产业生态理论视角下湖北省科技服务业发展政策支持体系研究

科技服务业是现代服务业的重要组成部分,是区域科技创新体系的重要支撑。科技服务业的发展对产业结构升级与区域创新能力提升具有重要推动作用。从产业生态理论视角,探讨科技服务业发展生态系统,阐述湖北省科技服务业发展概况及生态环境,在此基础上构建湖北省科技服务业政策支持体系框架,并提出政策取向。     

科技政策智库及其咨询服务能力研究

科技政策智库是指以科技政策领域重大问题为研究方向,以科技政策咨询人员为骨干,运用知识、信息与经验,识别科技政策咨询需求,进行调研、分析、研究与判断,通过搭建合作研究平台和业务支撑网络,提供咨询服务的研究结构。科技政策智库具有4个基本特征：独特性、服务性、综合性、成长性。科技政策咨询服务能力建立在一定基础资源（人力资源、数据资源、技术资源、组织管理、组织文化）上,由基础资源要素支撑咨询服务运作,科技政策咨询服务通过咨询过程完成。市场竞合、知识集成、项目组织、学术传播构成了一条完整的咨询服务链条,组成了科技政策咨询服务的过程要素。科技政策咨询服务能力由咨询过程要素和基础资源要素共同构成。     

技术创新系统的功能分析框架

近年来,以特定技术作为分析出发点的技术创新系统（TIS）思路被提出。该思路强调对创新系统运行及其目标实现具有重大作用的活动（activities）或过程（processes）,并称之为创新系统功能。系统功能之间既可以形成良性循环,加速系统的成长;也可能由于某个功能的缺失或不足而出现恶性循环,阻碍系统的发展,甚至使之崩溃。良性循环和恶性循环在一定的条件下会相互转化。在介绍和分析系统功能组合以及功能之间互动机制的基础上,提供了一个评估技术创新系统功能运行的分析框架,以期从功能的角度识别导致系统失灵的原因,为政策制定者提供干预目标。     

避专利工艺与海正药业的技术能力升级

以企业技术能力升级的相关理论为基础,采用海正药业的3个他汀类产品为案例分析对象,对海正药业他汀类产品在应用“避专利工艺”过程中所采取的做法和获得的收益进行了分析与总结。研究发现,通过采取“避专利工艺”,海正药业获得的不仅仅是产品上的收益,更重要的是提高了企业的技术能力,尤其是国内药企普遍缺乏的创新能力。     

Determinants of patent value: Insights from a simulation analysis

This paper contributes to understanding the determinants of patent value. By drawing on a real options approach, we develop a theoretical model of patent value, which explicitly considers the uncertainty about future value. On this basis, we rely on Monte Carlo simulations with data from a case study in a large chemical firm to estimate patent value according to our model. In the simulation analyses, we compare an R&D project with patent protection and the same project without patent protection. The difference of the values of the two projects is the surplus in profit that may be expected from having a patent covering the project. This surplus is regarded as the value that is directly attributable to the patent. The results of the simulation analyses indicate that the development costs and expected net cash flows of a patent-protected project are higher than of an unpatented project. The higher net cash flows outgrow the increased development costs, and patent value is positive. However, this value is smaller than the overall project value of the patent-protected R&D project.     

A categorical modeling approach to analyzing new product adoption and usage in the context of the building-materials industry

A high proportion of non-adopters is prevalent in any market where the product under consideration is relatively new or has a low acceptance rate. This results in a low proportion of adopters in a representative sample. In adoption or product usage modeling such high proportion of zeros in the dependent variable may be addressed by zero-inflated models, by modeling the product adoption and usage as a function of two latent processes. This paper considers a zero-inflated ordinal-probit model for investigating adoption and usage of innovative wall-cavity insulation materials among residential homebuilders in the US. This study assumes a three-step adoption process of innovative housing materials, namely, trial adoption, intermediate adoption and complete adoption. The study uses 5757 responses from a combined ‘Annual Builder Practices Survey’ dataset comprising ten cross-sectional yearly surveys, undertaken by the NAHB Research Center, from 1996 to 2005. The research results indicate that though a higher proportion of large firms are more likely to adopt innovative insulation material, they continue using established products while slowly increasing their use of the innovative material over time. However, when smaller homebuilders adopt an innovative insulation material, it replaces the existing product from their material usage portfolio at a faster rate.     

