Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules

All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions that are embedded in stochastic population projections. This allows us to separate, for each demographic outcome and under different policy rules, the expected and realized effects of population ageing on public finances. In our Finnish application, demographic uncertainty produces a considerable sustainability risk. We consider policies that reduce the likelihood of getting highly indebted and demonstrate that, although demographic forecasts are uncertain, they contain enough information to be useful in forward-looking policy rules.     

Public goods provision: Unit-by-unit cost-sharing rules and the core

In a simple model of one public good producible from one input, we show that unit-by-unit cost-sharing rules have two properties. First, a unit-by-unit cost-sharing rulealways chooses a core allocation. Second, every allocation in the core will be chosen by at least one unit-by-unit cost-shring rule. We argue that costs should be shared on a unit-by-unit basis. We propose a simple mechanism to implement the family of unit-by-unit rules. Received: 18 May 2005, Accepted: 6 December 2005 JEL Classification: H41, C72, D78 I thank Hervé Moulin for helpful comments and discussions. All errors are mine. Financial support from the Hong Kong Research Grants Council under grant RGC-DAG99/00.BM52 is gratefully acknowledged.     

On the public provision of the performing arts

In this paper, we present a model in which the performing arts are modelled as congestible public goods. In accordance with empirical evidence, the production of seat capacity is assumed to be subject to fixed costs. We estimate the parameters of the model's demand and cost functions using German data. Using these estimates in a subsequent social choice analysis, we show that the current situation in the German performing arts sector is best described by a directorship that under the influence of a selfish theater lobby maximizes only the welfare of the spectators. Such an equilibrium, characterized by too low ticket prices and too large capacity, is most likely to establish if citizens have a very positive ex ante notion of the performing arts.     

Government size,composition of public spending and economic growth in Brazil

The performance of the fiscal policy is largely affected by the relationship between government size, composition of public spending and economic growth. We use a theoretical framework to find optimal relations among these variables and confront them with a panel data for the Brazilian states. Private capital and government spending are substitute inputs in production as the Brazilian states require provision of public spending to fill gaps in the underdeveloped private sector. Public investment and current government expenditures are combined in fixed ratios in the overall government spending due to strong rigidity of the public budget. The optimal share of public investment is considerably lower than current expenditures, as occurs in developing countries characterized by low economic dynamism. Finally, the average tax burden from the data is below the estimated optimal level, meaning that there is space for increasing tax rate without harming economic growth for some Brazilian states.     

Parties,divided government,and infrastructure expenditures: Evidence from U.S. states

This paper examines the impact of parties and divided government on infrastructure expenditures for transportation, education, and social services in U.S. states. As infrastructure expenditures are considered a bi-partisan priority, we hypothesize that divided governments expand infrastructure spending compared to governments under true Democratic or Republican control. We test this hypothesis using U.S. state-level data over the period 1970 to 2008 and find that divided governments indeed increase expenditures for these budget categories. Specifically, divided governments spend more on transportation than unified Democratic governments, and more on education and social services than unified Republican governments. The effect is most pronounced for the core infrastructure of transportation and even stronger when only looking at capital outlays instead of total expenditures.     

重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制研究

在突发事件应急管理过程中,科技研发支撑作用十分关键,亟需建立突发公共卫生事件科研应急体系长效运行机制。基于科技研发应急体系的复杂性、适应性特征,从主体属性和体系架构两个层面入手,分析重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系的复杂适应系统特征,运用复杂适应系统理论模型和动态闭环螺旋模型,研究重大突发公共卫生事件科技研发应急体系运行机制。研究发现,重大突发公共卫生事件背景下,科技研发应急体系具有复杂适应系统的7个基本特征,是典型的复杂适应系统;科技研发应急体系中,科研攻关专家组、诊疗医院、科技部门等科研主体具有各自内部模型,并通过6大标识进行聚集;科技研发应急体系存在事件—需求引导、主体协同、资源交互、成果转化机制。同时,新冠病毒肺炎疫情应对实践表明,疫情防控救治进程中科技研发应急体系存在并遵循上述运行机制。     

