Prospect of Global Sovereign Debt Crisis and Its Impact on China

欧美财政的可持续性备受质疑,全球主权债务危机的前景不容乐观,全球经济将进入低速增长期。与次贷危机的比较分析发现,欧债危机短期内对中国经济的负面影响不应被夸大。但从中长期来看,中国央行资产负债表资产方与负债方之间的结构性矛盾将越来越明显,对中国未来的金融稳定造成潜在的威胁,亟待采取必要的政策措施予以防范。     

银行卡平台营利性质对投资激励的影响

构建了基于双边市场理论的投资策略模型,分析了银行卡平台营利性质对平台投资者的投资激励的影响,发现在差异化营利市场条件下,非营利性银行卡平台具有更强的投资激励效应。同时,利用2002～2011年全球主要银行卡公司财务数据对投资激励效应的性质和强度进行了实证检验。在一定程度上解释了现实经济中非营利性银行卡平台的融资规模高于营利性银行卡平台的原因。     

European bank stress test and sovereign exposures

We use an event study methodology to revisit the bank stress test conducted by the European Banking Authority in 2011. Instead of only considering the final results disclosure, we consider six key official announcements during the stress test. Our results indicate that abnormal returns reversed over the course of the stress test and that the emerging sovereign crisis contributed to the stock market perception of bank health.     

A reexamination on the effect of bank competition on bank non-performing loans

This article examines whether competition in the deposit and loan markets results in a more stable or fragile banking industry. Following the assumption that deposit and loan competitions are not separable, a simple equilibrium model is developed. Then, using the aggregate time-series data of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC)-insured financial institutions, we estimate the generalized VAR model of deposit rate (DR), interest margin between the loan and DRs, and non-performing loan ratio. Our results support the competition–fragility hypothesis.     

中央政府供给地区生态补偿的内生性缺陷——多数规则下的分析

我国现在实施的生态补偿以财政补偿为主,其中中央对地方的财政补偿所占的比例最高.从地方公共品供给的角度看,在多数规则下,中央政府供给地区生态补偿具有内生性缺陷.在政府供给诸如环境保护类型的正溢出性地方公共品方面,中央政府的纵向转移支付有存在的必要,但若占居主导地位则弊大于利.地方政府之间应该加强横向联系,以更多地承担地区生态补偿的责任.     

Hitting and hoping?: Meeting the exchange rate and inflation criteria during a period of nominal convergence

This paper analyses the effect of the nominal convergence process on the ability of Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) to meet both the inflation and the exchange rate criteria for Eurozone entry. The size of these convergence effects on the exchange rate (for inflation targeters) and for inflation differentials (under a fixed exchange rate) is estimated for a variety of different convergence scenarios. The key result, robust across all scenarios, is that countries with fixed exchange rates will find it much harder to simultaneously meet the criteria than inflation targeters. Probit estimates on the ability of a country to get inflation below the reference value under a fixed exchange rate show a strong effect for the relative price level.     

Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries

The recent euro area sovereign debt crisis has shown the importance of market reactions for the sustainability of debt in advanced economies. This paper calculates endogenous government debt limits given the markets assessment of the probability to default. The estimated primary balance reaction function to growing debt has the “fiscal fatigue” property (a loosening fiscal effort makes the primary balance insufficient to support rising debt) at high debt levels. The combination of this feature of the primary balance reaction function with the market interest rate reaction to growing debt determines the government debt limit beyond which debt cannot be rolled over. An application to OECD countries over the period 1985 – 2013 with a model-based risk-premium shows that current debt limits are high for most of the OECD thanks to particularly low risk-free interest rates. It also shows for some countries that current debt levels are not sustainable without a change in government behaviour. Most importantly, the framework illustrates the state contingent nature of debt limits and therefore the vulnerability of governments to a change in macroeconomic conditions and to market reactions. Last, computations with an estimated interest rate reaction to public debt illustrate that debt limits are lower in the euro area than in other countries because of a sharper market interest rate reaction to rising debt.     

Can fintech improve the efficiency of commercial banks? —An analysis based on big data

This paper assess the potential impact of Fintech on the banking industry. Results suggest that, for commercial banks, development of Fintech leads to increased profitability, financial innovation, and improved control of risk. Overall, by using financial technology, commercial banks can improve their traditional business model by reducing bank operating costs, improving service efficiency, strengthening risk control capabilities, and creating enhanced customer-oriented business models for customers; thereby improving comprehensive competitiveness. We also find that levels of such outcomes vary with levels of respective bank’s use of technological innovation.     

"义乌商圈"融资发展研究——以"稠行模式"为例

改革开放以来,以中小企业为主要栽体的"商圈"迅速发展起来,"义乌商圈"就是其中最具特色的代表之一.浙江稠州商业银行作为一家扎根于义乌的"市场银行",与"商圈"同成长、共命运,积极开展金融创新,探索出了一条适合"商圈"发展的"稠行模式".本文通过对"稠行模式"经营特点的分析,以期为我国商圈融资发展提供新的思路和对策.     

长沙大河西战略的正效应研究

为探索＂两型社会＂发展的新路子,2007年底长沙市委研究决定扩大岳麓区的版图,并将它打造成一个先导区,由点到面带动整个城市群的发展,这个战略被命名为＂大河西战略＂。大河西战略实施至今,对长株潭地区的经济增长产生了明显的正效应,也给湖南的区域经济发展注入了有力的支持。