuance of WD bonds could significantly improve firm value via reducing bankruptcy cost. Our numerical results further demonstrate that the WD bonds issuance increases corporate risk tolerance and reduces the risk of bankruptcy and credit spreads under imperfect information.     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

福建省法人单位基础信息库建设的实践和探索

法人单位基础信息库（以下简称“法人库”）与人口基础信息库、自然资源和空间地理基础信息库、宏观经济数据库并列为我国“十五”期间规划和开发的4大基础信息库。法人库与其他基础信息库共同构成我国电子政务的基础信息资源,它们的建成和应用,对消除“信息孤岛”,推进信息资源开发,提升电子政务建设水平有重要作用。本文基于笔者的工作实践,以福建省法人库建设为研究案例,结合新公共管理理论,分析法人库建设中有待完善的几个问题,提出提升省法人库建设效能的几点个人想法。     

Use and misuse of information in supply chain forecasting of promotion effects

Demand forecasting is critical to sales and operations planning (S&OP), but the effects of sales promotions can be difficult to forecast. Typically, a baseline statistical forecast is judgmentally adjusted on receipt of information from different departments. However, much of this information either has no predictive value or its value is unknown. Research into base rate discounting has suggested that such information may distract forecasters from the average uplift and reduce accuracy. This has been investigated in situations in which forecasters were able to adjust the statistical forecasts for promotions via a forecasting support system (FSS). In two ecologically valid experiments, forecasters were provided with the mean level of promotion uplift, a baseline statistical forecast, and quantitative and qualitative information. However, the forecasters were distracted from the base rate and misinterpreted the information available to them. These findings have important implications for the design of organizational S&OP processes, and for the implementation of FSSs.     

Forecast quality improvement with Action Research: A success story at PharmaCo

There is a gap in the forecasting research surrounding the theory of integrating and improving forecasting in practice. The number of academically affiliated consultancies and knowledge transfer projects that there are around, due to a need for improvements in forecast quality, would suggest that many interventions and actions are taking place. However, the problems that surround practitioner understanding, learning and usage are rarely documented. This article takes the first step toward trying to rectify this situation by using the specific case study of a fully engaged company. A successful action research intervention in the Production Planning and Control work unit improved the use and understanding of the forecast function, contributing to substantial savings, enhanced communication and improved working practices.     

Optimizing the credit term decisions in supply chain finance

We study a credit term determination problem in the context of a supplier-buyer supply chain. The supplier's credit term decision is simultaneously made with its production and inventory decisions, and most importantly, it is impacted by the buyer's order quantity. We present a new game-theoretic framework to model this problem, which captures the interaction between the supplier's credit term decision and the buyer's order decision in a multi-period setting. An exact method based on nonlinear programming is implemented to obtain the optimal solutions. We apply our methodologies on a real world case. The computational results show that our approach significantly outperforms the heuristics with fixed credit terms, and either a short or a long credit term can be sub-optimal for the supplier in profitability. Our work offers the first data-driven model and solution approach that assists purchasing and supply managers to make optimal dynamic credit term decision in conjunction with production, ordering and inventory decisions in a game-theoretic setting.     

On the relationship between supplier integration and time-to-market

Recent operations management and innovation management research emphasizes the importance of supplier integration. However, the empirical results as to the relationship between supplier integration and time-to-market are ambivalent. To understand this important relationship, we incorporate two major recent developments. First, the literature has started to redefine supplier integration into two dimensions, supplier product integration and supplier process integration. Second, recent research has begun to examine spillover effects that extend beyond the direct costs and benefits of the supplier contract. Using survey data of 116 firms in the industrials, health care, and information technology industries, the results confirm our hypotheses and show that supplier product integration decelerates time-to-market while supplier process integration accelerates time-to-market. The results also show a positive relationship between supplier integration and the adoption of external technologies, which either decelerates or accelerates time-to-market depending on the level of internal exploration activities. Our research, thus, helps to open the ‘black-box’ of the relationship between supplier integration and time-to-market, and provides a theoretically grounded explanation to the apparent contradictory results in prior research about the influence of supplier integration on time-to-market. In addition, we contribute to research on spillover effects by emphasizing that information technology adoption and assimilation is an important spillover effect of supplier integration.     

How do services of owner-occupied housing affect income inequality and redistribution?

This paper aims at analyzing the redistributive impact that the inclusion of the imputed rental market value of owner-occupied housing would have if used for quantifying the ability to pay rather than imputation based on cadastral values. We consider the Spanish personal income tax as reference, due to the differential treatment that it provides for imputed income from owner-occupied housing, together with the exceptionally high percentages of home ownership in Spain. By means of micro-simulation we explore the consequences of alternative possibilities for dealing with implicit income from owner-occupied housing.     

信息技术在林火探测中的应用

本文在介绍信息技术的基础上。搜集了大量的林火探测方法,分析了人为探测的优缺点以及利用信息技术进行林火探测的必要性。信息技术在林火探测中的应用主要包括4个方面：红外探测、感烟探测、卫星遥感探测和视频图像探测。本文分析了各种信息技术的探火原理以及优缺点,并指出在不同的环境背景下应该选择不同的信息技术进行林火探测．必要的时候可以使用复合型的林火探测方式。一般来说,红外探测和感烟探测比较适合近距离的林火探测．因为红外和烟雾容易受周围环境的影响而有不同程度的削减;对于大面积的森林监测应该采用卫星遥感技术,但由于其覆盖周期长,应用于林火探测上尚有一定距离,在林火灾后评估方面有很好的应用效果;视频图像林火探测是一门新兴的信息技术,虽然有其他方法所不可比拟的优越性,但在应用过程中,其缺点也应受到人们的重视。随着信息技术日新月异的发展,林火探测技术将会越来越科学、准确。