The political economy of preferential trade arrangements: The case of Japan

ABSTRACT

Support for open trade regimes varies. We analyze Japanese survey data on individuals' preferences for TPP, unilateral import liberalization, and East Asian economic integration, and compare factors influencing policy preferences. First, despite the massive negative campaigns against TPP, 42.8% of individuals support Japan’s participation in TPP, vs. 21.1% against. Second, economic factors do matter for an individual in determining his/her policy preference over TPP. Third, noneconomic factors such as gender, age, access to accurate information, and attachment to hometown also feature as determinants. Fourth, although preferences over TPP and other policy options are positively correlated, some factors decrease TPP support but do not undermine support for two other less-politicized policy options: lack of access to accurate information and some industry and regional TPP-specific factors. Criticism impacts negatively on FTA policy preferences. Finally, we discuss economic policy implications for relationships between China, Japan, and Korea.

Abbreviations: FTA: Free trade agreement; JA: Japan agricultural cooperative; TPP: Trans-Pacific partnership agreement.     

Rotating group representatives and group members’ requests in repeated public goods game

ABSTRACT

This study investigated the effect of group representatives on contribution behaviour in response to group members’ requests in repeated public goods games. Data came from 135 students in 15 groups enrolled in the experiment, grouped in the following treatments: no group representatives (NR, NRG) and group representatives (R1, R2). We also tested initial requests wherein the group members’ initial requests (i.e. NRG, R2) mediated the positive relationship between individual-level contribution preferences and group contributions. We used a fixed-effects GLS regression and IV regression to analyse the effect of group representatives and group members’ requests. The results indicated the following: (a) rotating group representative/group members’ requests was related to group contributions at the session (within-members) and group (between-group) levels; (b) the reactions to members’ requests positively predicted group contributions; (c) subjects in the no group representatives treatment formed their requests by relying more on previous group contributions than subjects in the group representatives treatment, who relied more on the previous group members’ requests; and (d) the initial requests explained long-term contribution levels, which resulted in variations in group contributions observed between the NRG and R2 treatments. Our findings highlight the role of rotating group representatives in stimulating cooperation among members, while group members’ requests impel individuals to make contribution decisions at the group level.     

Religion,administration & public goods: Experimental evidence from Russia

In this paper, I argue that religion matters for the provision of public goods. I identify three normative foundations of Eastern Orthodox monasticism with strong economic implications: 1. solidarity, 2. obedience, and 3. universal discipline. I propose a public goods game with a three-tier hierarchy, where these norms are modeled as treatments. Obedience and universal discipline facilitate the provision of threshold public goods in equilibrium, whereas solidarity does not. Empirical evidence is drawn from public goods experiments run with regional bureaucrats in Tomsk and Novosibirsk, Russia. The introduction of the same three norms as experimental treatments produces different results. I find that only universal discipline leads to the provision of threshold public goods, whereas solidarity and obedience do not. Unlike in Protestant societies, in Eastern Orthodox societies free-riding occurs at lower than at higher hierarchical levels. Successful economic reforms in Eastern Orthodox countries start with the restructuring of the middle- and lower-ranked public sector. Authoritarian persistence is defined by the commitment of the dictator to overprovide public goods.     

Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970–1999

This paper analyzes changes in poverty and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the structural relationship between poverty reduction, income growth and distribution is the same for MENA and other developing economies. Prior to 1985 rapid growth sharply reduced poverty. After 1985, despite very low income growth, a rising share of income accruing to the lowest quintile meant that the average income of the poor rose more rapidly than that of the non-poor. These unusual poverty dynamics were primarily due to international migration. Remittances both increased per capita incomes in labor exporting countries and increased the share of income accruing to the poor.