广义供给定律与房地产投机

在复杂的市场中,商品供给量的变化主要受制于行业利润率与平均利润率的比较,呈现随平均利润率上下波动的趋势。广义供给定律从平均利润率与行业利润率的角度研究了商品供给与价格的关系,揭示了商品供给量变化的规律以及房地产投机的根源。     

Assessing Variability of Complex Descriptive Statistics in Monte Carlo Studies Using Resampling Methods

Good statistical practice dictates that summaries in Monte Carlo studies should always be accompanied by standard errors. Those standard errors are easy to provide for summaries that are sample means over the replications of the Monte Carlo output: for example, bias estimates, power estimates for tests and mean squared error estimates. But often more complex summaries are of interest: medians (often displayed in boxplots), sample variances, ratios of sample variances and non‐normality measures such as skewness and kurtosis. In principle, standard errors for most of these latter summaries may be derived from the Delta Method, but that extra step is often a barrier for standard errors to be provided. Here, we highlight the simplicity of using the jackknife and bootstrap to compute these standard errors, even when the summaries are somewhat complicated. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

Impact of macroeconomic surprises on the Brazilian yield curve and expected inflation

This study investigates how unexpected announcements in Brazilian and U.S. macroeconomic indicators affect the term structure of nominal interest rates, as well as implicit inflation expectations and real interest rates. Using daily data from March 2005 to December 2012, we employ an extended Vector Error Correction Model to take into account nonstationarity and the long-term equilibrium among different maturities of those curves. We found empirical evidence that macroeconomic surprises, domestic (Brazilian) and external (U.S. American), which lead the market to believe that there might be a higher risk of inflation or an overheated economy, raise nominal interest rates, implicit expected inflation and real interest rates. Surprisingly, in relation to the efficient-market hypothesis, we found that some macroeconomic surprises have a lagged effect on the yield curves. We also tested the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and found that the crisis affected significantly the direction and magnitude of the responses to macroeconomic news.     

基于价值创新的江苏省民办高职院校发展战略研究

本文试图探索江苏省内民办高职院校如何借鉴运用价值创新战略以面对生源困境,不断改进提升其顾客价值。     

商业银行利率风险计量模型及实证分析--非平移收益曲线条件下的随机免疫策略

传统的久期理论建立在收益曲线平移等严格假设条件上，因而其在实践中的有效性大大降低了。根据Markowitz（1959）等理论可推导出：资产价格的总风险包括收益的方差和全久期向量两部分；假若商业银行采取现金中性（cash neutrality）的资产交易策略，风险计量模型可转换为线性规划问题，从而可以构建基于利率风险最小化模型的随机免疫策略。也就是说，引入随机免疫的理念来替代经典的免疫理论，通过实证分析得出：无现金交易条件下的随机免疫策略能够降低利率风险。     

Can Poverty be Alleviated in China?

The 2000s witnessed the third poverty alleviation wave in China. Compared with its predecessors, the third wave distinguished itself by new interventions and redefined standards for the National Poor Counties. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the new program using a data set consisting of 1,411 of China's western and central counties from 2000 to 2010. It combines the propensity score matching method with the difference‐in‐differences approach, which helps to avoid selection bias and track the policy impact on variables of interest at each time point. It is found that the non‐western local governments tended to manipulate data on income and output growth to maintain the special transfer payments disbursed exclusively to the National Poor Counties. It is also shown that the program failed to improve the infrastructure and sanitary conditions in general.     

NAIRU Estimates for Germany: New Evidence on the Inflation–Unemployment Tradeoff

Meaningful estimates of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) within a Phillips curve framework require an identified tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. However, observations of inflation and unemployment are equilibrium points giving rise to a simultaneity problem. We assess conventional identifying assumptions in the literature on the German NAIRU in a general bi‐variate equations system of inflation and unemplyoment. We use a data‐driven method for identification based on shifts in the relative volatility of shocks to unemployment and inflation to identify the tradeoff for Germany. Our results support models which estimate a contemporaneous effect of unemployment on inflation and those which model inflation and unemployment jointly.     

Is There a Trade-Off between COVID-19 Control and Economic Activity? Implications from the Phillips Curve Debate

In this paper, we argue that the roles of public policies concerning COVID-19 can be better understood in light of the past discussions on the Great Inflation of the 1970s and the 1980s. Like the Phillips Curve in macroeconomics, the pandemic presents a trade-off between economic activities and something undesirable, which is, in this case, infection. Like the Phillips Curve, this apparent output-infection trade-off is an elusive one and it is lost in the long run. Containing infections calls for decisive policy action. This paper shows that we could design a reaction function, which sets the level of economic activity as a function of the state of infection, in such a way that the possibility of an infection explosion would be eliminated. Our empirical analysis suggests that Tokyo, New York, and London since September 2020 do not satisfy this desirable property.     

Examining the change in wellbeing following a holiday

Building on existing evidence that tourism contributes to wellbeing, this study aims to investigate how both hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing changes after a holiday. A longitudinal inquiry involving three waves of observation (during, the fourth week, and the eighth week following a holiday) was carried out in five tourism cities in China, using Latent Growth Curve models to analyze change. Results suggest that life satisfaction – an indicator of hedonic wellbeing – does not decline as expected whereas other indicators of hedonic wellbeing declined dramatically in the first month and then mildly in the second month following a holiday. Comparatively, eudaimonic wellbeing declined gradually and mildly during the same two-month intervals. Higher levels of optimal tourism experiences predicted slower declines of both hedonic and eudaimonic wellbeing. Theoretical, methodological, and practical implications are discussed.     

The puzzle of greenhouse gas footprints of oil abundance

The present inquiry lays a groundwork for the analysis of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of oil in the oil-abundant settings. To address the research question, the study puts forward a three-sector decision model, which provides a common ground for the assessment of the interaction of the structuralist and institutional factors influencing environmental pollution in the oil-reliant economies. The study shows that fossil-fuel abundance triggers forces, which induce diametrically opposed effects concerning atmospheric pollution. These are the rising carbon-intensive oil extraction and processing and fossil-fueled power generation versus shrinkage of the carbon-intensive manufacturing and growth of the low-carbon tertiarization. The theoretical analysis enables compartmentalization of the essential factors, which determine GHG emissions in the respective countries. To assess the significance of the proposed theoretical framework, the study employs multivariate panel co-integration techniques and two-stage fixed effects estimations for a dataset of 38 oil-producing countries for the time period between 1960 and 2018. In contrast to the existing literature, this study drives apart from the black box approaches that employ just one omnibus variable, per capita income.