信用突变下商业银行信用风险预警模型及应用

在信用突变环境下,传统的基于模糊评价技术的信用风险预警模型存在较大的功能局限性。对此,文章运用偏好信息熵与物元可拓理论相融合的偏好熵权物元可拓方法,构建了基于偏好熵权物元可拓的商业银行信用风险预警模型,并进行了预警模型的实证分析。文章认为,基于偏好熵权物元可拓的信用风险预警模型的优势在于,通过偏好信息熵与物元可拓理论相融合的偏好熵权物元可拓方法,使得信用突变下信用风险的预警结果具有较好的平滑性与客观性,此外,该模型的综合关联度预警功能,提高了信用风险预警结果的精确度,很好地解决了信用突变下商业银行信用风险的预警问题。     

央行货币政策报告文本信息、宏观经济与股票市场

本文利用金融情感词典和文本分析技术,分析中国人民银行货币政策执行报告的文本情绪、文本相似度和文本可读性等多维文本信息,刻画央行货币政策执行报告的文本特征,探究货币政策报告的文本信息与宏观经济和股票市场的关系。实证研究发现,货币政策报告的文本情绪的改善会引起显著为正的股票市场价格反应,报告文本相似度的增加会引起股票市场波动性的显著降低,报告可读性对公布后股票市场的波动性影响不显著。货币政策报告文本情绪还与诸多宏观经济指标显著相关。进一步研究发现,引起股票市场显著反应的是报告文本情绪中反映货币政策指引的部分,而反映宏观经济历史状态的部分对股票市场的影响不显著。本文从文本大数据分析角度证明了我国央行沟通的有效性,对国内央行沟通相关研究形成了有益补充。     

Reputation,risk-taking,and macroprudential policy

This paper examines the role of macroprudential capital requirements in preventing inefficient credit booms in a model with reputational externalities. In our model, unprofitable banks have strong incentives to invest in risky assets when macroeconomic fundamentals are good in order to avoid the stigma of being assessed as low ability by the market. We show that across-the-system countercyclical capital requirements that deter such gambling are constrained optimal when fundamentals are neither extremely weak nor extremely strong.     

Flight to liquidity and the Great Recession

This paper argues that counter-cyclical liquidity hoarding by financial intermediaries may strongly amplify business cycles. It develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which banks operate subject to agency problems and funding liquidity risk in their intermediation activity. Importantly, the amount of liquidity reserves held in the financial sector is determined endogenously: Balance sheet constraints force banks to trade off insurance against funding outflows with loan scale. A financial crisis, simulated as an abrupt decline in the collateral value of bank assets, triggers a flight to liquidity, which strongly amplifies the initial shock and induces credit crunch dynamics sharing key features with the Great Recession. The paper thus develops a new balance sheet channel of shock transmission that works through the composition of banks’ asset portfolios.     

Institutional failure or market failure?

We investigate the effect of the power of creditors, property rights protection, and institutional quality, on bank profits using a panel of 498 banks from 46 countries. Results show that better institutions and stronger property rights protection reduce bank profits, while stronger power of creditors drives up bank profits significantly. Results imply that better institutions and enhanced property rights protection lead to greater flow of credit allowing firms and investors to undertake more profitable ventures. By extension, stronger creditor rights erect steeper barriers to external finance for firms and investors. National indicators of economic freedoms may be more important to lowering the spread than strict creditor rights. Seemingly, credit markets fail when economic institutions fail or when governments intervene into these markets in ways that impede the safety and soundness of financial transactions and private contracting.     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

Connecting National Safety Nets: The Dialectics of the Basel II Contracting Process

Basel II consists of supervisory guidelines negotiated by representatives of central banks and national regulatory commissions that were members of the Basel committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). The BCBS is itself a regulatory response to globalization, which is connecting national safety nets in market-driven ways. A country’s financial safety net is a social contract established by short-lived agents for principals in long-lived economic sectors. Restraints placed on the authority of the BCBS members to contract for their principals by domestic politics explains: why Basel II authorizes individual countries to implement the agreement in markedly different ways; why US implementation of Basel II ran into so much doubt, controversy, and delay; and how the implementation debate set small and large banks and the Federal Reserve and other federal regulators against one another.

对中国人民银行征信法规建设与执法效能的思考

征信法规建设的滞后使得中国人民银行分支机构征信工作缺乏法律依据,一定程度上制约了征信执法效能的发挥。为提高征信执法效能,应进一步完善《征信管理条例》并使之尽早出台,加快制定企业征信方面相关办法、《个人信用信息基础数据库管理办法》实施细则和信用评级方面相关办法等。     

国有商业银行亏损问题研究

由于产权单一、多次降息、资产质量差、无序竞争、财政虚收等十个方面的主客观原因 ,导致了我国国有商业银行严重的经营亏损 ,潜藏着巨大的金融风险 ,但由于有国家信用的强力支撑 ,暂时不会出现金融危机。要解决国有银行亏损问题 ,必须为其创造良好外部环境、进行产权制度改革、发展全能银行和加强金融监管。     

汇金公司增持四大国有商业银行对A股市场的影响——基于市场数据的比较分析

汇金公司作为国有重点金融企业出资人,在证券市场极度低迷时增持四大国有商业银行股份有利于维护市场信心,稳定国内金融形势。通过事件分析法对汇金公司增持公告前后上证指数收益率进行分析,结果表明增持短期提升了上证指数累积非正常收益率,但A股市场对增持的反应程度依次递减。此外,采用邹至庄突变点检验结果表明增持公告短期对上证指数造成了明显冲击,成为市场收益的一个突变点,但并不能影响股市中长期的趋势。由于汇金公司持股比例已经非常高,进一步增持空间有限,因此未来稳定A股市场的手段应该更加多样化,不能仅靠单一的增持。