Limit to improvement: Myth or reality?: Empirical analysis of historical improvement on three technologies influential in the evolution of civilization

The evolution of civilization appears to have primarily resulted from continuous improvement made possible by technological advances. A group of social evolutionists and economists have identified, among others, energy, transport, as well as information and communication to be the three most influential technologies. On the other hand, a number of eminent scholars have cited several forces, natural, physiological, technological, as well as environmental which can place a limit on on-going improvement.The purpose of this paper is to empirically explore the continuous improvement process as well as the limit placed on these three technologies. Using the framework of both connected and disconnected multiple technology S-curves and X-factor, historical improvement data on these three elements have been analyzed. The results of our analysis indicate that improvement in general has continued without limit mainly due to a series of emerging new technologies. These emerging technologies can be either connected or disconnected from the existing mature technologies. Our preliminary analysis shows that much of the past improvement comes from new technologies that on first serious application appear to be substantially superior from earlier technologies. In addition, enormous continuous improvement, which has accompanied both connected and disconnected new technologies appear to have played the critical role in sustaining the evolution of civilization. The paper discusses a number of policy implications and suggests topics for future research.     

The origins of the concept of ‘foresight’ in science and technology: An insider's perspective

This article explores how the term ‘foresight’ originally came to be used in connection with science and technology by the author and SPRU colleagues in 1983. It analyses how the rationale for its use evolved over time, first providing a ‘catchy’ title for a study (‘Project Foresight’), and then a convenient shorthand for the focus of that study, before eventually coming to formally signify a new approach to looking systematically into the future of science and technology, an inclusive and wide-ranging process that differed appreciably from that of traditional ‘technology forecasting’. The paper reflects on the importance of concepts and terminology in the field of science policy research, providing examples of how an inappropriate term or phrase can damn the prospects of the research having an impact on policy, while a more politically astute use of terminology can greatly enhance the probability of making a significant impact. The paper also examines other early uses of the concept of ‘foresight’ in the United States and Canada at about the same time. In addition, it highlights the conceptual similarities between foresight and la prospective, a novel approach developed in France not just for looking into the future but also for shaping or even ‘constructing’ the future of our choice, an ambitious aspiration that it shares with foresight. This case-study on the origins and early evolution of ‘technology foresight’ illustrates the essential importance of terminology in differentiating key concepts in social sciences (where it sometimes gives rise to unfortunate priority disputes), and particularly in the case of policy research.     

How firm capabilities affect who benefits from foreign technology

We explore how firm capabilities affect the diffusion of technology brought with foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturers from 1988 to 1996, we measure how the productivity of differing domestic firms responds to the entry of multinational competitors. We find that firms with investments in research and development and firms with highly educated employees adopt more technology from foreign entrants than others. In contrast, firms that have a small “technology gap,” meaning that they are close to the international best-practice frontier, benefit less than firms with weak prior technical competency. This finding suggests that the marginal return to new knowledge is greater for firms that have more room to “catch up” than it is for already competitive firms.     

Technology commercialization intelligence: Organizational antecedents and performance consequences

External technology commercialization, e.g., by means of technology licensing, has recently gained in importance. Despite imperfections in technology markets, out-licensing constitutes a major technology commercialization channel. Although the identification of licensing opportunities represents a significant managerial challenge, prior research has relatively neglected these activities. Therefore, we develop the concept of ‘technology commercialization intelligence’ (TCI), which refers to the observation of a firm's environment with particular focus on identifying technology licensing opportunities. Grounded in a dynamic capabilities perspective, we test five hypotheses regarding organizational antecedents and performance consequences of TCI, drawing on data from a survey of 152 companies. The empirical findings provide strong support for the importance of the TCI concept. The findings deepen our understanding of the discrepancies between successful pioneering firms active in technology licensing and many others being less successful. The results have major implications for technology exploitation in open innovation processes.